This is a fine article (written a year or two ago) which I pinched from a gentleman called 'Toffee'; I hope he doesn't mind me repeating it on this forum. The basic betting rules of Alex Bird at the end of the piece are very interesting too. I was astounded at the 100k he made on Mill Reef, he really did spot one there, right from the start. I did note that 'Toffee' did not mention the one black spot on Alex Bird's otherwise superb betting record, and that was his catastrophic foray into the United States during the early days of their international meeting in the Autumn (now called the Breeders' Cup). He mistakenly thought British and Irish horses were unbeatable, and paid the price; really lost his expensive shirt. However, was very happy to see his final plunge on the 1990 Ayr Gold Cup was a successful one, on the aptly-named Final Shot. Quote: I hope this is worthwhile reading to those who are new and old to the racing world...... Alex Bird was the original professional gambler who made a fortune after the war at Britain's racecourses. He learned his trade working for his father who was a bookmaker but soon decided that it would be more profitable to be on the other side. He had many different ways of beating the bookmaker, but probably his most famous was his success on betting on the result of photo finishes. Unlike today photo finishes would take about 5 minutes to develop so there was always an active betting market on the outcome. Bird very early on noticed that when horses crossed the line together an optical illusion meant that the horse on the far side invariably looked like he had won. He also discovered a simple technique which meant the illusion didn't occur. He stood at an elevated vantage point as near to the winning post as possible, he would keep very still, close his left eye and create an imaginary line across the track at the finishing line. He used this simple system for the next 20 years to make himself a fortune. With a reported 500 consecutive successful bets. Another favoured method he used to make money was to use his influence in the ring to create a false favourite. He often placed huge bets often as much as £50K at a time however he couldn't get these sort of bets laid in the betting ring so he would employ an army of helpers around the country placing bets in off-course bookmakers. If Bird fancied a horse but felt the odds were to short he would place a bet of up to £10K on another horse in the race. He would then ensure that it was "leaked" that he had placed the bet. Prices would then dramatically alter as the "mug" money poured onto his horse. This meant that the price of the horse that he wanted to back heavily and clandestinely off the course would drift out in the market. His army of helpers would then back the horse off course all over the country. Alex Bird like Phil Bull was also a keen student of race times unlike the majority of the betting public. It was this interest which alerted him to the ability of Mill Reef. As Bird explains, Mill Reef broke the clock on firm ground and won the Gimcrack Stakes in the mud. That's the mark of a great horse. This prompted Bird to have his biggest ever bet of £60k on Mill Reef in the Gimcrack at 4/6. He won easily by 4 lengths and the following season became the seventh Derby winner in eight years backed by Bird. During Mill Reefs career Bird won over £100K on the horse. In 1990, the year before he died, Bird summoned up one last coup. His friend, owned a runner in the Ayr Gold Cup. He backed it from 40's to 10/1. The result were never in doubt. The name of the horse? Final Shot! These are Alex Birds Golden Betting Rules: 1. Never bet when there is a change in the going. There is nothing to upset form quite as much as a change in the going. 2. Be aware of the overrounds being offered by bookmakers and don't bet when they are unfair. At some smaller meetings bookmakers will sometimes create a book 40% or 50% in their favour. 3. Be an Each-Way thief. Do this by finding races with 8-10 runners which are not handicaps, and where there are only a few form horses in the race. Then oppose the favourite and combine the second and third favourites in each-way combination bets. 4. Look for up and coming apprentices. A good apprentice with a 7lb claim can be worth his weight in gold! 5. Never bet on the first show, you will find that the majority of runners increase in price. Taking 'second show' prices will increase your winnings by 10% over a season. 6. Never bet in handicaps. 7. Never bet in 3year old maidens, particularly those only for fillies. please log in to view this image Unquote. Erm, just one thing, Alex didn't always follow his Rule 6. The Ayr Gold Cup is, and always was, a handicap!
Betting on photo finishes was a great money spinner. Those days are long gone unfortunately. Some bookies were so slow I once backed a horse that had already won. Few comments, even though I'm not qualified to criticise. 1. The going change obviously makes a lot of sense but it can work in your favour if the going has changed to the horse's favoured going and all/most of his race preparation was actually on the same going. 2. Who cares if the bookies are betting overround if you get good odds on the one you want to back. 5. Can't agree with the "never". More times than not, the horses I fancy shortens up (even if they don't win ) Cheers Swanny. Could create some debate.
Mostly sound rules. If there is a rule that I have finally learnt it's to close up shop when the going changes to soft. I may not necessarily stop completely but stakes are reduced to the most minimal fun stakes on the odd yankee to make the tv races interesting on a Saturday. I would also add that if you are ever going to make money it will be between June and August as there is such a lot of racing due to evening meetings, the ground should be good/firm and form established. It's always possible to find those two or three really good looking bets on those days. His rule of never taking the first price is actually obsolete now everywhere but on track or in shops as the greatest gift to punters aside from Betfair since the time of Alex Bird is the advent of best odds guaranteed, I was amazed when this started and was convinced it would be a gimmick very quickly withdrawn, now most offer it and I am amazed those that do not offer it have any customers.
Yes, have to agree, this was a different era and things have changed radically (with the exception of Coronation Street); don't think Alex Bird would have believed that B.O.G. would ever happen? However, one or two of his rules still apply, especially being able to recognize early an apprentice with real ability and promise. Bird made a bunch of money on Pat Eddery in the jockey's early years on the racetrack.
Interesting read. Golden rule number 1 intrigues me. Weather forecasts are far more accurate these days and I think you can anticipate going changes far easier than perhaps would be the case Bird's day. I also think that racecourses are often economical with the truth when advising on the state of the ground. How often does a going change announcement follow the first race. Also being a follower of a number of trainers blogs they often complain that the going was far easier than advertised. The forum's favourite gin guzzler made an interesting comment about the state of the Grand National ground to explain Triolo D'Alene's lacklustre effort there. He said the ground had been watered down to soft. ATR record it as good and the Racing Post as good to soft. In short if going changes are an issue don't bet, ever!
Only bet on AW tracks and only when all the horses have reliable form on the specific AW surface and trainers have the same surface for prepping.and only when you have watched the runners' in their previous runnings on the surface, stable is in form, jockey has good record on the track, selection has good draw and is not odds on. That's the next 6 weeks out of the way..
I have a copy of his book up in the loft somewhere Still available on amazon - a very good read http://www.amazon.co.uk/Alex-Bird-Secrets-Professional-Punter/dp/0356125807
What Bird did was to back in each way doubles, and the races he chose were ones with 8 or 9 runners with odds-on favourites. He then backed the second favourites in each way doubles. Two such second favourites placed would almost guarantee a profit, and that happened frequently, but the big pay day came when they both won. Another strategy that a lot of big punters use is the Kelly Criteion Work out the chance, in percentage terms, that you think the horse has of winning. Multiply this by the horse’s actual odds. Subtract the probability, again in percentage terms, you believe the horse has of losing. Divide the result of the above by the horse’s actual odds. The answer is the percentage of your betting capital you should risk. i.e You think a horse has a 25 per cent (3/1) chance of winning and its actual odds are 4/1. That’s all you need to know to work out the Kelly Criterion. Firstly, you multiply the chance you think the horse has (25 per cent) by its actual odds, in this case 4/1. That is, 25 per cent multiplied by four equals 100 per cent. Now you must deduct from this the probability you think the horse has of losing. This is 75%. So you deduct this figure from the 100 and you are left with 25 per cent. The final step is to divide this by the horse’s actual odds, which are 4/1. So, 25 per cent divided by four equals 6.25 per cent. Therefore, that is the correct percentage of your bankroll to bet. Very easy to work out yet very hard to stick to if you are a gambler like most of us are!
Jeeeez TC, I fluked maths in my finals at school (a modern-day miracle) but, regardless of this, by the time I would have worked that lot out the race would have been over, like yesterday........... Will certainly look for that book just for interest. Many thanks. Have a bunch of really good old books on racing in my 'archives', including Phil Bull's biography, and John Brown's (coffee boy to MD of Willie Hill's) and Scobie Breasley's too, etc. They are all great reads about truly amazing guys.
I remember often reading stories about the activities of Alex Bird when I was an errant teenager just starting out punting and in my early twenties. When I first starting working for a bookie, I found it quite easy to call most of the photo finishes just from seeing the race in real time; as in those days there was only the BBC, Channel 4 and, when it started, satellite racing from SIS. Watching the races, I quickly learned the camera angles near the winning post and scarcely ever got the call wrong – and it was not always the far side that looked to have won. I largely agree with Golden Betting Rule No. 1, although as a flat punter I have slightly modified it to never bet when the word “soft” appears in the going. Nowadays if the going changes, trainers can pull their horses and most have the sense to do it with the top horses. No. 2 does not really apply these days because the off-course layers make up for illiquid markets at small meetings. I cannot recall the last time I saw a 140% book here and although the market is usually more over-round in Ireland than the UK it does not get that bad. I think the bookies have largely caught up with No. 3 now; hence the number of races where the front three in the market are all 5/1 or less. This might still come up regularly enough over the sticks if odds-on shots fall or unseat. No. 4 is a bit of a given – halfway through the season, everybody will have identified the two or three apprentices and their mounts’ odds will contract accordingly as they pick up plum rides. I disagree with No. 5 (if you know that the horse is going to be popular, get on early) and No. 6 (better odds when half the horses still have as little chance as they would at level weights). I do agree with No. 7 as I rarely bet on maiden races of any description and I would add to it selling races and claiming races (effectively trainer/owner handicaps). If Alex Bird were around today, he would spend his day watching Racing UK and At The Races whilst cleaning up on his laptop with a Betfair account.
You can't go too far astray if you follow horses who's riders have lime green in their colours. And always put your betting slip in your top left pocket.
This really is a debatable topic now mr Swan , as with all stratergies times enevitably change our views . Then there is obviously some very well planned offers from the enemy themselves (crookmakers). Which there are a few I like and I know others on here do too , one namely is best odds guarenteed which is tempting and very rewarding if you know what you are doing but also namely on handicap races. One of my preferences these days if I find a cert at around double figures (Few and far between I know) is the lucky 15 . Yes I can here your sigh and see your frown Swan but sometimes you have to be one step ahead of the enemy , with 4 times the odds on one winner guarenteed the use of B,O,G on the coupons too they can be very rewarding. Especially if you can throw a few other big odds in not as easy as it seems but very rewarding if planned right. New age punting are there any other stratergies out there if so lets be having them !
The number 1 rule in my punting manual (available at all good bookshops). Amazingly successful system. Types have trialled others on the forum but none has proved as successful as this one. Other selected golden betting rules in my tome (available at all good bookshops) include: - Never wager in a ‘Pertemps Qualifier’ as half the field are running solely to qualify for the Final and amongst the other 50% there are more plots than in an Agatha Christie novel. - Never back a horse after it leaves Mr Henderson’s barn as it’s impossible to improve on perfection. - Always back the runner with the loveliest name. If it’s a filly double your stake and if it’s a filly trained by Mr Henderson treble it.
I do not 'frown' on any comment on this thread, U.C., but, as I said, it was a different era. Alex Bird was a legend in those days, and is probably the only punter who was ever 'applauded' on entering the members' bar at Newmarket one unforgettable day. Don't think that will ever happen again either. As for myself? Just a game of course, that IMHO is the only way to go. Was far too busy in my working days, most of the time abroad, to bet seriously, but by golly I did enjoy my racecourse visits during my breaks, always via the Timeform and Raceform kiosks. Always tried to go near 'opening time', get a nice table in the restaurant, and study. Nowadays, I just muck around, as you can well see, but I still enjoy the big meetings. Here endeth the lesson.
No offence taken mate, but wish I was a wise one! Have great regard for Timeform still, but on a regular basis find it a bit expensive. However, they still hand out plenty of 'freebies' which are worth looking at. As for jockeys' colours, as some of our learned colleagues commented, well I don't know. Sort of reminded me of one of my Mum's betting 'strategies', in a strange way. My Dad asked her once why she always backed a certain jockey (Ken Gethin) who often rode long-priced winners? "Oh", she said, "because he's the only one with a nice moustache"...........
Swanny, Swanny, Swanny, you know as well as I do that a mother allways know best. Besides, it's been bourne out in wind tunnel testing, that into a stiff breeze, a lovely mustache can create a very nice slip streaming effect. I've heard it can give a rider as much as four or five lengths advantage.
