The day of reckoning for Maarek tomorrow but I just know he's going to win. The realist in me is saying he's going to need everything to drop right for him and get a charmed passage through the field but every essence in my body is saying that its going to be his day. The ground is right, he's drawn well in stall 7 and it should be run at a frantic pace that he loves. He's made a seamless transition since joining Barry Lalor and he was a very impressive winner at Newbury last time despite being under pressure from a long way. Declan McDonogh rides again after giving him a peach of a ride at Newbury and I think 7s is a great price. For those wishing to bet with their heads, he's got an excellent each way chance but I firmly believe he's going to land the Prix De L'Abbaye to gain a richly deserved first Group 1.
Good luck ROTO. Problem I see with Maarek at group one level is that he's not top class so it's always relying on the ground to pull the best sprinters back to him. For that reason alone I would rather watch the race than bet in it.
I'm keen to watch Barley Mow. Took 6/1 earlier which I thought was a fair but not outstanding price. I'd like Secret Gesture to steal a group one win but can't say whether she will or not. Ruler of the World carries a few each way pounds. Great draw. Three years old. Derby winner. Won't mind conditions. Terrific and unlucky prep run. I took evens about Moonlight Cloud today. Wouldn't bother at odds on.
Meanwhile there is some proper racing at Uttoxeter, Huntingdon and Kelso. Looking forward to see Rally and Dakar Run perform for new yards tomorrow and really interested to see if CAP ELORN can chalk up his four timer, how much has he gone up since he won for us a couple of months ago? My money however is on the Uttoxeter 5.05 and its in the form of ULLSWATER @ 6-1. Upped a grade last time on the back of his win and performed really well finishing second. Off the same mark tomorrow but down in class an I think this topweight is different class to these. The favourite will be sporting more headgear than a Sikh wedding singer and the next best Royal Trooper is one of the weakest finishers in training. ULLSWATER is spanking good value.
with that in mind, a lucky 15 for me, Talkin Thomas 200 K Bears Affair 3 35 Utt Mrs Peachey 4 25 Hunt Intello Arc good luck
ORFEVRE, ROTW, KIZUNA- comb/Tricast ROTW- WIN MAAREK WIN (ALSO THESE TWO IN A SMALL DOUBLE) MOONLIGHT CLOUD & TASADAY DOUBLE MY BETS FOR TOMORROW Good Luck to all
Moonlight cloud could win tomorrow running backwards. Far too classy for that lot and I think 4/5 is a good price to be honest. Also going to be backing Tac De Boistron who was extremely impressive last time and Treve in the arc. Think she is potentially a superstar. Draw far from ideal but I'm not particularly swayed by anything else in the race
Leading light has improved with every run this season and is very versatile on ground and distance. If this turns into a stamina sapping test u think he stands an great chance and will be picking up u each way cash. Reverse forecast also wit intello, if he stays the trip has to be a huge danger with both drawn reasonably.
12:45 Longchamp - Catcall (Of course ROTO is quite right about Maarek, who looks to have a hell of a chance with all the ticks in the right boxes. I am having a very chancey e/w on a French-trained one. Dodgy because he invariably traps badly but seems to recover quickly. If he actually gets away reasonably well, then he's in with a squeak. Certainly should handle the ground). GL all today! Now off to the Bierfest for the final day....
As I touched on earlier in the week, Ruler Of The World might come into this underrated. Bar his run on firm ground at the Curragh, he would be unlucky to not be unbeaten and almost collared Kizuna despite a nightmare passage. The bit of juice in the ground should suit his action, although if it gets very soft we go into the unknown. He has a turn of foot and he definitely stays the trip well. If Ryan Moore can get him into a good position and rhythm, maybe he can surprise a few. I took 15.5 in the week prior to the draw and the draw went fine. Still need a lot of luck in an Arc though so we will see. Up against some fine animals, but ones that do have chinks in their armour. Only other horse I would be interested in is 2.30 Prix L'OperaSarkiyla 10/1 e.w. Allowed Romantica first run in the Prix Jean Romenet before staying on nicely for 2nd. The filly has a history of being outpaced before coming home well, and I wonder if todays conditions might end up suiting her when it gets a bit tough in the final furlong. Maybe today is her day to get her head in front this season.
Good morning Toppy. I am looking at the Prix Niel as the key trial here and keep on asking myself whether ROTW can reverse form with Kizuna? I read at the time that Kizuna wasn't fully wound up for the race and was expected to come on for the run. On the other hand, ROTW had a troubled passage and still got to within a nose of him. I really can't separate the 2 of them so might actually end up dutching them. I fear Treve but feel the draw scuppered her chances. Orfevre looked pure class in the Foy but didn't really beat that much and there is no value left in his price.
Morning all, Just two I like today which are ENDEAVOR in the first at Kelso. Likes this course as he has won his last 3 here and at 11/2 I will do e/w but really think he will win this. In the 4.45 Kelso I think SENDIYM will follow up Tuesdays easy win as he is unpenalised. Good luck all today.
Nothing will have been wound up for their prep runs Oddy. I read Kizuna was 85%. Quite possible the rest were at that level.
Treve and Orfevre have gears and class that the rest of the field dont have, if both get runs they will fight it out and Orfevre will need to do something remarkable to give the filly 11 pounds.
Gutted today. Absolutely gorgeous, warm and sunny, day; Orfevre and Moonlight Cloud running on the same day; and can't bloody make it.
Tentative tips at Longchamp 12.45 Maarek - needs luck in running if he misses the break but will relish cut underfoot. Saver on Dutch Masterpiece (I'd back Sole Power but the soft going won't be to his liking). 1.20 Royalmania. Veda is course and distance winner, connections won this race with Zarkava in 2007 so got to be on the shortlist. 2.30 Silasol - won Prix Saint Alary over course and distance in May, 1m2f looks to be her optimum trip. 3.15 (The Arc) Orfevre - should've won the race last year, Christophe Soumillon bound to time his challenge closer to home this time. Treve was impressive when winning the Prix de Diane and Prix Vermeille but has an unfavourable draw from stall 15. However, she could be in the same league as 2008 winner Zarkava and if she is, then will be the one to beat. 4.40 Moonlight Cloud - got to be the banker of the day.
They didn't go any mad gallop in the trials so you would hope it has brought them all along rather than taken any edge off them. Kizuna travelled lovely but Ruler did finish ferociously that day, even having to switch inside rather than out. It's a cracking good race to be honest, so I'll sit back and enjoy. My logic is that we have a clear Derby winner with a turn of foot who we know handles a bit of cut and he is drawn to be in the midfield near the inner. You have Treve out wide needing some luck, Flintshire unsure with the ground and Intello not sure to stay. Orfevre might hack up or give up, we don't ever know. Of course, it can all pan out differently and maybe those drawn wide will somehow find the magic to slot in. Would be nice to see Maarek land his soft ground Group 1- that looks an open race though. Any takers at 28s for Lady Cecil's Tickled Pink?
No bets for me today...I ll just watch the Arc which should be a cracking race.. If i was having one i would go for Intello.. i think he will stay.
