A Month of "All Weather" Nass

Hi all,

Please come and join me on my ride through the deep dark world of "all weather" racing (from here on in called AW) and whilst we know its an oxymoron (as we will see with snow/ice in the not too distant future), it does give us a few interesting punting angles.

So to start the thread, lets take a little whirl around the AW courses, starting with Newcastle who hold tomorrows meeting.

Newcastle - Tapeta Surface - Left handed - straight course of up to a mile. The turns I would class as sweeping. Key to Newcastle is that it has the straight course, and you often get good horses turning up on the track in novice races in the autumn.

Wolverhampton - Tapeta Surface - Left handed - oval of around a mile in distance. Fairly sharp turns.

Chelmsford (City) - Tapeta Surface - Left handed - oval with sweeping turns of around a mile in circumference.

Lingfield - Polytrack - Left handed - Sharp in nature as its within the turf course. Often see horses coming wide off the last turn.

Kempton - Polytrack - Right handed - Two oval loops, impacts on length of finishing straight and whether you get a cut away. five furlong races are run on inner loop and often favour horses up with the pace or ones that can attack off the bend. Six furlongs start is near the turn, so draw can be important here

Southwell - Fibresand - left handed - mile and a quarter circuit.

So as you can see, the AW is actually three different surfaces, with racing going both directions and different course characteristics, it is important to note this, and it is important to know which horses prefer which surface/course.

Tomorrows preview to come later.

The thread will move away from a staking plan, and instead go to cold hard ££. This is because there will be some back to lay selections and the like...

 

Lets hope your gonna be the 'King of the Sand' at the end of it Nass...

 

Just from the course settings, I'm with Wolverhampton, Chelmsford and Kempton. I like something up on the pace on tight courses.

I think you'll probably fare better this time Nass. Good luck.

 

Thanks gents.

Tomorrow brings to the fore one of the most interesting things i've seen this year, in that the tapeta surface seems to react very differently to summer temperatures and from a bit of reading around the subject (academia even - cough - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20525055) it seems to be down to the melting of wax within synthetic surfaces that causes a slowdown of races on the surface during warm weather.

Take the sprint trip that starts the card tomorrow, the following are ATR race reports for winners over this trip in June - and the sectionals

1 - tracked leader, going well 2f out, ridden to challenge inside final furlong, ran on to lead towards finish

14.13
10.42
11.07
11.63
12.73
59.99s

2 - tracked leaders, shaken up and headway over 1f out, ran on to lead inside final 100 yards, edged left, ridden out towards finish

13.65
10.48
10.85
11.11
12.52
58.60s

3 - made all, ridden over 1f out, driven clear final 110 yards, ran on, readily

13.96
10.85
10.93
11.13
12.25
59.11s

4 - prominent, ridden 2f out, ran on final 100 yards, led close home

14.68
11.42
11.19
11.49
12.31
61.09s

I've highlighted all furlong sectionals that are under 11.39 which is the average furlong time (excluding start) of all four races.

So what is interesting about this? Firstly, Newcastle has long been seen as advantaging horses that come from behind, yet all of these races were won by horses who didn't sit out the back. Horses who are able to break and maintain a position seem to be benefitting. It is also really noticeable that the race pace doesn't need to be slow for horses to make all, the 3rd race was won by the front runner, who set three "bold" sectionals during the race and finished in the fastest final furlong time of all four races. Only 0.51s outside the time of the class two handicap that is second in the list (say three lengths).

Then you compare that the winner of race 3 carried 9'11 compared to the winner of the class 2 race which carried 8'9 and it reads very well for that horse.

So on times that horse finished 0.51s away carrying over a stone more!!

Now part of this is that in the class 2 race they went very fast in the second furlong and the last furlong time suffered as a result, but in any which way you play it, I think that is a pretty impressive time and effort by the winner of the 3rd race in the list.

Why am I prattling on about this?

 

The winner of that race runs tomorrow and is the selection in the first. Dandy’s Beano is the horse and I’ve had 20 quid on at 13/8.

She should be able to dictate the race from the front and if Kevin Stott sets the same fractions I don’t see anything beating her.

 

Looking good Nass. I'm sure you will have more success with this thread

 

1:40 Newcastle

So to look at the race in a bit more depth. Dandy's Beano is up 7lbs for that course and distance success, and whilst she disappointed under a penalty at Chelmsford, that can be easily overlooked, given she had to race wide and didn't get an easy lead. She has course form last year off a mark of 76, so the current mark looks feasible, and I think she is more positively viewed on the way the race is likely to be run.

Oriental Lilly is a course regular, and one with a very good record here. She won off this mark at the course in April, and on the back of that you would say that she is very well handicapped. My problem with her tomorrow is that in a very small field, I think she is vulnerable to the fortunes of how the race will pan out. She is a very solid hold up horse, but will a four runner field suit her?

Everkyllachy has had a good season already, but because of that her form has tailed off as she's gone up through the weights. She is another who races off the pace, and will need the fourth horse in the race to take on Dandy's Beano if she is going to get the race run to suit.

Marietta Robusti is the fourth horse, and is probably the wildcard here, given her back form with Mick Channon she wouldn't be ruled out, but her form for this yard has been awful and it will need her to be back to near her best to figure here.

All in all, I think odds against is very fair for Dandy's Beano and if she doesn't get pestered by MR in the first few furlongs, I expect her to be trading long odds on by halfway.

 

I do have additional selections later in the card, but I want to see how the second race is run before putting anything else up. As such, I will be around tomorrow to add to the thread.

 

Easy peasy

 

That’ll do. Good fractions from the front and had it won with a furlong to run.

So after one bet +£32.50

Should we stop now?!

 

That second race at Newcastle was very interesting, and I think it shows that horses can come from off the pace today. The fact that first Lyricist Voice and then Morisco came from well behind to hit the front, really pays an interesting nod to the next race at Newcastle.

2:45 - The Beeswing is a really interesting race, and one that has a potentially well handicapped horse in it, Honest Albert is that horse and he has been really well found in the market. However, I am worried that he might find a battle in this race, and that might not suit a lightly raced horse who isn't battle hardened.

However, I don't want to take him on for the win, he could be half a stone or so well in!!

So instead, I am taking last years winner Breanski to finish in the places (3) at 11/10 (betfair). He is a hold up horse who likes the course and distance, and given how well he won this race last year (off 81) the mark of 84 looks pretty fair on the back of being awarded the race at Ascot last time out.

I am pretty surprised I could get odds against here.

£10 @ 11/10

 

Got that very wrong, didn't get involved from the rear. so +22.5

 

3:55 is a fascinating heat, with Gas Monkey looking to overcome the weight hike from the handicapper. He has won three in a row, and as such has gone up from 63 to 79, but is that enough to stop him here?

Well... I don't think he is going to get a perfect pace to chase here, he has come from midfield and pounced on a decent pace on his last runs, today he has a weak pace to chase and needs to overcome that as well as the hike in weight. I am looking for a horse who can sit close to an early pace and is fairly handicapped.

Teodora De Vega is a filly who has that sort of profile, being up 3lbs for her Epsom win last time out. However she is far too short here at 7/4 given that she is against the males.

So then I come to Furzig who is fairly handicapped in my opinion and he is very lightly raced. At 9/2 he is the selection

£10 win @ 9/2 BOG

 

Get in. Megan Nicholls gave that a beautiful ride. On first viewing they went a fraction to quick up front and set it up for the closers

So £45 profit from the race and a total profit on the day of £67.5

 

Final bet of the day goes in the 4:30 and this is a "special" bet with Betfair = Final (top 3 finish) @ 7/4 £10

So the 4:30 is a really interesting race, you've got another short price favourite who is very unexposed but not particularly battle hardened and a field of 7 runners who have plenty of interesting form between them.

Derevo is the favourite, and quite rightly so, but I couldn't have him at odds on. He won nicely at Pontefract last time out, but that form isn't working out, and up 8lbs makes him no gimme here.

Finneston Farm should help take them along, and that should really suit the selection Final. FF has won from this mark in the past, and if they let him loose on the front then he is dangerous. However Derevo is likely to sit prominently and Lexington Empire should also kick for home early enough.

So that should set up an even pace (at worst) for Final. Final is very well handicapped and showed a bit more of his old self last time out when staying on in the final furlong. He won here off 87 in the past and is now on 82!!

I think the odds are fair enough for him to beat four home.

 

Not sure what Johnston can do with Final, that was a rather ungenuine attempt again.

So the end of the first day of this thread

2 wins from 4 bets

+£57.5

Back again in August!

 

I apologise in advance for this one (Oddy especially) and hopefully this is of some interest to all.

I've taken the sectionals for the Wolverhampton meeting last week, and compared with two dates in March. These are for the races over 5 to 7 furlongs, and hopefully it shows the difference between racing in the winter compared to what we've seen recently.

So in March we've got horses quickening at different parts of the race. Lion Hearted quickened in the 3rd furlong of the race, whilst Second Collection was fastest in furlongs 2 & 4. Krazy Paving fastest in the second furlong and gradually slowing through the furlongs.

However, Camachess for instance quickened during the fifth furlong and Top Breeze in the fourth furlong. Pass the Vino set three quick final furlongs off a slow pace, whilst Grey Destiny quickened up smartly in the sixth furlong.

This shows that the horses were coming to win their races from different positions in the race and were setting their fractions as suits.

Now if we take the July results and you see a very different pattern. Almost all of the horses who won at Wolverhampton on the 23rd set their fastest furlong in the second furlong of the race (X Force was very slightly faster in the 4th furlong and Fantastic Flyer set same fraction in 2nd and 3rd furlong.

This showed that horses with a very set running style were winning races (in this case - making all) and horses weren't getting into the race from off the pace.

So what does this mean? Well, it gives an interesting starting point for viewing Friday's fields... lets wait until Wednesday for final decs!!!

 

It is the moment you've all been waiting for, no its not another massively delayed race at Goodwood, its the return of the AW thread.

Tomorrow we get a wonderful card from Wolverhampton -

1:30 - This race doesn't look to have that many horses who want to take them along, and as such I have had £5 EW on Jill Rose @ 12/1 (PaddyPower). Jill Rose races prominently, and importantly she looks very fairly treated of a mark of 56. She has raced at Wolves twice this season in handicap company and finished less than 2 lengths behind the winner on both occasions. On those runs she was rated 64 and 62! Therefore it wouldn't be any surprise to see her run another good race here from a mark in teh 50s for the first time.

My concern with her is that she hasn't looked the most resolute in the final furlong on both of those attempts, but I am willing to give her a chance here from this new mark and in a field in which she is drawn low and shouldn't get taken off her feet early.

3:10 - Fantastic Flyer £10 win @ 9/4 - I am really surprised by the odds on this one, given she is from a yard in great form and the run last time out reads really well for this race. She is well drawn and again, I don't think we have too much pace early to take her on. I am very happy to back her at the odds, and I am only tempering stakes because I can't watch the racing tomorrow and would be worried if pace bias changed in races.


A gentle day for betting tomorrow, but an interesting little card, in which we could see a useful horse in one of the last two novice races.