1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

A Month of Nass

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by NassauBoard, Jun 23, 2019.

  1. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    Hi all,

    Humour me if you can, I want to spend the next month doing a little test. Rather than just putting a horse up a day I want to put in a bit of hard work and see what dividends come from it.

    So how am I structuring this? Well, I am picking one flat race a day, either where the pace is likely to be strong or very weak, and then putting up a selection and rationale in that race. I then want the forum to suggest what they like in the race, and give any views on the selection.

    So to keep this tidy, I will be popping level stakes on the selections. 2pt win, 1pt EW or 2pt place. Prices will be quoted and a tally kept.

    Current odds on me being in profit by the 24th July are high, (Barney can come on and play bookmaker with that - I wonder if he survived Ascot!).

    So here we go with selection number one.
     
    #1
  2. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    8:00 Wolverhampton

    This looks to be a handicap in which we have plenty of pace with Billy Roberts, Bhodi, Street Poet and Subliminal all likely to want to get on with it. As such I am looking for a horse who can travel into the race and pick them up off the turn from home.

    Celtic Artisan is an obvious starting point, having won at the course last time out, finishing well to beat Street Poet in the process. He travelled one off the rail for most of the race and was switched back inside to deliver a perfect run for Stevie Donohoe and Rebecca Menzies. Tomorrow he is drawn wide in 11 and that might prove troublesome for him. I think there is a strong draw bias at the course over this distance, and its very interesting to see the last two winners of this race have come from stall one in 12 runner races.

    Therefore it really strikes me that Grey Destiny is drawn in stall one, given how interestingly he ran in the Celtic Artisan race. He was drawn in stall five and was very free in the early parts of the race, going so far as to say he refused to settle. So it was very interesting to see him staying on very stoutly from the turn from home to finish a never nearer fourth, beaten just over two lengths by Celtic Artisan.

    The handicapper has left his mark as 63, whilst Celtic Artisan has gone up to 64 (+3lbs) which would make them about evens on the bare form. Given the stalls positions and the fact that I think the race will be set up more for the closers, I think that Grey Destiny is likely to run better than that form and should reverse places with Celtic Artisan.

    Then you look at the market, and I am massively surprised to be seeing the price of 25/1 with 4 places on offer with Paddy Power/Betfair. Therefore its 1pt EW on Grey Destiny with Paddy Power at 25/1
     
    #2
    rudebwoy, Cyclonic, Ron and 2 others like this.
  3. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    28,577
    Likes Received:
    10,380
    Good luck Nass, I admire your dedication <ok>
     
    #3
  4. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2011
    Messages:
    7,972
    Likes Received:
    4,169
    Interesting thread Naas.

    My idea of the winner would be Whatwouldyouknow 8/1. 4 wins from 16 runs. 3 wins and a 2nd place from 4 runs at the course big positives. Jockey and trainer form the negatives. Price quite good albeit too skinny to play ew so 2pts win it'll be.
     
    #4
  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    Cheers gents. Blooming heck, already into 16s and shorter.
     
    #5
  6. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    7,522
    Likes Received:
    1,874
    Good luck Nass... Hope it works out...:emoticon-0148-yes:
     
    #6
  7. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    48,324
    Likes Received:
    15,490
    Certainly a difficult race Nass. But I think you have a decent bet there having watched the race to which you refer. Couldn't be confident about any to be honest so, if looking for something else, I would probably go for the lightly raced Bated Beauty. Has done absolutely nothing after backed in to fav on debut and Queally keeps the ride. By Bated Breath out of a Galileo mare, maybe a bit more experience and the step up in distance will bring about some improvement. The 8/1 doesn't look good value though given his form. Your 25/1 looks good value given the form with those at shorter odds and the times of other C&D winners not being particularly inspiring
     
    #7
  8. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    Interesting thread.

    I tend to stick to the Turf and the higher level races but occasionally have a look at what other members put up and try to see the way they approach making a selection. I must admit that I don't take enough notice of where the pace is likely to come from in a race and sometimes nothing really wants to go on.

    My pick in the 8.00 Wolverhampton would be Street Poet. He had been out of sorts on occasion this year but his last three runs have all been decent efforts, culminating in a win off 62 last time out. Last season he was beaten favourite three times in a row but ran well each time. He was favourite next time up but won on that occasion, from the same 62 mark as his latest success. Last year he went on to complete the double off a mark of 66 and this time he runs from a pound lower on 65, so he has won from a pound higher in the past. Based on that he looks well enough handicapped and this slightly shorter trip than last time may help based on previous performances. Obviously a tricky race but Street Poet should be involved.

    From Grey Destiny's point of view the worry is not winning beyond 7F in his career. In eight wins, seven have come at 7F and one at 6F. He has had some seconds, but at a mile plus he is 0/19 all time.

    Street Poet 9/2 would be my selection.

    Good luck with the thread.
     
    #8
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2019
    NassauBoard likes this.
  9. gazboy

    gazboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2011
    Messages:
    2,308
    Likes Received:
    941
    After a very time consuming review of the form on offer I will go 2pts win on the FAV <badger><badger><badger>
     
    #9
    NassauBoard likes this.
  10. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2013
    Messages:
    4,717
    Likes Received:
    2,803
    <laugh>
     
    #10

  11. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2011
    Messages:
    15,320
    Likes Received:
    3,434
    I spent an hour on the race and came to one conclusion. I've got no ****in' idea. :(
     
    #11
    Archers Road, Ron and NassauBoard like this.
  12. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658

    My personal view is that in run of the mill handicaps the pace of the race can be a fundamental factor in horses performing to their best. Today’s race I think is an interesting example of that, as 4lbs cover six horses at the top of Timeform figures.

    I think the price factors in the mile record, if this was over 7 it would be single figure prices. I’m happy enough having seen it’s run last time out to suggest that the trip isn’t as big a negative as the pure form over the trip suggest.
     
    #12
  13. Resurgam

    Resurgam Top Analyst
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2011
    Messages:
    20,813
    Likes Received:
    4,894
    My choice would be e/w Grey Destiny. Simply because that horse has made me a profit over all the times I have bet on it.
     
    #13
  14. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2011
    Messages:
    8,186
    Likes Received:
    2,859
    For what it's worth, I can't see past Celtic Artisan. I would have done 2 pts place on GD at those odds. Interesting - but not enough for me to get me wallet out!
     
    #14
  15. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2011
    Messages:
    5,708
    Likes Received:
    2,169
    I don’t want to give the old boy author a big head but what a wonderful, wonderful thread. Just what the forum needs a proper racing discussion thread about what people THINK about races and racing. Unquestionably the natural successor to ‘The Daily Thread’ (which has been a mere parody of its former brilliant self for yonks now) and so much better than that dire ‘I’ve been told…’ and ‘the owner has just texted me’ nonsense which from time to time clogs up the place.

    No firm opinions myself on the 8.00 myself (so won’t litter the old forum up with claptrap) but can’t wait for a race to be highlighted in which I do have some views. Top quality stuff.
     
    #15
  16. the don

    the don Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2011
    Messages:
    1,320
    Likes Received:
    384
    Ive had a word for one in this race funnily enough........ (just kidding! hahahahahah)
     
    #16
  17. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2011
    Messages:
    5,708
    Likes Received:
    2,169
    No, no, no, no, no. I just contacted my preferred bookie chappie (the one who goes money back as a free bet if my selection finishes runner-up to a horse owned by Her Majesty, Princess Camilla, Mr Ponsonby, the 11th richest man in Wales or the owner who is always texting members on here) and he is going 4/11 you will be in profit, 2/1 a recorded loss and 200/1 a balance of £0.00 (no profit, no loss, no pain, no gain) come the end of the test.

    I did survive Ascot but this would have been conquered had I gone home after the 2nd race. Was 2/2 at that point (how incidentally was Japan allowed to be as big as 6/4 when running against that rabble?!?) but ended up 2/6 and having to endure victories for The Creature and ‘The Head Turner’ (what a terrible nickname incidentally). By the way how can anyone celebrate the latter’s win as it was brutal beyond words and I’d have given her 9 years not 9 days.

    Ascot was its surreal self and as far detached from the reality of modern day Broken / Austerity / Lawless / Brexit (delete as appropriate) Britain as it’s ever been. In fact, in my view, ‘Peppa Pig World’ is more ‘real life’ than Royal Ascot. But then I’ve always viewed the place as a pantomime and theatre so it wasn’t really anything I didn’t expect. I was fuming though over Luca Cumani getting a seat in one of the carriages. I wouldn’t have minded missing out to the likes of Harry Hill or Fizz from ‘Coronation Street’ but Luca bally blinkin’ blimey Cumani. I was not happy…
     
    #17
  18. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    Cor blimey, with odds like that can you be my bookmaker?

    Glad you had fun in la la royal ascot land, it’s not a meeting I’d ever go to, but then, if they don’t do tweed then it’s not racing is it?
     
    #18
  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    There is a springer in the market for this race. Bated Beauty was as high as 25/1 but is right in to as low as 5/1 now. Almost everything in the race is drifting badly apart from well backed new favourite Subliminal and Arlecchinos Leap. Subliminal has halved in price from 6/1 to 3/1 and plenty are on the drift. Celtic Artisan is out to 6/1, Street Poet out to 8/1 and Grey Destiny is available at a whopping 25/1.

    That's part of the reason I am not so keen on this type of racing. It's pretty hard to imagine such a volatile market in higher grade racing. Bated Beauty is a three times raced maiden who started 100/1 and 50/1 the last twice. The first race earned her 63 from the Racing Post but next time she ran to only 47. She would not appear to be well handicapped on 65 tonight but the money has come for her. Subliminal has only ever won once and is 6 lbs higher than that mark on 64 today, yet he is as short as 5/2.

    I popped out and had a point each-way on Street Poet at 8/1. His form suggests that he is well capable of being placed here and those odds look big.

    Street Poet 8/1 1pt EW
     
    #19
  20. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    I’d say we saw a couple of more volatile markets at Royal Ascot, with the last two Frankie runners on 4 timer day. However I do take the point, liquidity in the market is surely the key to that?
     
    #20

Share This Page