A Month of "All Weather" Nass

8:35 - proper rogues gallery but I think the high draw is really important here (as we've seen in the 8:05 they come across).

Tick The Boxes is the right favourite so £10 win at 4/1

Prince of Time @ 20/1 £5 EW

 

Both got impeded in the race, Prince Of Time was very unlucky not to place at worst, and is one that got away.

So tonight

-20
+90
-20

So from +£15 to +65 for the thread.

Chelmsford tomorrow with relatively small fields. So will post on here before racing starts

 

So tonight is Chelmsford, and it isn't any secret that it is my least favourite of the All Weather courses, it just doesn't seem to be a track I can work out. As such its small stakes stuff.

5:50 - this look a match between Constanzia and Lady Red Moon, and I think Constanzia should be the favourite here. She won at the course last time out and I think this trip should eek out more improvement and I think she is a straighter horse than LRM who pulls in races and has also started slowly. £5 @ 85/40

7:30 - I couldn't resist looking at this race, with the flat eight due to go to post and it being a good 0-90 handicap over the minimum 5 furlongs. I think we are likely to see a fair pace with Zac Brown in the field and both Only Spoofing and Green Door like to press on too. Then you have Tomily who has improved for the switch to David O'Meara (and the fact I keep opposing him) and the in form Harry's Bar.

However I really like Jumira Bridge in this race. The horse shouldn't be 18/1 against this field, and if you forgive the poor run at Ascot, you can really make a strong case for him. He won at Sandown in July in impressive and eyecatching style in July, and he is only 4lbs higher than that day. He also has course form in the book with a fourth place in January off 2lbs higher. He has the very talented Fallon on board and I think the race will be run to suit, he should be able to come with a rattle at the end of the race.

£5 EW @ 18/1

 

First one beaten a neck and then the second a never nearer 4th having to come wider than ideal. Such is form! Thread at +£50

 

As you will have noticed, we skipped the Saturday card at Chelmsford. It was a muddling card of all weather horses taking on those with little experience of the surface, but it did contain a very interesting heat.... An optional claiming handicap!! The BHA don't make it easy on the followers of the sport and even less so for the rare racegoer!

"When entering a horse in an optional claiming handicap, trainers can ‘buy’ a handicap rating up to 7lb lower than its published rating but, in doing so, they make that horse available to claim for a pre-determined price which is in line with the reduced rating chosen."

Clear eh?

Anyway, rather than dwelling on the past, lets take a look at Wolverhampton tomorrow.

8:50 - A good little handicap that should be run at a good gallop.

Street Poet is the in form horse, coming off four course wins in a row, but that means that he is up to 74 in the weights and will need to put in a career best to win this. He also looks like he will face a bit of early competition for a prominent position and that should set it up for something else.

Fares Poet is the horse with a progressive angle to his form, and is a lightly raced three year old, so will get plenty of support here. My concern with him is that he is rising through the weights despite not winning a race, and has to defy a career high mark of 77 if he is to win this. He seems to be one they want to race prominently with, and that might set it up for something else.

Engrossed is likely to be well found in the market too, given she is a lightly raced horse for a trainer who seems to be having a decent season again. She is a filly against the boys, and will be suited to a better paced race. I like her and she is probably the most likely winner, and unfortunately the market seems to agree with her being 7/2

Cape Victory is another to the fore in the market, and is another that is likely to want to go forward. I think he is one to be wary of until he gets the cruelest cut, and along with the Poets he should set this race up for something else.

Mainsail Atlantic is a really interesting horse here stepping back in trip. He caught the eye on multiple occasions last season when travelling strongly before not picking up when looking a likely winner. That however was over further, and his win at Lingfield shows that he can battle when asked, so a return to shorter and with a good pace to sit behind, he should really get back to form here. His form left handed on the all weather (not included the straight track at Newcastle) reads 221, and with his pedigree he looks one to progress further on the all weather (17% win ratio on all - AW tracks - 19% at Wolverhampton).

£10 EW @ 8/1

 

you found the winner then talked yourself out of it !!!

 

Worse than that, the selection was surely the best horse in the race and got absolutely mullered because of the jockeys poor choice.

 

Back to +£30 after that annoying result where Mainsail Atlantic got put in behind horses and didn't get a chance to place because of it. Very frustrating as they had a nibble on him before the off and he ran with more left to give.

Anyway, that race taught me that I needn't put up the selection until later in the day of the race. So instead of putting the bet on tonight, the betting will be tomorrow.

So Lingfield 18:00

Come On Dave is currently the favourite here, but as a 10 year old it would seem to me to be an odd market, but he did win over course and distance last time, and he won that day with a lot of authority. That ended a long losing run, ad if its as long between drinks for him, that will be the last win of his career. The thing about this horse is that he has two ways of running, and if it isn't a going day, he is likely to be tailed off! He isn't one i'd want to be with.

Fareeq is talented for the grade but needs everything to drop right for him, his last three course runs have all been good but the last two have shown him to being a hostage to fortune with his running style. He is drawn well here, and is fairly handicapped, it will be a case of whether he gets a fast enough pace to chase and whether the gaps open for him from the inside draw. As such I am worried that they've got a claimer on him rather than Richard Kingscote, but that does mean he is carrying less weight.

Roundabout Magic is another who is often showing his best work at the finish. He has a few really interesting bits of form this season and would be suited if they went really fast in the early stages.

Olaudah is a horse who won last time out, but his best form has all been at 6 furlongs, so it might be that he finds this trip too sharp. He however does like the all weather and is relatively unexposed compared to some of these.

Then the really intriguing one is Requited, who on his juvenile form would pick this field up and wipe the floor with them, but that does look a long time ago given his poor runs as a gelded three year old. The yard have been poor in general this year though, and perhaps it is just a case of waiting to catch him when he runs in an awful race, and this is one of those races. His best form is on the all weather (won at Southwell and good run at Wolves) so a switch to this surface could help. He is really eyecatching on the old form, but can we trust stable and horse to return to form?

A few questions, and tomorrow I will post the bet/s for the race.

I also like one in the good mile handicap later on the card.

 

morrison has had three runners up out of his last four runners , so not wildly out of form , low grade racing mate , always surprising !!

 

I have a tendency to do that.

 

That has been the yards problem this year 40 places and only 15 wins from 179 runners.

 

Nass, where would I find sectionals for all weather racing?

 

Attheraces is the best site for pure numbers

 

£12 win Roundabout Magic @ 5/1
£8 win Required @ 7/1

 

Requited even!!

 

1st and 3rd. A good result!!!

 

Delicate Kiss to beat Glorious Gem in a match bet in the 7:00 10 at 9/10

 

well done mate , morrison off the cold list as well

 

So before today the thread was at +£30

£20 invested in the first - returned £64
£10 in the second - returned £10 (non runner)

So profit of £44 for the day and +74 overall!

 

Not the sort of card I like tonight at Kempton, so its a no play day. Lots of juveniles and novice races and not a lot of exposed handicappers!