8th July Daily Thread

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The Chosen One

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Newmarket is not one of my most succesful courses, so my first two selections winning today came as a surprise and I thought i may be able to go through the card , normal service was resumed with no further winners for the day although there were a couple of close run affairs.

On to tommorows card which for a Friday are not bad at all with three decent cards on the flat at Newmarket, York and Ascot during the day and four nice cards at Chester, Chepstow, Newbury and Cork in the evening making it a gamblers nightmare.

The first race at Newmarket the 1.20 is a Class 2 Fillies Handicap over 7f and is an attractive betting proposition, with a favourite of mine SONNING ROSE running off a nice mark and once again back in grade to Class 2, where she has ran twice, her first race in this company can be forgotten as she was in the grip of the handicapper, however, her most recent over 7f saw her running on in good ground at EPSOM and at odds of 22/1 she could go close but will have her work cut out from stall 13 but is still an attractive EW betting proposition.

The 1.50 Newmarket is a 6f Handicap with no less than 20 Runners declared tonight, which makes it an attractive EW betting proposition with Bookies paying out on 4 Places. With such a big field and based on todays spring winners a middle draw would appear to be an adavantage, there are a couple that take my eye and run of a decent mark. However my selection is NEW PLANET 16/1 who has a very useful 5lb claimer on board which brings him down to a very nice mark, his bets form to dat e was when running off a mark of 106 in Class 1 Group 2 Company when beaten by the useful Richard Hannon Colt ZEBEDEE and the Henry Candy trained DINKUM DIAMOND when keeping on over 5f and only beaten a length on Good ground.

In the 3.00 Newmarket interestingly David Simcock has two runners, im going to plump for the consistent FIRST CITY 25/1 who had stablemate IM A DREAMER well beaten and back in 5th in the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot when finishing well when beaten 2 1/2l into 3rd on Good ground and has some decent form in Group Company and could go close here again tomorrow.

In the final race at Newmarket, interestingly BRONZE PRINCE 16/1 stays at 8f takes a drop back to Class 3 and chooses this race ahead of the 7f Bunbury Cup on Saturday and with 4 places available again is a nice EW bet.
 
Newmarket

1.20- TUSCANIA 5/1- Made a nice impression on debut and was then seemingly on the wrong side when a decent 5th behind ZOOWRAA in a listed event on very soft ground. Ryan Moore didn't get overly serious with her when her chance had gone and guided her on with hands. Improvement should be possible.

1.50- FORJATT 10/1- Varian team still flying and this horse has had no luck in running this season. Tends to really stay on late and has ran out of room in two starts so far this season. Dettori on this time and hopefully he can find the gaps at the right time. Certainly has ability.

2.25- GAMILATI (NAP) 18/1 ew- Really nice form line here. I felt his first maiden was very strong in terms of the three who pulled clear and that is how I selected SAMITAR (16/1) at Royal Ascot. Gamilati was ahead of him that day and an unlucky loser, and then was miles and miles clear of the rest of the field before being chinned on the line by his stablemate who ran a blinder

The fact remains that Gamilati is very much a an above average horse and I am convinced it will excel in a high quality race like this. If it runs in a straight line under pressure it could cause an upset. But I feel it can get close to Shumoos.

3.00- MEMORY 8/1 (Subject to ground)- If we get the good to firm/good in places as ATR suggests at the moment, then Memory will be the selection and still has the class to win a big event like this. Had no chance to excel on soft ground at Ascot but at least that will have brought her on.

3.35- MENELIK 16/1 ew (Projected) String of decent entries suggests this one might be ready to go immediately which can be key in these races. Will be better horses out of the race than this in time, but a bold show looks likely I feel.

4.10- EAGLES PEAK 6/1 (Projected)- Market looks likely to speak in favour of Thimaar but this is beautifully bred and I do feel Stoute's horses are turning the corner. Good time to follow his newcomers.
 
I fancy a few tomorrow

Newmarket
1.20 Hezmah, e/w, 8/1
2.25 Russelliana, 6/1
3.00 Joviality, e/w, 12/1
4.10 Strategic Bid, e/w (depending on price)

Ascot
2.15 Poole Harbour

York
2.35 Ladies are Forever, e/w, 9/1

Chester
8.15 Usmeyet


Good luck all
 
Would also like to throw SUNWISE 11/1 (2.50 Ascot) out there. A very solid effort at Ascot last time in a hot race, 9 lengths behind Veiled. Really ought to get in the mix today, dropped 2lb in handicap and a 3lb claim of John Fahy. Down in grade also.

Suffice to say it looks a very nice e/w price.
 
I'm with Wayward Lad on the chances of New Planet. He ran a great race last time and should go close in a very competitive race.Currently 22/1 on Betfair and 4/1 a place

In the Falmouth Stakes, French mare Sahpresa has the class and form to win this- and she likes Newmarket. For a large place bet, 7/10 on Betfair looks outstanding.

In the Cherry Hinton, Shumoos really looked something to bet on at Ascot- after disposing of Friedrich Engels so impressively.
However, she just got nabbed by Best Terms, but no doubt the shock of the race was how 100/1 shot Caledonia Lady ran! She finished with real gusto and was only a head behind at the line.
Today, Betfair currently offer 14/1 and 2.9/1 a place. Seems real value to me.
 
Today we have a plethora of juvenile races

Ascot 2.15 - A maiden that looks to revolve around Poole Harbour, who is an odds on chance against a field of interesting debutants. It is a shame that we only have seven runners because I would strongly fancy the Hills newcomer as an EW bet if the field allowed 3 places on the place market. I won't be backing anything in the race, but I would not be surprised to see the jolly turned over.

Ascot 3.25 - Red Seventy - Another odds on jolly and another one that I think is vastly underpriced, this time it is Clive Cox's filly Poetic Dancer who beat the disappointing Esentepe in a maiden that I think many are overrating. I personally think the race could be between Bellechance and Red Seventy, the former won a Newcastle maiden on debut in a willing style and should build on that effort. Red Seventy is the selection here though, he won a fair maiden at Salisbury on soft ground and I think he is open to more improvement here. He was green that day and improved as the race went on, and if he develops from that race I think he can win what looks a weak novice race here. 1pt 2/1 BOG

Chepstow 7.00 - Ballyea - Another small field novice race and another that is likely to have a short priced favourite, this time it is Quite A Thing of the Prescott yard. She won a Lingfield maiden in great style on debut before faltering in novice company last time out, and I think she could be vulnerable to the Hannon trained Ballyea. Ballyea won her second start in gutsy style and she is a filly that I think is tough and genuine, both of which are desirable qualities. 1pt win 9/4

Chester 7.45 - A very tricky conditions race at Chester, the key thing is that Vocational is drawn wide and that makes the price of 6/5 look very short. She is a talented filly who should be better than this grade, however the draw leaves her with a problem, she needs to get out very fast and cross over to the rail if she is going to win. Luv U Forever is a front runner and is drawn low, this along with her good form from Royal Ascot makes her of interest against the jolly and she should not be as big as 7/2. I am really worried that they may go to quickly in the early stages so I am not going to back anything in the race.

Chester 8.50 - Pitt Rivers - This nicely drawn gelding makes plenty of appeal to me here, he has good form behind Airborne Again and I think this is the sort of race that should be perfect for him. He is priced up at 9/2 which also looks fair. 1pt win 9/2 BOG

Newbury 5.50 - Tricky maiden which seems to revolve around Savannah Days and her form with Dare To Dream. I think faster ground would help the latter whilst I do think Savannah Days is open to a good deal of improvement. I am worried that a lurker might be in this race and I will be just watching for the future.

Newbury 6.20 - Second division of the maiden and as tricky as the first if you think Self Centred is one to take on. I would not be surprised to see the horse beaten here as some of these are nicely bred and come from big yards. Not a betting race for me.

Newmarket 2.25 - Shumoos - Cherry Hinton which seems to revolve around the lovely filly Shumoos who I think is the real deal and could easily prove to be too good for this field. She meets some very good sorts here, including Miss Work Of Art and My Propeller, and the race could easily prove to be the strongest fillies race of the season so far. I am backing Shumoos with the expectation that she will improve again for her Royal Ascot run and I do think she is overpriced. 2pt win 7/2 BOG

Newmarket 3.35 - If a race was set up to produce a star then this is it, one for the vcr and sky+!! No bet but it is fascinating to see the buzz around Net Whizz of the Cumani yard.

York 2.05 - Rock Supreme was very taking on debut and could easily be good enough to win this, however we have interesting runners from Godolphin and Fahey. Skysurfer of Godolphin is very taking on pedigree and could easily be a cut above maiden company. No bet race.
 
Morning, all. Hope everyone well. Like 2, both running at Newmarket today. Pens at the ready, regular readers, they are:

Shumoos (2.25 Newmarket) - this one could not have been more impressive on debut as she trounced a field up at Haydock Park by some 5 lengths (yesterday's winner Fredrick Engels amongst those easily dispatched). This was followed by a game effort in the 'Queen Mary' when failing by just a short head. Has to date looked to have the potential to go on to become a real star and I think that promise will be confirmed here with a Group 2 win in the Cherry Hinton Stakes (what a lovely name for a race for fillies, by the way).

Thimaar (4.10 Newmarket) - has run 2 very sound races in defeat thus far in his career. A debut 2nd at Newbury, last October, was followed by a promising 3rd on his seasonal bow. The front pair in that latter heat have gone onto uphold the form as the winner has since been Listed placed and the 2nd won a £30k handicap off 95. Thimaar really should shed his maiden tag here today before going onto much better things.

Good luck, people.
 
One main bet for me today as it looks like another day of competitive racing...

4:10 Newmarket - Eagles Peak..(NAP) - See seperate thread for details.

3:00 - Saphresa can run very well also.
 
Mikeal Barzaklona is on board 2 debutants for Al Zarooni today and i'm going to back them both. Police Force 3-35 and Line of Sight 4-10. He's also got an interesting ride for Barry Hills in the 4-10 Thimaar. I'm backing them as singles but if they all win I'll tell you I did a patent and will infalte the odds that i took.


Good lcuk everyone.
 
Chippy minton said:
Mikeal Barzaklona is on board 2 debutants for Al Zarooni today and i'm going to back them both. Police Force 3-35 and Line of Sight 4-10. He's also got an interesting ride for Barry Hills in the 4-10 Thimaar. I'm backing them as singles but if they all win I'll tell you I did a patent and will infalte the odds that i took.


Good lcuk everyone.
Click to expand...

What a ****ing spastic - meant to say Whistle on By in the 5-20 at Newmarket and not Thimaar which is in the same race as one of my other selections. Durr.
 
Nass (if you are around), just skimmed through yesterday's daily thread and saw your remark about Bapak Chinta and the Nunthorpe. It was in the paper ('Guardian' I think) earlier in the week that he will indeed go for the York race after a crack at the 'Prix Robert Papin', across the Channel, later this month.

But being a 2YO won't he have about 7 stone 12 pounds to carry in the Nunthorpe??? Consequently, it raises the question of who the jockey will be. I wonder if Mr Ryan will put his daughter up as very, very few decent, or indeed half-decent, jocks can do that sort of weight these days??? Old boy Makin certainly won't be able to do the weight.
 
Barney, as a colt he will carry 8 stone 1 and I would guess that they would ask SDS to ride him (he has done sub 8 stone in the past season). Surely they would go for him ahead of Amy (8stone is her lowest) but perhaps the other one who could do it is Hanagan (8 stone).

I would guess at SDS myself.
 
Had forgotten about SDS but yes he’s probably the most likely. The other ‘possible’ would be Franny Norton who regularly gets rides from Ryan. Let’s hope that he keeps the ride ‘in house’ though.

Off such an impost, and in receipt of so much weight, I would expect a few 2YO challengers this term as there looks to be no outstanding 5 furlong horse around at the moment in the older ranks.
 
As the excitement boils over the excellent anticipated run of Group Therapy tomorrow I am finding it difficult to concentrate :emoticon-0116-evilg

Nass: You like your 2yo, take a peek at the run of my selection in the 205 York on his debut! Green is not the word and as we all know Brian Smart's horses improve very well for their debuts! PTOLEMAIC could improve bundles and hopefully will break well today.

I have been told the Al Zarooni newcomer SURFER is something special though which dampens enthusiasm and forces a RFC.

Tonight at Newbury IF Mikael Magnusson allows STAND TO REASON to take part in the 725 he will go very well. The first 2 may not have beaten much LTO but they finished clear of their field.

The best bet of the day however must be SAPHRESA 300 Newm, this lady is a lovely mare who goes well on most grounds and should beat her fellow French raider.

Have fun all and good luck :emoticon-0103-cool:
 
Morning all


GDC you not a little bit worried about the pace of the race for Group Therapy ??

Hamish and Amour Propre will set off very fast I would imagine - Amour has a kick as well and for me is the best horse in the race if he returns to anything near his best. Interesting race to start the card tmz for sure
 
Gary, I agree that it should come on for its debut but I do worry that Surfer could be special and I also think Ptolemaic has about 20lbs of improvement to match the Dodds horse (Eddie Stobart's CEO horse) and also about 15lbs with the Ryan horse. Then add in the Fahey horse and also the Barron horse and it could be an above average maiden.
 
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