The closer we get to the big one the more convinced I've become that Hurricane Fly laughs at this lot in the Champion Hurdle. I suspect he'll barely come off the bridle, different class that he is. This horse is a machine and he'll fully right the wrongs of last year. The reception he'll get coming back in will show what Cheltenham's all about. Legend. Get on!
Starting to lean on him now i've given the race more of a look, Rupert will have him alot handier this year i'd imagine and i feel come Tuesday i may be placing a bet on him.
I think you may be right. It could be the easiest of Champion hurdle victories for some time as I cannot find anything to beat him.
Beefo: Looks very much like you will be right, certainly if Zarkandar hits that awful flat spot at the top of the hill like last year. Erm, what exactly was wrong with the Fly last year? Did he scope bad after the race or something?
There's bound to be someone going 9/4 tomorrow morning, with the way the bookies fight for your custom, and that could look very generous come about 3.24 pm. But I remain unconvinced that he's value to defy the stats and regain his crown. I've no strong opinion on the race, so I'll just sit on my ante-post 20/1 Countrywide Flame in the hope he makes the frame.
The soft going and single figure field are both surely playing to his strengths more than any of the others?
Swanny, i thought that myself, but to be honest all of the Nicholls yard were suffering with a cough last year, and i think he did damn well to finish like he did... Your right though Hurricane Fly could easily mop this up, but i do think Zarkandar is going to trouble the winner this year, even if indeed he dosnt win it... Though i would say that as im backing Zarkandar anyway...
Red: Sorry for late reply. I had completely forgotten about the cough in Nicholls yard. Have backed Zarkandar too, so here's to some good luck!
Speaking of the cough and what not old Dodging Bullets ran 4th in the Triumph when the yard had the cough. Interesting to note.
Zarkandar will be giving the Fly plenty to think about !!Only one horse has regained the Champion Hurdle in the history of the race and that was Comedy of Errors.Rock on Ruby has won only 1 in 5 races in single figure fields yet has won 6 from 9 in double figure fields - not for me.. The ground will have helped to negate the sharpness of the old course which may not be to Zarkandars advantage.....
What do we read into the fact that Rock On Ruby is wearing blinkers for the first time...? Is this a desperate thing done by the training team to try and eek out as much from him because they think he is vunerable. Or, is it a positive that he dos wear the blinkers for a first time...? Dos this mean they might put him at the front of the race and just try and let him concentrate on his efforts rather than involved with the others... We are all asking where the pace is coming from, and i agree im not sure myself, but i wouldn't think Rock On Ruby would take the running up would he...? Be good to hear any thoughts on it...
If you looked at the form this year visually you would say Hurricane Fly would laugh at this lot. However, the fact that Thousand Stars has become a one-paced pacemaker in testing ground means that Hurricane Fly has beat nothing of note. Unaccompanied is not particularly worthy opposition, and the late Go Native was getting very close before his tumble. Since then Hurricane has been shortened in the betting for nothing other than canters against below par opposition. I think the jusry is still out. He will never right last seasons wrongs because he was exposed last season off a true pace. However, everything that could be in his favour IS in his favour this year. There are absolutely no excuses this time around. That said though, you will see 3 or 4 of them on the speed tomorrow and I think they could end up blunting each other at the home turn and I see something coming from off the pace to steal this. Also, I think if Hurricane keeps tabs on RoR and Zarkandar, he might be asking for trouble by battling with the latter, because he is a tough SOB when he eyeballs you. If Ruby is bold enough to hold Hurricane up, I think he has a great chance of winning. However with last years race difficult to erase from memory, and with this years runs to go by, it looks like he will be close to the speed, and I think it is a terrible idea to have him on the pace. We will see.
We keep hearing that the Fly has beaten nothing this season, but Grandouet has had 1 race and was beaten, RoR was beaten by Zarkandar and was looking well held by Darlan, Binocular had a trot round the park behind HF and really, only Zarkandar would recommend himself on this season's form. However, I can't be having Prospect Wells as any sort of yardstick (no matter how much weight you give him), he was geting weight and had a fitness advantage in the International and his Elite Hurdle form is nothing to write home about. The form of the top protagonists leaves alot to be desired because 1) they mostly avoid each other 2) there is no "superstar" amongst them (unfortunately there was possibly one but he lost his life on town moor).
Unless he was actually suffering from problems in the lead up to race in which case you can forgive him that one run or, alternatively, you take the view that last year's race was his true form. Looking at his proximity to horses like Binocular, marmalised twice by the Fly, I find the second argument hard to buy into. Marry in the fact the Fly kept missing races last year and made a very belated reappearance last year suggests all was not rosy in the Fly camp and even, say, being just 5% below his best at Cheltenham last year was clearly not enough to win a Championship race. To be fair I think the horse could win this years renewal by a dozen lengths and still not please some people, and that's fair enough everyone is entitled to their opinions, but let's see what happens today shall we!
He will get turned over, I'm sure of that, he wont fully stay a truly run race, like last year. His rivals are t going to be stupid enough to go steady, when they know his achillies heel. Picking which one will turn him over is difficult, but I'm going for Grandouet. I know the ground isn't ideal for him, but he got very close to Zarkander giving him 4 pounds on worse ground, so I still think he can win, despite the ground
