This thread is for those that are not worried about losing a little 'face' by posting any ante post bets that they have or intend to place in the future for the flat season until the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe. I shall start with the few that i have placed so far: Stewards Cup - Evens and Odds EW at 20s and will hopefully be apprentice ridden again. St Leger - Win Nathaniel at 8s and 7s, Sea Moon at 16s small EW and 10s to win, Brown Panther at 8s. Reason i have backed the 2nd 2 is to try and recover losses after the rumours about Nathaniel was not running! Arc - Win - Workforce at 6s. EW Nathaniel 50s and 33s but to small stakes as unlikely to run. Hope to hear of some good bets soon
Baraan for the Arc at 16s - I am convinced this horse is a superstar - would have walked the French Derby if not for whoever held him up 50 lengths last
Nunthorpe - Bapak Chinta @ 14/1 PP 21st June thanks to twitter If Radiohead could run to third in the Nunthorpe 2 seasons ago then Bapak Chinta could win this renewal. I think he is the real deal and I also think that he will get a certain SDS riding him. I actually think his biggest rival could be Best Terms of Hannon if he sends her to the race. The other danger would be Lady Of The Desert but she has had injury issues. I think he is a cracking EW bet, but he is now only 8/1 which is too small with the chances of him not getting to the race.
Nass: I really admire that horse, knuckled down very well and when Phil Makin says this horse is a 'proper' horse i take note. Not sure SDS will get the ride as Phil knows the horse well as he rides out for the yard too. Either jockey would perform as well as the other IMO. I see SDS price to win the Championship have tumbled, he certainly has the hunger to do it!
There are currently ‘no ante post dockets, in my pockets’. The one that I would be interested in on the level would undoubtedly be Nathaniel in the ‘King George’ and ‘Arc’. This is as good a middle distance performer as I have seen on the level this term and these should be his aims rather than a Newbury Group 3 and the old Leger. Over the sticks there are a number that appeal (doubt that I will wager for quite a while though as the markets are unlikely to move much for at least another 3 months). Namely Tataniano in the Champion Chase at 40/1, Mr Henderson’s Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle at 12/1, Mr Henderson’s Mossley in the RSA at 20/1, Mr Henderson’s Spirit Son in the Champion Hurdle at 12/1 and quite possibly ‘the jewel in the crown’ of these bets and the ‘hope of the county’ Montbazon in the Supreme Novices at 16/1. Would add though that wagering in any novice heat at the festival is these days very risky given the number of options now available to connections. However, I feel that the 3 listed above, if they make it, would all go for the nominated races. Phillip Makin won’t ride Bapak Chinta, in the Nunthorpe, as he won’t have a prayer of doing the weight. Am hoping though that Mr Ryan keeps the mount ‘in house’.
Chuckles he isn't going to let a claimer ride in a Group 1, if he does then I hope owners start pulling horses out of the yard. You get the best jockey available and that would be SDS at the weight needed.
Nassau, that’s a bit harsh. Where’s your sense of sentiment and adventure gone this morning. Sometimes, the right decision isn’t always the correct or most logical one you know, old boy. And I’m sure that she could give the horse as good a ride as anyone. In reality I’m sure that SDS is the hot fave to get the ride next month but lets not forget how in the past such an audacious move (to give a big ride to a claimer or relatively inexperienced rider) has come off and been roundly applauded by everyone as a result. That Papin race that Bapak Chinta runs in first is next Sunday by the way (24 July) and I see that there are still five 2YO’s left in the Nunthorpe including quite intriguingly one from the Candy yard which has yet to run (the filly Gull Rock).
Barney, nepotism is one of the things I hate about the sport. Amy Ryan is a claimer for a reason, she isn't good enough to ride off level weights and if they forfeit three pounds to let her ride it then they are fools. Off level weights would you rather have a horse ridden by Ryan or SDS? I think its a quite obvious result.
Amy has come on leaps and bounds this season BUT she is without doubt not up to top scratch yet. Any trainer would quite sensibly bypass her off levels and take a proven jockey. I do believe sentiment will go out the window and they will have SDS in the plate cometh the hour
It would be interesting if Dream Ahead and Bapak Chinta could both make the line up for the Nunthorpe on 19 August at York. Although plenty would complain about the weight-for-age that the two-year-old would receive, it would give an interesting comparison between one of last year’s top two-year-olds and (potentially) one of this year’s. It would be great if Hayley Turner could do the weight because she could ride against the horse that gave her a first Group 1 winner! As for the other ante-post events I will not be touching the St Leger and I would not be touching Michael Owen’s horse as the Royal Ascot handicap form was clearly shown to be nothing more than that in Germany last time out. I note that rainbowview likes Baraan for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe because of the theory that its tardy start in the Prix Du Jockey Club cost it any chance at Chantilly; however, I am inclined to listen to what Jim McGrath had to say about that race: (1) the horse did not appear too keen to put its best foot forward at the business end of the race; and (2) who is to say that it will not fall out of the stalls in future races? The winner, Reliable Man, is still unbeaten and probably heading for Longchamp too. For what it is worth, I think that Baraan’s colours may be carried to victory in this year’s Parisian showpiece, but by last year’s third Sarafina. I have not afflicted her with my ante-post jinx yet but that will be where it will be going.
QM, in regards Brown Panther, do you think he went too fast in the heavy ground in the German Derby? I thought he came out of the race with a good deal of respect for his efforts. If Nathaniel turns up and one the the AOB Derby team it could be another very good St Leger.
I also have Maybe for the 1000 guineas next year at 14s - as a few of you may have seen on fugees before her win at Ascot she runs again tmz so hopefully she will put in a grand performance. Will be looking to lay her off once she wins the Marcel Boussac
Nass, I have not actually seen the Hamburg race so it would be unfair to comment on how Brown Panther ran, but the German Derby did not look like a great Group 1 race on paper. Before the race I thought they were tilting at windmills stepping up from a soft ground handicap into a Group 1, so defeat was no surprise. Obviously fifth in a foreign classic is a very respectable effort as a first attempt in pattern company, but he will need to find much more improvement to be a Town Moor contender. My expectation is that the St Leger line up will contain at least a couple of Aidan O’Brien runners. They will probably field Seville so that I can complete a Classic defeat hat-trick backing it! I want to see Nathaniel run on better ground before going overboard on his St Leger chances as the soft ground at Royal Ascot in the latter part of the week means that I will tear those pages out of the form book.
Nathaniel is now a short price for the Leger. I've put a small investment on Fiorente as I think he's better than the bare form and at 10s warrants interest. However I'm still not sure he'll stay the extra 500yards.
Brown Panther had everything in his favour in the German Derby, he had a perfect draw and was given an uncontested lead, yet he still wasn't good enough. Then we take into account how poor the German Derby is, the fact a class 2 handicap winner could go off as a 7/4 favourite, just highlights the lack of quality in Germany. I think Brown Panther will be a listed performer nothing more. The Leger isn't an easy race to judge at this stage but I believe Nathaniel's form is top notch, he is a worthy favourite
IF Nathaniel turns up at the Leger he is a massive bet HOWEVER they still remain confident that he wont! For them to be considering the King George they must really believe he has improved since that last run. Cannot wait for the horse to run again.
GDC, as I am making a rare venture to Ascot for the King George, I would be delighted to see Nathaniel show up as there is every prospect that this year’s race will not carve up into a pointless match like the Eclipse Stakes did at Sandown. Having said that there won’t be a drop of rain in Berkshire for the next ten days and half the big names will defect because of the ground.
Fingers crossed for some rain then mate, you will get a superb race if the ground is safe. Nathaniel will also want rain i think to run mate
