47 Points for Safety!! 11 Games Left.

How many points do Bristol City need to guarantee their Championship status for next season?
The Robins have never really been in relegation danger this season but are still not completely mathematically nor historically safe

It may not exactly conform to the idea of Bristol City having particularly ambitious expectations but if there's one thing that can be branded an achievement this season it's that the spectre of relegation has never really been a thing under Nigel Pearson.

After a relatively positive start to the campaign had them around the top 10, City have spent the majority of the season in the lower mid-table area of the Championship, moving between 15th and 19th, but always maintaining relative daylight on the bottom three, aided by the points deductions incurred by Derby County and Reading.

The Robins have a 17-point buffer on the relegation zone, occupied by Barnsley, Derby and Peterborough, and with 11 games remaining that should be sufficient in all-but guaranteeing Championship football for 2022/23. However, history tells us they still need a few more results on the board to boost their 40-point haul to ensure such a conclusion.

Based on the team finishing 21st over the last 10 seasons, the highest points total secured in that final survival spot was the 55 by Barnsley in 2012/13 - as City finished rock bottom on 41 points - with the lowest being 43 reached by Bolton Wanderers in the 2017/18 campaign.

Taking the finishing total of the 21st-placed teams over the last 10 seasons as a mean average, that produces a figure of 47.3 as a target for survival (not taking into account goal difference), meaning two more wins and a draw will get City there.

Using that as a benchmark for the teams currently in the bottom three, it means Barnsley need 1.81 points per game from their remaining 13 games. The Tykes have averaged just 0.69 so far but are on an upward trend having won three of their last four.

Derby and Peterborough, meanwhile, require 2.16 and 2.0 per game, respectively, to reach 47 with the Rams having played one more match than bottom-placed Posh. Of course, with Reading in 21st and on just 29 points, there's every chance the required total for survival will be lower than 47 given how few points those teams have taken up to this point.

In looking at the recent history of the league, the teams in 21st have reached 44, 49, 44 and 43, increasingly indicating that the mid-40s is a mark to aim for.

It also needs to be taken into account that while finishing 21st secures your Championship status, in simple points terms the real mark for safety is effectively one more than what the 22nd-placed sides have finished on.

E.g in 2018/19 Rotherham went down on 40 points so although Millwall finished above them with 44, 41 would have been sufficient (we used that example because over the last two seasons, the team in 21st has been just a point above the final relegated side).

With that in mind, the mark for survival is lower than 47.3, at 45.2. Which leaves City requiring just a win and two draws to ensure they're playing second tier football next season. There's a good reason FiveThirtyEight place the Robins' chances of relegation at under one per cent.

We don't want to tempt fate here, but it looks highly unlikely that Pearson's side - even with their troubling goal difference - need to worry about relegation. But if that was to transpire between now and May 7, it would represent a truly catastrophic end to the campaign.
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/how-many-more-points-bristol-6737593

 

We will make it..