please log in to view this image In Professor Reade's 10,000 simulations, Leeds United won the title 54.8
well the explanations are along some of the lines [ simple forms ] that have in the past and occasionally I use. However Prof Reade seems to state he has factored in 10,000 "changes?" and run the programme 10,000 times ! [ he says "What we're saying is 'imagine there were these 10,000 different realities, here's how often in these 10,000 different realities this thing would have happened' ] …… As we all know …. football aint like that! wiz a few times in the past has put up "the computer predictions on how the season will end?" that basically over 16 weeks? [ so wrong never saw it after that! ] and the BBC? ran a computerised prediction for weekly games and that disappeared after a while as it was so c*** at forcasting the games. The professors model is based on …. … "We look at all the scorelines in the history of football essentially, and that gives us a sense of how likely a team is to score zero, one, two, three, four goals and so on," Professor Reade tells BBC Sport. " INTERESTING .. the model is based on a past history [ how many years / division? ]. It states "gives us a sense" as opposed to a definitive. FOR a test I did 6 games results. [Fixtures = 1 team City and 5 opponents ]... using an old logarithm … using off the table position -home …. away … average goals … points .. ave pts from top 8 mid 8 bottom 8 etc … in the past when live it gave fairly accurate predictions. IT GAVE 9PTS.... [log was was set up for 6 games] City played 43 and 64 points [ other teams were BBurn; Sheff; Florest; Cardiff; Hull; Midds ] with 3 games to follow / to go 9pts left so max 73pts. Neither one actually? [ mine doesn't ] allow for teams having new player/s or players back from injury or a player getting injured [ which one?] the performance of the ref …. player getting sent off … eg computer says we lose v team??? but sometime in game they get 1 sent off … so losing that game could be a draw or even a win!!! [ works other way round and time of sending off ] SO there is challenge [ wait for EP to pick up on it and do /comment similar .. top plagerizers ] me v PROFESSOR READE!!!!! PITY HE CANT OR DOESNT DO THE POINTS.... maybe his % would calculate them? will publish my final points when I work out last 3 games but cant do that till at least 3 games have been played....
OK after a good nights sleep and everyone got TIME on their hands HERE is the C H A L L E N G E . .. … CHALLENGES against Professor Reade 9 GAMES LEFT everyone on here has an opinion how good or bad City is or how TEAMS fold at the final hurdle .. or teams "unfancied put together a run of results sneak into top 6 and go on to WEMBGLEE … Hardest challenge predict the final table positions of and points total of top 12 teams... predict the final table positions of and points total of top 9 teams... predict the final table positions of and points total of top 7 teams... at season end the winner will be the positions of the present top 12 [ whether choosing 7 ..9 .. or 12 games.] I should be able to work out a scoring system … similar to the final league table a few of you have done. Will try and post some help pages …. [ formats to help ] use excel sheet... THE TEAMS ARE THE ABOVE TEN.... plus Swansea [ ignored by Reade but on same points as Blackburn ] and Derby.
…............... …............ DER ….. CAR . ….. FUL . … LEE … FOR … PNE …… BRC …... BLA …. WBA …. BRE ……. SWA …. MIL …. STO …… BAR …. ….. CHA …. BIR …. MID …… SHE …. HUL …... QPR …… WIG …. REA …. LUT . …. HUD 5 .. LEEDS UTD ….... ….A.. ….. ..A… ….. ..H.. … ….x… … ….x… … ….x… … ….x… …. ….A.. …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….A.. …. ….x… …. ….H.. … ….H.. …. … ….H.. …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….H.. …. ….x… 4 .. WEST BROM ….. ….H.. ….. ….x… ….. ..H.. … ….x… … ….x… … ….x… … ….x… …. ….A.. …. ….x… …. ….A.. … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….x… …. … ….x… …. ….H.. …. ….x… … ….A.. …. ….H.. …. ….H.. … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… 5 .. FU L H A M …….. ….x… ….. ..H.. ….. ….x… … ..R…. … ….A.. … ….x… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ..R… …. ….H.. … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….x… …. … ….x… …. ….H.. …. ….x… … ….A.. …. ….x… …. ….A.. … ….A.. …. ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… 4 .. BRENTFORD ….. ….A.. ….. ….x… ….. ..R.. … ….x… … ….x… … ….H.. … ….x… …. ….x… …. ..R… …. ….x… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….A.. … ….H.. …. … ….H.. …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….H.. …. ….A.. …. ….x… …. ….x… 5 .. NOTT FORE ….... ….A.. ….. ….x… ….. ..R… … ….x… … ….x… … ….A.. … ..H.. …. ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… … ..H.. …. ….x… …. ....H.. … ….A.. …. … …...x… …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….A.. …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… …. ..H.. 5 .. P NORTH E ….... ….H.. ….. ….H.. ….. ….x… … ….x… … ..R… … ….x… … ….A.. …. ….x… …. ….x… …. ..R… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….A.. …. … ….x… …. ….H.. …. ….x… … ….A.. …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….A.. …. ….x… 5 .. BRIS CITY …..... ….x… ….. ….H.. ….. ….x… … ….x… … ..R… … ..R… … ….x… …. ….A.. …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….A.. …. ….x… …. ..H.. … ….x… …. … …...x… …. ….x… …. ….A.. … ....H.. …. ….H.. …. ….x… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… 3 .. MILL WALL …..... ..H.. ….. ….x… ….. ….x… … ….x… … ….x… … ….x… … ….x… …. ..H.. …. ….x… …. ….x… … ..H.. …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….A.. …. … ….A.. …. ….x… …. ....H.. … …...x… …. ….A.. …. ….A.. … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… …. ..H.. 6 .. C A R D I FF …….. ..H.. ….. ….x… ….. ..R… … ....R… … ….x… … ..R… … ..R… …. ..H.. …. ….x… …. .….x… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….x… …. … ..H.. …. ….x… …. ….A.. … ..….x… …. ..H.. …. ….x… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… 5 .. BLACKBURN ….... ….x… ….. ..R… ….. ….x… … ..R… … ….x… … ….x… … ..R… …. ….x… …. ..R… …. ….x… … ….x… …. ..R… …. ….x… … ….A.. …. … ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… … …...x… …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….A.. …. ..H.. …. ..H.. …. …...x… 4 .. SWANSEA C ….... ….x… ….. ….x… ….. ….x… … ..R… … ..R… … ….x… … ..R… …. ….x… …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….x… …. ..R… …. ….x… … ….x… …. … ….x… …. ….A.. …. ….A.. … ….H.. …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….x… …. ….A.. …. ..H.. …. …...x… 7 .. DERBY CTY ….... ….x… ….. ..R… ….. ….x… … ..R… … ..R… … ....R… … ….x… …. ….x… …. ..R… …. ....R… …. ….x… …. ..R… …. ….x… …. ….x… …. … ….x… …. ….A.. …. ….x… …. ….x… … ….x… … ….x… … ….x… … ….H.. … ….x… … ….x… legend.. vertical list 12 teams with how many they play of other top 12. teams across top is the teams they play H = Home … A Away R == RESULT BETWEEN THE 2 TEAMS has already been worked out . x is do not play them....
it is quite simple to use have tested on my 13 and 15 year olds... eg ...take leeds first 3 games you predict DERBY 3PT CARDIFF 1PT FULHAM 1PT [ START YOUR LEAGUE TABLE ]… Leeds plyd 3 pts 5 Fulham plyd 1 pts 1 Cardiif plyd 1 pts 1 Derby plyd 1 pts 0 you finish off all LEEDS GAMES EVENTUALLY YOU GET DOWN TO DERBY … THE ONLY GAMES YOU HAVE TO PREDICT ARE 2 … BIRMINGHAM & READING I will need to do the same as my algorytihm only gives me points TOTAL FOR CITY …. When I get into something I do not stop, AT 5AM IT WAS BETTER THAN 11.30AM WX WISE!! Based on 8 opponents it gave city a total of 69.57 pts
how mine progresses League table plyd PTS NOW FINAL LEEDS … 9…………… 17 ADD 71 = 88 pts West brom…….. 9…………… 14 ADD 70 = 84 pts Fulham…….. 9 …………… 14 Brentford ……….. 1 …………….. 3 Cardiff ……… 1 ………… 1 Blackburn…. 2 ………… O Swansea…….. 1 ………… O Derby………… 2 ………… 1 Table before I did Brentford League table plyd PTS NOW FINAL LEEDS … 9…………… 17 ADD 71 = 88 pts West brom…….. 9…………… 14 ADD 70 = 84 pts Brentford ……….. 9 …………….. 16 Fulham…….. 9 …………… 14 Cardiff ……… 1 ………… 1 Blackburn…. 2 ………… O Swansea…….. 1 ………… O Derby………… 3 ………… 2 PNE …………. 1 …………… O Table after Brentford the GK'S just put random 1 pt or 3pts and completed the table in 1 hour and 7 mins [ a few errors on totalling ]
What a load of rubbish, the 'Supercomputer' only takes into account the recent form. I wonder if they would have predicted a collapse from Leeds last season, or Villa's late surge to the play-offs.....
absolutely, I think they published about 5 times? every 3 games? ...if you did a pts / games on their publication then it pretty much gave you the same result as they published!!! there is no way you can truly forcast. If you take in 10,000 bits of information then run it x number of times ...which combination is the most accurate?
League table …. with 3 teams to predict … I didn't know the format was so easy, no wonder the grand kids had fun with it [ plus the £2 bribes! ] ………………….. plyd PTS NOW FINAL LEEDS …….….. 9…………… 17 ……….. ADD 71 ….. = 88 pts West brom…….. 9…………… 14 ……… ADD 70 …. = 84 pts Fulham…….….. 9 …………… 14 ……… ADD 64 …... = 78 Brentford …….. 9 …………….. 16 …… ADD 60…..... = 76 NfLOREST ….. 9 …………….. 15 ……. ADD 60…..... = 75 PNE ………...…. 9 ……….…… 16 ……. ADD 56 ….... = 72 CITY ……...….. 9 …………..…. 17 …… ADD 55 ……. = 72 Cardiff ……...… 9 ……...…… 15 ………..ADD 54 …. = 69 Millwal ….…… 9 ……….………15 ……… ADD 54 .……….. 69 Blackburn…….. 9 …………..… 15 ……..ADD 53 …………..68 Swansea………... 9 ……….…… 12 ………..ADD 53 ………. 65 Derby…………... 9 …………...… 12 ….……ADD 51 ….……..63 LOOKING to be like on the last game v PNE I forcast a draw!!!!
WELL COMPLETED MY TABLE the more teams there are as you work down the list the less you have to forcast! not happy with it … based on my "guesses on league position / derby game/ relegation in bottom 6". DERBT CTY should get more than 7 pts!!!
after a lot more effort / a couple different goes 83 LEEDS UTD 81 WEST BROM 78 NOTT FORE 76 FU L H A M 76 BRENTFORD 71 MILL WALL 69 P NORTH E 69 BRIS CITY 69 C A R D I FF 66 BLACKBURN 66 SWANSEA C 64 DERBY CTY well hopefully next season will be ours
nice to see the championship football page looking more normal ...... fixtures, league table ..... in 5 days the big kick off ….. and we will see if the professors 10,000 different combinations workout any better than my 4 attempts .. in trying to fair I probably took to harsh a line with predicting city results I think in my minds eye will CITY will win 5 draw 1 and lose 3 and finish with 71 points
after 27 06 ....amended 2 games plyd 83 LEEDS UTD ........ 80 points........ my revised 2nd team ...78 81 WEST BROM........ 76 points 78 NOTT FORE ........ 76 pts ....... 76 FU L H A M........ 73 points …….73 76 BRENTFORD........ 82 points ........ my revised top team .. 82 71 MILL WALL........ 66 points ……..64 69 BRIS CITY...…...... 63 pts 69 C A R D I FF....... 75 points ...73 66 BLACKBURN........ 66 points ….63 66 SWANSEA C........ 63 points ….64 64 DERBY CTY........ 70 points 64 P NORTH E........... ..61 points
forcast …………………….projected after 3 games 83 LEEDS UTD ........ 80 points........ my revised 2nd team ...78 81 WEST BROM........ 76 points 78 NOTT FORE ........ 76 pts ....... 76 FU L H A M........ 73 points …….73 76 BRENTFORD........ 82 points ........ my revised top team .. 82 71 MILL WALL........ 66 points ……..64 69 P NORTH E........... ..61 points 69 BRIS CITY...…...... 63 pts 69 C A R D I FF....... 75 points ...73 66 BLACKBURN........ 66 points ….63 66 SWANSEA C........ 63 points ….64 64 DERBY CTY........ 70 points
WITH A 3 GAME ADVANTAGE eVIL POST THROWS IN A FINAL TABLE Leeds United - 87 …………………...12 pts more from 18 West Brom - 84 …………………...10 pts more from 18 Brentford - 81 …………………...12 pts more from 18 Fulham - 76 …………………...9 pts more from 18 Nottingham Forest - 75 …………………...8 pts more from 18 Cardiff City - 70 …………. …………. 9 more pts from 18 Derby County - 67 …………………...7 pts more from 18 Swansea City - 65 …………………...8 pts more from 18 Millwall - 65 …………………...9 pts more from 18 Preston North End - 65 …………………...8 pts more from 18 Blackburn Rovers - 63 …………………...7 pts more from 18 Bristol City - 63 …………………...8 pts more from 18 Sheffield Wednesday - 59 QPR - 58 Reading - 57 Birmingham City - 57 Huddersfield Town - 53 Middlesborough - 53 Charlton Athletic - 52 Stoke City - 51 Hull City - 50 Barnsley - 48 Luton - 47 Wigan Athletic - 46 MY SELECTION PRE 9 GAMES 6 METHODS 83 LEEDS UTD 81 WEST BROM 78 NOTT FORE 76 FU L H A M 76 BRENTFORD 71 MILL WALL 69 P NORTH E 69 BRIS CITY 69 C A R D I FF 66 BLACKBURN 66 SWANSEA C 64 DERBY CTY please log in to view this image 10, 000 ATTEMPTS!