A Month of "All Weather" Nass

Another really odd all weather card tomorrow at Lingfield, the last two races are 3yo+ handicaps and neither has a course winner in the field!! It makes form study really difficult. As such it is another no bet day.

 

Hope you don't mind me saying this Nass but when you did your 30day-1 bet a day trail you bet in some very tricky looking cards and were pulling your hair out when they didn't come close... Now your on to you preferred form of betting, and doing a good job of it as well, your picking and choosing when and when not to have a bet...?!?

Its your shout, your thread, but I just thought I'd pose the question...??

 

Exactly, I don’t think I can just pick out a race and analyse it, I need to be more precise with the race type and be more patient. Tomorrow for instance has a glut of races that I like to bet in, so it’s worth sitting two days out to get to those days.

 

4:20 Wolverhampton

9 due to go to post, and it looks like a race that should be run at an even gallop given that Al Daayen, Fenjal and Shrewdness all race prominently in the main. This is an interesting race given the exposed nature of a few of the runners and then you've got a couple who are far from exposed.

My Dear Friend is top rated in the race and importantly for him he has the blinkers applied for the first time. If that sparks a revival of his early 2019 form, then he could be interestingly handicapped off 76. However the problem I have with My Dear Friend is that he is looking really regressive on turf and it would need the blinkers and all weather return to make all the difference. That is possible and he could go off a big price here.

Characteristic is a lightly raced gelding, whose best run came at Kempton in April. He was left poorly placed at Chelmsford last time out and that run can be overlooked (also down 2lbs now). To me he doesn't look well handicapped off 75 and I think can be overlooked here.

Kuwait Station is another with first time blinkers, and he is a more exposed horse having had 8 runs already this season and he has yet to trouble the judge. I don't like the way he carries his head, and the blinkers would need to have a great effect to make him look more genuine! He is looking fairly handicapped now, but on the book I think he is one to take on again.

Little India is an interesting filly, who ran a very taking race last time at Haydock when going down by a length at the line. She has been a horse who has been making the running and setting races up for closers, and I fear she might be doing the same again here. I think she is fairly handicapped, but I do think she needs an uncontested lead.

Alma Linda, another Sir M Prescott horse who seems to be showing improved form through the last month. She was beaten last time by a false pace (that she set) and the step up to this trip in a field which looks likely to run the race at a faster pace should make this a really interesting race for her. I do worry that she carries her head awkwardly though, and it could be that she is a bit of a thinker.

Shrewdness is an interesting runner for the Queen, she has been beaten a decent distance in her last two runs, and it needs to be the switch to handicaps that improve her. I think she isn't massively well handicapped on her form, and I worry that she has disappointed the last twice when well found in the market. I also think she will need further than this, so would need the pace to collapse here.

Prairie Spy has been out of sort in her last four runs, but as a result she has dropped down the handicap and could well be well handicapped here. Her recent form is really off putting and I couldn't fancy her to run well here.

Fenjal looks outclassed.

Al Daayen is another filly, who has good course and distance winning form, albeit in a novice race, and I think her form is very in and out, and predominently is out of form! I think she is outclassed here from a mark of 57 (Fenjal is nearest in handicap at 70).

A mixed bunch for sure, but a couple of the colts are interesting in first time headgear. Bet to follow tomorrow.

 

Haven't had time to keep up but just have. Glad to see it's going well. Definitely the right approach (choosing which races are worth looking at and being patient) and definitely more chance of success on the AW as at least some of the dangers of betting on turf racing are eliminated. I would love to have the time to do exactly what you are doing Nass. Given the time and effort you are putting in, if I had money to spare for betting, I would happily just base my bets on this thread.

Good luck

 

£5 EW My Dear Friend at 11/1 BVic

 

Makes tapeta debut. Is that relevant?

 

Kodiac has a slightly better win percentage on polytrack but on all three surfaces he is 10% or over so it shouldn't make that much difference I'd suggest.

 

7:10 Caspian Prince @ 3/1 £10 win

This looks perfect for the old boy, he should get out from the inside stall and make all.

 

Odd run but stayed on takingly in the end. Don’t think he liked the headgear but he is clearly more suited by the artificial surfaces. Think he was fourth in the end.

 

Disappointing , Caspian Prince didn't get out the stalls well enough and then got taken on for the lead, they set it up for the closers.

7:45

Two I like here are the Godolphin Key Victory and Nicklaus of the Haggas yard. The formers run at Sandown was eyecatching and the latters Salisbury run was good. Both then were poor at Goodwood, but that can often be the case

£5 win on each at 10/1 and 13/2 respectively.

 

Good run by Nicklaus but found a Godolphin horse too good. Unfortunately it was the wrong Godolphin horse for my pocket.

So after a disappointing day, its back to +£44 for the thread

 

Lingfield - Two races that suit my preferences for poor quality and exposed handicappers over sprint distances tomorrow, with the 4:45 and then the 5:15

4:45

A 0-55 sprint handicap with three 3yos taking on much more exposed rivals. The added bonus here being that with Tarseek in the field we know that it should be run at a good gallop.

So in racecard order

Dutiful Son - It shows how bad the race is when he is top weight!! He is a fascinating horse given back in 2017 he was a good solid 70 rated handicapper, but the decline has been staggering and this season he hasn't hinted at any form. The switch from Simon Dow to Emma Owen signified the drop in form and I don't see how anyone can back him with any confidence currently.

Tarseek - He is honest and despite a 3lb rise in the weights he is probably the most solid of these. He won nicely from the front last time out, and can make a brave go of it again from the front. The worry for him is that he might get taken on for the lead this time, and he has yet to place in 5 runs at the course. I want to find something to take him on with.

Quick Recovery - she ran in the race Tarseek won at Chelmsford and has to find a length for the 3lbs swing int he weights, and on that form she must be taken seriously here. That day however I thought the race was run to suit and that she had plenty of time to pick Tarseek up, and never looked like truly landing a blow on him. Throw in the switch of jockey from young Fallon (a major positive) to a young 7lb claimer and I'd say her chances are diminished.

Classy Cailin - another filly who has solid chances, having won at Yarmouth last time out. She is up 4lbs for that win, and she ran prominently that day against what was probably the favoured rail. That was her first win in 20 runs and she hasn't got a good all weather record at all. I would be wary in thinking that she is the obvious type to follow up given the change of surface here.

Mercers - She has been badly out of form this year, but as such she has dropped to a really interesting mark, 3lbs lower than her last winning rating. This is her grade and she is one of those horses who is very in and out, so it might be that she is prepped to run a big race dropping into a 0-55. A big worry is that the yard are massively out of form, and nothing has won for them this year (33 runs).

Mystical Moon - A really modest performer, but one that has at least won races in her grade. She ran a modest race last time, but did show enough when staying on to suggest that she is likely enough to run to form. Is that form strong? No, but this is a 0-55!

Dandilion - A rogue, who hasn't won since 2017 despite having plenty of chances. She has refused to race more times in that period than looked like winning!! She has dropped to a very low mark as a result, and to be fair her last couple of runs have been 'ok' in context of this. Still one I wouldn't be wanting to back to break that losing sequence.

Such Promise - Well, have you seen a worse named horse? That said, on his penultimate run he showed enough to think he could be competitive in a 0-55 race off a lower mark (down 5lb since) and if you forgive him his run last time out over further he could be an interesting horse for the grade. The problem? He has been a front runner in those races and if he takes Tarseek on here, he will surely set it up for something coming from off the pace. The yard are in good form, and it wouldn't be a massive surprise to see him put in a better performance here.

Gold Club - They have struggled with this horse since his win on the last day of 2017, they've tried different trips with him and then two runs ago he finally showed more of his old spark albeit on turf at this course. That was a very poor race, but it did show that some of the old spark remains, and that he can be competitive off this basement mark. The yards horses aren't running too bad (a fair few are running to form i'd say) and he might be one to be more interested in here.

Meraki - A 3 year old in the field, who probably ran a careers best last time out in a seller. He has been a really tricky horse with his ability to not settle into races, so it was more encouraging the way he went about it last time, despite still not fully settling. I think he is a horse who has a modicum of ability and its whether they can harness it in a race in which he should be able to chase a good gallop. If he can't settle here then he will continue to struggle.

Invincible One - another 3 year old and another that has a few bits of form in the book to suggest this race isn't beyond him. He ran in a couple of two year old races last season that showed that he could perhaps have a future as a racehorse, but then hasn't gone on from that. This summer has been a disaster for him, stumbling in one race and not getting home over further when they stepped him up in trip. As a result though he has tumbled to a really interesting handicap mark, and he comes from a yard who are having winners. It wouldn't be a stretch to suggest that on paper he has no chance, but digging deeper I think he is probably one of the more interesting horses.

Prince Rock - Finally we have a 46 rated horse! He certainly can't be ruled out of this either, given his fairly decent all weather form at Chelmsford. He ran on really eyecatchingly in the Tarseek/Quick Recovery race and if he can replicate that form i'd have him as the most likely winner of those three. That said, he is rated this mark for a reason. He isn't any good!!

A shoddy handicap, but a few interesting horses in it. My eye is drawn towards the bottom of the page. More tomorrow when we see the market.

 

5:15 - ten to go to post for another 0-55 handicap, but in comparison to the earlier race, this seems to have more substance to it. Again we have three year olds taking on their elders. So again in racecard order -

Brogans Bay - A course and distance winner off 52 so only three pounds higher here, but she does have to put two disappointing runs behind her. She is a front runner and the form of her last run is possibly integral to reading this race, which we will see later in the preview. The key to that race was that she and Sandfrankskipsgo took each other on for the lead and set it up for horses travelling in behind. Both reappear here, and with others in here liking to take it on, we might see similar again. Again she is drawn wider than Sandfrankskipsgo so she will have to be very good from the stalls to get across and not travel widest.

Aquadabra - A filly in good form, having won at Chepstow and Wolves before a good third last time out at Salisbury. She runs from the same mark as she did at Salisbury and is hard to remove from calculations. At Chepstow I thought she got the run of the race on the stands rail before switching past the field, and I thought she was going to win further than she did. Similar can't be said of the Wolves race, when she travelled very wide early under Tom Marquand and then got to one off the rail turning in behind what seemed a relatively easy pace. Again that day she looked like she was going to hack up, but didn't find much when in the lead and finishing in a bunch at the end. She might be able to sit in behind the early pace and pick them up as they fade inside the distance, but will something finish more resolutely?

Terri Rules - I think this is an interesting filly on her run with Brogans Bay on her penultimate start. That day she had to switch around the winner when making her effort and as such found herself too far back to challenge at the line. She then followed up with a good turf run over 6 furlongs. She is one of a few hold up horses in this field and she should get a good pace to chase. One for shortlists.

Sandfrankskipsgo is another from the Brogans Bay race and having run well for a long way that day has potential of backing up that effort in this class (58 rated winner in January) off a mark of 54. I think however he will need a few to fail to get out fast for him to be able to dominate here. As such I think they are likely to go too fast up front and set it up for something else.

Awake In Asia - Third in a handicap at Wolves in February but hasn't looked at all straightforward. He is dropping in the weights as a result, but I don't think he has a progressive profile and is one to sway away from until we see more

Knockabout Queen - Another with temperament issues, given she refused to race last time out, she has won her races in sellers and has looked really regressive for this yard. I think we need to see much more from her before suggesting her time is near.

Katherine Place - She has been off for 404 days, and on the formbook she needs to find plenty. She hasn't got any form in the book and it will be a case of watching brief with her.

Flowing Clarets - Another on the downgrade having won from marks in the mid 50s and low 60s in the past. This season has been really poor, and it is hard to work out how they are going to get her back into form. That said she was really badly out of form when she won at Windsor last October, and it was only the market that suggested that she had a better chance than the formbook noted. So any money around would be interesting here.

Mysusy - Now this is one of those interesting horses, a 48 rated filly for Robert Cowell!! Her form this season isn't good, in fact it is awful, but go back to last August and she has a run at Chelmsford which suggests that off 48 she could have a chance. I still think she has a lot to find and from the wide stall she is going to find it hard to get a good position here.

Ask The Guru - A good old boy at a modest level for the Attwater yard, and showed a little more last time when forcing the pace at Brighton. The issue with him is that he often goes from the front and will help set this up for something tracking. I'd like to see him run well, but I think others are probably more interesting for the win purpose.

As you can see, quite a few front runners and one hold up horse that looks set to run a massive race!!

 

5:15 Terri Rules £15 win at 4/1

4:45 to follow when I find the special I want!

 

4:45 Gold Club £5 EW @ 20/1

 

Disappointing results but both ran with credit, annoyingly the other horse won the 5:15 and Gold Club must have traded rather short in the 4:45 before not picking up.

Back to +£19

 

Kempton tomorrow and the handicaps of interest are on the end of the card again.

Shorter previews here tonight due to the number of races that I want to touch upon.

4:00 - One interesting horse is Professor who this season doesn't have the form figures but does have excuses, last time being a prime example when winning his race on his side but being hopelessly outpaced by the others. A very classy horse on his day, but on the downgrade for years, he has shown enough in glimpses this season to suggest that tomorrow isn't a hopeless task.

4:30 - I like Lethal Lunch but a couple of these look really overpriced and the one I like is Miracle Of Medinah who is another that was very classy on his day, and has shown glimpses this season to suggest that he is becoming handicapped to win a race. Another big price really for the race.

5:05 - I do like Lady Dancealot but she doesn't win the races that she should and again I think one in here is vastly overpriced and that is Sparkalot. He has been off for ages and now returns a lesser man. His course form last year was really good and if we see a positive for him in the market I think he will run well. A bit is taken on trust if you back him early.

So those are the three races i've studied and three biggish prices. I will wait until tomorrow to refine the bets and get the odds.

Views from the sages?

 

Market drifts for all three this morning suggests that it won’t be their days. As such

4:00 Choral Music @6/1 £5 EW (4 places) has course form and well handicapped. The jolly has best form left handed.

4:30 No bet

5:00 still like Sparkalot but will wait to see if moves in market prior to race

 

2:00 Come On Girl @5/6 to place top 3

She has the best form in the race and I think she should be 4/6 to place. The Prescott horse put me off for the win bet.