Two years ago, Long Run started his second season campaign in the UK as a warm favourite for The Paddy Power Handicap Chase, but could only finish third behind Little Josh. Some pundits saw it as a slightly disappointing performance, carrying 11st 1lbs off a rating of 158. Others saw it as a decent effort for a first season run over a distance short of his best. However, he then proceeded to run away with The King George off a 162 rating- and cemented that with an emphatic victory in The Cheltenham Gold Cup off a higher, revised mark of 179. Yesterday, at Cheltenham, Paul Nicholls’ Al Ferof contested the same race in likewise his second season- The Paddy Power Gold Cup. Whereas Long Run had been targeted at the RSA Chase in his novice year ( finishing third to Weapon’s Amnesty), Al Ferof had campaigned at two miles in his first season’s chasing- taking on Sprinter Sacre in The Arkle Chase. I must admit that, watching that race, my lasting impression was that Al Ferof lacked scope when jumping fences at Cheltenham but, in hindsight, maybe I was being unfair to the horse- given the tremendous scope that Sprinter Sacre showed when they jumped together at the fences. On paper, Al Ferof seemed to have a huge task in yesterday’s race, carrying 11st 8lbs off a mark of 159- especially given the relatively testing conditions. It’s fair to say that, if he had given a performance comparable to that of Long Run, it would have enhanced his reputation and given a boost to his prospects for top chases over two and a half miles- and beyond. As it transpired, his decisive victory, carrying 11st 8lbs ; jumping well and laying up with the pace virtually all the way; and, excepting lightly weighted Walkon, galloping the whole field into submission; must rate as one of the most impressive performances seen by a second season chaser in recent years. So what now for the horse? The obvious target must be to run him over three miles in The King George at Kempton. Doubtless his revised rating will rise far more than the 4 lbs rise accorded Long Run, but the interesting questions to members are.... Do you see him as a potential winner of that race for which Long Run is the ante-post favourite? I notice that 8/1 is available for Al Ferof. Is this value? And what do you think of his chances in next March’s Cheltenham Gold Cup- for which 20/1 is available? Moreover, do you think he will stay the distance? Either way, after his performance yesterday, Al Ferof must rate as a serious contender for any top chase he enters.
I think the best way of putting his performance into context is by comparing his handicap mark for the race to another previous winner, a certain Imperial Commander who won off 139! I truly believe that Al Ferof is going to win the Gold Cup in time, I just worry that this season they may not try and overface him and let him go in the Ryanair at the festival. I think he is an ideal type for Kempton Park too, he has the pace to lay up with the best and I think he will stay a trip with some ease.
Nass, yes, that comparison with Imperial Commander says a lot! If all goes well with him, I hope they go the CH. Gold Cup route . He'll be eight in March, so why not be ambitious?
Yesterday was a really impressive performance and he travelled so superbly, he jumped himself to the front almost against Rubys wishes- he was always going to stay and has looked a stayer even from his Supreme Novice days- the way he mowed down classy animals late on told you then that 2 and a half miles would suit and it was even more obvious over fences. The King George is the ideal race for him- strong travelling, rhythmical jumping is the name of the game there and his cruising speed will be good enough against the best 3 milers. A Gold Cup? 3m 2f is a major test for any horse so you can only ever answer that question after they have run in it. His form with Somersby and Finians Rainbow over 2m looked very solid on paper and now a PP Gold Cup win off a mark of 159- where he and Walkon were well clear of the rest, must make him an animal around the 165 mark, minimum. I think the form is strong. Rock On Ruby delivered a similar performance in a handicap hurdle off top weight last season and won decisively- and I think when you start doing that you are advertising yourself as Grade 1 material. Al Ferof looks a Grade 1 horse, and now he just needs to be bought along gradually and see how good a Grade 1 horse he is against his peers. 8/1 for the King George is a fair price. But there is a long way to go yet and we need to see if he can maintain form throughout his campaign.
My great fear is that he may be an "early season" type, or just doesn't take many races. Thinking back to this time last year he was near the top of the Arkle market after a scintillating display at the open meeting in the novice chase, slamming Astracad 7 lengths with the rest a mile clear. He followed up at Sandown but was given the fright of his life by For Non Stop, before stepping up to open company in the Victor Chandler and running well to finish 3rd behind Somersby and Finian's Rainbow. The merit of that form is difficult to rate precisely because the winner is such an inconsistent bugger and the 2nd may not have been fully wound up. He then made that juddering error in the Arkle which cost him all chance, and was then massively disappointing at Aintree. Whilst certainly impressive yesterday, he needs to build on that, and show us he can string together a run of performances at the highest level.
He's run brilliantly twice at the Cheltenham festival in March so I don't think he's an early season horse. I'd be more inclined to draw a line through the second half of last year than to think he doesn't perform at his best late in the season.
A great performance on the day, but a race that will probably be of little worth in regards to form, come March.
Recent winners and ratings they won off, plus weight carried and the mark they were raised to for their next run: 2012 Al Ferof 159 (11-8) --> raised to ???? 2011 Great Endeavour 147 (10-3) --> raised to 151 2010 Little Josh 146 (10-5) --> raised to 155 2009 Tranquil Sea 148 (10-13) --> raised to 157 2008 Imperial Commander 139 (10-7) --> raised to 157 2007 L'Antartique 146 (10-13) --> raised to 154 2006 Exotic Dancer 139 (11-2) --> raised to 149 2005 Our Vic 149 (11-7) --> raised to 158 2004 Celestial Gold 136 (10-2) --> raised to 142 for the Hennessey which he also won, subsequently raised to 152 2003 Fondmort 150 (10-13) --> raised to 160 2002 Cyfor Malta 154 (11-9) --> raised to 164 2001 Shooting Light 137 (11-3) --> raised to 149, won next time out at Ascot and upped to 162 As far as I can see, he is the highest rated winner of the race since Dublin Flyer won in 1995 off 163, and before that Bradbury Star won it in 1993 and 1994, both times of an official rating of 169. From the last 10 years it seems the handicapper reckons a performance somehwere in the 150s is needed to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup. The distance Al Ferof beat Walkon (getting 16lbs) and Nadiya De La Vega (getting 14lbs) would confirm this was an "above average" performance, certainly into the 160s. Did the ground play a part? Most likely, it looked pretty testing out there and I am loathe to take the form too literally. This puts Al Ferof in the King George picture, but I wouldn't be rushing to take 8/1 about him - I doubt he will be much shorter, if any, on the day.
Not mad about the form of a 21f race with only 6 finishers from a field of 18. Not mad about the horse either,opined as much last year,and yesterdays race needs to be taken with a pinch of salt imo. KG shaping up nicely mind you!
I'm still kicking myself I didn't have a bet on him on Saturday - I went for Nadiya de la Vega each way instead. the fact that he has beaten Sprinter Sacre at the festival demonstrates his potential. the form of that Supreme Novices race last year just gets better and better. 1st Al Ferof - great chaser in the making 2nd Spirit Son - injured after destroying Cue Card at Aintree 2011. who knows how good this horse could be 3rd Sprinter Sacre - could be a superstar 4th Cue Card - Like Al Ferof has a big future 5th Recession Proof - Again like Spirit Son has long term injury
I would be surprised if he didn't get a mark in the middle to high 160s after that run, beating Walkon by three lengths would put him in the low 160s if the handicapper suggests that Walkon was the horse to draw the line through. Personally I expect him to draw the line through NDLV who was beaten 15 lengths. I expect the handicapper will go down the line of saying that NDLV ran to form and that whilst he isn't raising Al Ferof by the relevant lbs to lengths he will raise him 6 or 7lbs. He will probably take the ground as the rationale for the bigger gaps between runners. If he is a mid 160s horse that would put him alongside or just behind the likes of Alberta's Run and Riverside Theatre in the handicap, with those horses getting higher marks after running in Graded stakes races. I wouldn't be surprised to see Al Ferof finishing the season in the 170s on the handicap, which would put him bang in contention for the GC or Ryanair. As for the King George, surely with GC running so poorly and doubts about the trip for Sizing Europe (and with Long Run yet to run this season) I think he may be one who gets supported in the market. After all his win was in a better race than Cue Card's and he isn't trained by the farmer!! Additionally, I would suggest that a few of the others at the top of the market may not run, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him shorter on the day
king george stamped all over for alferof i really fancy him this year nicholls horses are on fire can not wait for the tingle creek
