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2YO Horses To Note 2019 Flat Season

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grendel, Jun 9, 2019.

  1. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    With Royal Ascot on the horizon and betting already available for next year's classics I thought it might be worth having a thread for 2YO horses who could make an impact this season or who might be candidates for next year's top races, or just possibly be worth following at their own level.

    Monarch Of Egypt was the first colt to catch my eye this season and he won his first race over 5F in good style. The race has had some boosts and the son of American Pharaoh looked as if 6F would be no problem for his next start. There was talk of the Coventry Stakes for the colt and I had, had a small wager on him at 25/1 for that race but it is almost certainly sunk with the news that he will most likely skip the Royal meeting completely and next be seen in the Railway Stakes on the 29th of June. Entered in the Derby, it would seem unlikely that a 5F early season 2YO would stay that far and even the Guineas will be a question until he races over further.

    Etoile is slightly unusual in being a first time out 2YO winner for Aidan O'Brien. So many of them need their first start and it was Etoile's stablemate So Wonderful who was a shade of odds-on for the Group 3 Coolmore Stud Sprint Stakes, having run a very promising 2nd on debut. So Wonderful was disappointing though and could manage on 5th, while Etoile knuckled down well and showed a bit of tenacity into the bargain to hold off previous winner Peace Charter by half a length. Etoile was relatively unfancied at 12/1 and it takes a good performance to beat fillies with experience in a Group 3 on your debut. I had a bet on Etoile for the Albany at Royal Ascot at 6/1 and was pleased to hear the trainer confirm that this race is her target. Etoile's Dam was runner up to Zarkava in the Prix Diane back in the day and she should get a mile in time. Rated 100 by the Racing Post, I think any improvement will make Etoile hard to beat in the Albany. 6/1 looks fair to me.

    Lope Y Fernandez is unsurprisingly by Lope De Vega and he was favourite for his debut race for Aidan O'Brien. Kicking off over 7F the colt did not fluff his lines in picking up really well to run out a ready winner over stablemate Kipling, who could not answer the turn of pace shown by the favourite. Hard to know what Lope Y Fernandez beat but you got the feeling Kipling was quite well thought of as well and the son of Lope De Vega won by nearly 4 lengths eased down. He looked well above average to me and there was talk of the Chesham as his next outing. Churchill took the Chesham before going on to Guineas glory the following season and Lope Y Fernandez is the best 7F colt I have seen so far this season. He is 5/2 for the Chesham, so I took the option of an interest for the 2000 Guineas at 33/1. Sure, it's a long way off but he's a more realistic contender than some of those in that betting market and further success will see his odds shorten.

    Those are my leading interests at the moment. No doubt Ascot will see others emerge and the usual Irish 2YO races will throw up plenty of names for the notebook.
     
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  2. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    That G3 at Naas doesnt look too hot, Celtic Beauty and American Lady 3rd and 4th for yards who arent exactly known for having top class sprinting 2yos. Peace Charter and So Wonderful are likely 8-10f fillies next season and the race was basically a repeat of the Naas maiden, the 3rd Glow Worm finished in front of Celtic Beauty and has since been beaten in 2 poor maidens at Dundalk and the Curragh. Id say that race is G3 6f form in name only and Etoile hasnt faced anything like the American filly and likely a few other prospects who will run here.
     
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  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I am anticipating a fair bit of improvement from Etoile.

    It's an easy game to play suggesting that 6/1 shots won't win because it's long odds-on that they will be beaten.

    Come on Eddie, give us the Albany winner then? Nayibeth won a four and a half furlong race on concrete at Keeneland and for all Wesley Ward's successes at Ascot, some of them have disappointed as well. Final Song is a 5F soft ground winner and the competition that day did not look anything to get too excited about. That covers the first three in the Albany betting and I would rather have an O'Brien filly over a Charlie Appleby filly to improve on their second start because the Godolphin 2YO's are often ready to rock from day 1. Ward's filly may well have the speed but will she last the 6F?

    Paddy Power have Etoile at 4/1 and I could imagine she will be popular come the day of the race.

    Any 2YO's catch your eye so far Eddie?
     
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  4. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    She will improve and I agree she will be popular like every other o'Brien and Moore runner, just don't think it was a strong race she won and she will be better over further.

    The filly who ran second to Nayibeth won easily at Woodbine next time, shes by carpe diem so 6f shouldn't be an issue, it was the fastest 2yo time at keeneland this season but still some way below the sectionals lady aurelia produced on debut so shes probably not a superstar.

    I quite like Divine Spirit at 10s, she bolted to post, ran green and still won easily first time. Shes by Kingman and her dam was 2nd in a Queen Mary, be interesting if Doyle picks her over Final Song.

    It will likely be 20 runners 4/1 the field on the day.
     
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  5. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Had a look at Wesley Ward 2yo stats at Ascot. Safe to say he excels in the 5f races but not at 6f.

    5f
    Runs: 26
    Place: 9
    Wins: 7
    AVG SP: 7/1

    6f
    Runs: 11
    Place: 1
    Wins: 0
    AVG SP: 12/1

    From the quotes this year, sounds like there is not a lot between his best 2yos and no standout.

    Ward said: "I'm very excited about the team. I don't think I have a Lady Aurelia in there, but as a group they're very solid. They trade places during the morning workouts in terms of which is the best, but I think they're all very talented. If the first one wins, I'll be going into the rest of the meeting very confident - as long as we get some sunshine."

    Sectionals for some of his main ones this year and some of his previous winners, all 4.5f at Keeneland.

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    The vibes seem to be that Nayibeth is their best chance but given Wards comments we can assume she is not a standout, and given his record at 6f she might not be a great value favourite. Worth noting that she ran the same day as Chili Petin and produced a far superior performance so I wouldnt write her off, especially if Wards are going well before that race, how she goes in the market will likely depend on that.

    On the clock Kimari has produced the best performance, quite close to last years Norfolk winner Shang Shang Shang, she was also slow away which is unlike Wards and he will likely have her well schooled to start better here. Given Wards record in the 5f races, I think Kimari at 10/1 for the Queen Mary could be the best bet from his team this year.

    Velazquez had intended to ride Lady Pauline over Kimari which is a slight concern, but it wouldnt have been an easy choice by the sounds of it.

    "He has had the choice to ride Kimari, who was a resounding winner here and won by 15 lengths, or Lady Pauline - and he chose Lady Pauline. That says a lot."

     
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    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019
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  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I have noticed the trend of 5F being Wesley's best stamping ground. I was lucky with Lady Aurelia in her season in that I watched her debut live, something I rarely do with USA Racing. I was taken with her low, rapid action and felt she would be a hard filly to catch in the Queen Mary. I managed to snag 8/1 but on the day of the race I thought the ground might have gone against her but she hosed up. Last season I backed Chelsea Cloisters and Shang Shang Shang but neither impressed me the way Lady Aurelia had done. Chelsea Cloisters was disappointing and Shang Shang Shang was a real heartstopper before holding on.

    I generally feel the Lady Aurelia romp put paid to the notion of any value in the Ward youngsters at Royal Ascot and I felt Lady Pauline was way short for the Queen Mary after her debut win simply because she was shorter than Lady Aurelia was at the same stage of her career and you are unlikely to get two as good as that in a lifetime, never mind over a few seasons. Lady Pauline was beaten at 4/11 Fav when trying a UK prep run for Royal Ascot and she now misses the Queen Mary after a minor injury. She had a task on anyway, given that she was still rated about a stone lower than Lady Aurelia after two races than the former winner was after her debut.

    I only back Ward runners in the 5F races and after last season's performances I was very wary about doing any of them this season. In the end I haven't backed any at all.

    Chasing Dreams is my Queen Mary filly, I thought she was most impressive in beating Good Vibes, who had looked perhaps the more natural build of sprinter than the Appleby filly. Five lengths was an impressive margin and Good Vibes has won twice since. The third filly, Kemble, dotted up by five lengths at Windsor next time and the runner up there went on to win by 8 lengths in a class 3 Novice race at Bath. The form looks good on rough collateral lines, with the last filly mentioned in the line, Illusionist, on a RPR of 87 now, yet the best part of 13 lengths behind Chasing Dreams on the line through Kemble.

    Anna's Fast could be Ward's best shout in the Queen Mary but he has a few candidates, while Ickworth looks the leading Irish player but her race has not worked out so well with King Neptune beaten comfortably by Siskin next time and a couple of the others well held by Etoile in that "Bad" Group 3 race. On Racing Post figures Ickworth is a couple of pounds higher, 97 to 95, but I would have the Godolphin filly the higher of the two myself.

    Nayibeth is entered in the Queen Mary and the Albany but while the runner up in her Keeneland race went on to win well next time it was only a Maiden race and she was 4/11 Fav, so it wasn't anything other than was expected of her.

    I think the leading 2YO's from Great Britain and Ireland set a decent standard and I'll be staying with them over the Ascot meeting.
     
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  7. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Chelsea Cloisters was the hype horse last year but on the clock she was nothing special on debut, think Ward has a stronger group this season and you dont need to be Lady Aurelia to win a race.

    I wasnt overly impressed by Chasing Dreams, she was workmanlike, knew her job on debut as the betting suggested and the runner up Good Vibes was notably clueless. Good Vibes improved to win next time but she again looked very green, and it wasnt until her 3rd start she actually ran straight and looked professional in a weak looking listed event. Dangerous to assume she ran to that level on debut or that Chasing Dreams has improved in the same manner.

    Ickworth beat American Lady by the same 2 1/4L as Etoile, that form looks early season listed level and wont be good enough to win this G2.
     
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  8. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The other obvious concern for the Ward horses will be the ground. The going at Ascot is currently good to soft with showers possible tomorrow and Saturday before a warmer spell and more showers possible next week. The stiffer the stamina requirement the more the US youngsters will struggle and Ward said he was hoping for Good ground next week.

    Charlie Appleby immediately stated that Chasing Dreams would not have another race before Royal Ascot and he also said he expected her to improve for the race. Timeform have Chasing Dreams on 99p and that is a decent mark for a once raced horse. I would say it would be dangerous to assume improvement if we were looking at backing a horse who was very short for a race but having backed Chasing Dreams at 12/1 the danger factor is already well built into the odds. There always has to be some aspect of doubt in order to get bigger odds on any betting event. My objective is to get better odds than the horse will go off at on the day of the race.

    On 99p Chasing Dreams is only 1 lb behind Threat and 4 lbs behind Arizona, the colts who are 2nd Fav and Fav for the Coventry. Interestingly Timeform's top rated thus far is Mark Johnston's Visinari who is rated 106p. Visinari is a Dark Angel colt who beat Ottoman Court by a cosy three and a half lengths with the pair ten lengths clear of the third. The concern with that rating from my point of view is that Ottoman Court had gone off 4/9 Fav for his Nottingham debut but managed only a disappointing 5th place. Obviously his fans didn't learn their lesson, as he went off 11/8 Fav second time out only to get the BF2 to his name. He'll no doubt go off short again next time with the ubiquitous "Caught a tartar last time out" tagline in the preview.

    Arizona is shortening up for the Coventry, no doubt because punters have realised original Fav Monarch Of Egypt is not running. Arizona bolted up by 8 lengths last time after a debut second but he was 8/15 Fav for that maiden race and 4/1 is tight enough to my eye.
     
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  9. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    I dont bother much with 2yos before Ascot, find the backend maidens more interesting, so have barely seen any of the horses who will be running at Ascot and will only study the races the night before. Find myself watching less and less British/Ire racing every year, the card at Belmont on Saturday was exceptional, just a far superior product than we have over here now imo, charismatic horses in most divisions and the superstars all delivered. Rushing Fall, World of Trouble, Midnight Bisou, Mitole, Bricks And Mortar, I find that I fancy horses far stronger and more often in American G1s than I do in ours.
     
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  10. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Etoile has had a small setback and misses the Ascot meeting. Monarch Of Egypt was also said to have had a small setback. With Magna Grecia having had a pulled hamstring you would think Aidan O'Brien couldn't train horses :cry:
     
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  11. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    another antepost bet in the bin, surely you will land one this season? youve still got a few long term favs to run at this meeting so never know
     
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  12. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    It's been a bad season for injuries. Just to add insult to injury Chasing Dreams was found to be lame this morning and at as low as 3/1 for the Queen Mary, she now misses the race. That's part of the gamble but it's very frustrating when it is injuries that cause horses to miss races. Sometimes they just aren't good enough, sometimes they don't go the race you thought they might but when they get injured on the way to the intended target it's frustrating. I won't bet on that race now. I don't fancy anything else and it's just one of those scenarios. I would have been backing Chasing Dreams on sufferance really had she been 3/1 on the day and knowing 12/1 was available earlier.

    Just waiting now for other news of a falling safe from a 5th storey building landing on one of my ante-post horses.
     
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  13. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    If ever proof were needed that ante post gambling was a bookies benefit. That's why they all drive Bentleys.
     
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  14. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Kimari now 4/1 fav

    10/1 looking fair value
     
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  15. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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  16. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Not in your league, but I picked up a comment by Maureen (Piggott) Haggas at the Dante meeting. Their Royal filly Magnetic Charm had just won and she was saying that although originally to be aimed at the 10f fillies race at RA, she would probably now go for the Coronation Stakes. She then went on to say that they had a nice bunch of Royal 2yos. So thought I'd take a look at them just in case one or two of them prove useful.

    Award Scheme: a Siyouni filly out of a winning (2yo) Queens Prize (by Dansili out of a Daylami sister to an Oaks 2nd). Likely to need 7f at least, she is the 2nd foal and first foal, West Newton (by Kittens Joy), took some time to catch on but has won over 12f. From pictures I've seen looks an attractive filly and I'd expect to see her making her debut in July/August.

    Dusty Dream: a Dubawi filly out of that good 2yo Memory (by Danehill Dancer). This is the 5th foal and so far there have been 3 winners (two of them listed or better) and two of the three won as 2yos, the best being Acomb Stakes winner Recorder. I would imagine that there are a lot of hopes for this filly, and it is interesting to note the mare has been sent back to Dubawi. If she runs as a 2yo, she could start over 6f as Recorder did, but two of the foals did not appear until 3yos.

    Fruition: an Oasis Dream colt out of an interesting mare called Ananas (by Nayef), who just happens to be out of a Sadler's Wells sister to Dancing Brave. Looks good on paper but a first foal out of an unraced mare whose dam achieved little: but there's good blood there!

    Kew Palace: a Kingman filly out of Shama (by Danehill Dancer out of a mare tracing back to Shergar). A 2nd foal and half-sister to the slightly disappointing Shrewdness (by Lawman). The problem with Shama was although she ran as a 2yo (placed) and won on her debut as a 3yo, she was a very big filly. Now big mares can tend to produce big backward offspring. However the right sire could change things and Kingman could be that sire. It is to be hoped this attractive filly runs soon, which would be a good sign.

    Portray: a colt by Dubawi and the only one of Haggas's sextet not to be bred by the Royal Stud. The mare is by Sea the Stars and comes from the Wildenstein family of Peintre Celebre and Pawneese. This will be a colt who'll need 10f as a minimum. If he runs as a 2yo you'll expect it to be later in the year. He is one of the Queen's entries for the 2020 Derby.

    Sound Mixer: a Cable Bay filly out a fair 2yo winner Medley ( by Danehill Dancer) who has already produced the decent filly Light Music. Should be a fast filly, ideally suited to 6-7f and it will be a real surprise if she doesn't make her debut before the end of August. Definitely well-named if nothing else.

    I am purely following up on what Maureen Haggas said. Haggas is a good placer of horses and has a consistently high score rate of winners to runners. It remains to be seen whether this can result in one or two of these ('nice 2yos') turn out to be useful.
     
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  17. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Any thoughts on the Coventry Grendel?

    Struggling to look beyond Arizona and Threat, leaning towards the latter and will be surprised if he starts anywhere near the 7/1 currently available, was impressed by how he finished on debut, looked like there was a lot more to come stepping up to 6f with a decent gallop.
     
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  18. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Hannon sounds quite bullish about Threat but the stable haven't been as good with their 2YO's this past couple of years.

    Monarch Of Egypt beat Sunday Sovereign by more than 4 lengths on debut and that colt went on to beat Arizona by lengths next time out. That formline gave Monarch Of Egypt a favourite's chance in the Coventry in my opinion and in the same situation again I would have taken 25/1 on Monarch Of Egypt because they won't always pick up an injury and miss the race.

    Arizona is favourite for the Coventry because of the trainer and because he won his maiden by 8 lengths next time out, but he was 8/15 Fav for that maiden. Sunday Sovereign went on to drop back to 5F next time and bolted up by 7 lengths conceding 5 lbs to the second, who was clear of the 3rd horse.

    Threat floored a Godolphin hotpot at Newmarket but that was only a 4 runner race over 5F. With an extra furlong and a lot more on his plate in the Coventry I don't really see a lot a value in him. He will improve but I think he needs a bit yet to justify his odds.

    Visinari is Timeform's top rated 2YO so far this year. I have a pet hate of Mark Johnston for so many inconsistent runs from his 2YO's. It often seems the case that some of his youngsters don't go on from their first run as one might expect and sometimes they throw in a stinker. I just couldn't back Visinari in confidence but he is respected all the same.

    Siskin is a First Defence colt trained by Ger Lyons. The stable is in good form and Siskin saw off Aidan O'Brien's King Neptune in a Listed race last time. Rated close to the best of the 2YO's so far by Timeform he has won both starts at 6F so he doesn't have the concern of 5F colt stepping up an extra furlong. Neither of King Neptune's first two races has worked out to anything so far though and I feel Siskin is a tad short with the form not being franked to date.

    Guildsman is a son of Wootton Bassett trained by Archie Watson and he sluiced home on soft ground at Goodwood by six lengths on debut. I have seen a tendency for Watson's horses not to progress as well as some other trainers and I have been disappointed by the stable often enough to leave Guildsman out of this one. His ability to act on soft may be a big asset but with the runner up in his race having beaten almost as far in 5th place in his only other start, there was enough doubt to pass.

    It is 16/1 bar the ones mentioned above and I might have been tempted to take Sunday Sovereign to confirm a three length win from Arizona but that colt is going to the Norfolk Stakes according to his trainer. Arizona is a much more substantial colt than Sunday Sovereign and long term he has the bigger future of the two, I just feel he is short enough now so I am not going to play on the Coventry. I have backed Sunday Sovereign at 11/2 for the Norfolk. He's a smaller colt but he has plenty of pace and I reckon he could be hard to catch. He has won on fast and yielding ground and having won at 6F he should have no fears if it gets testing. I felt he was better value at 11/2 for the Norfolk than Arizona at 7/2 for the Coventry.

    Norfolk Stakes Sunday Sovereign 11/2

    No play for me in the Coventry but I didn't lose much on Monarch Of Egypt at 25/1 and it looked promising for a while.
     
    #18
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  19. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    Interesting read Bustino. However I read somewhere that Haggas is 0/71 for his Royal Ascot runners. Glass half full types will say that he's due a bunch of winners there next week. I'm not that type! Other trainers with fairly miserable recent Ascot records are Varian 1/65 and Channon 1/51. No idea how many of those were 2 yo's though.
     
    #19
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2019
  20. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Threat is crying out for the 6f, Hannon wanted to wait for a 6f maiden but said he was working so well he had to run him, on pedigree he should be a miler in the making. Obviously you cant make much of a case on paper as it was a muddling 4 runner maiden but I just thought he was very strong in the closing stages and after the line, and maybe the muddling nature of the race masked his superiority at the minimum trip.

    The runner up is a half to Ribchester and had the benefit of a decent debut 2nd in a Newmarket maiden, the 3rd and 4th were both neck 2nds at Yarmouth and Goodwood next time as well so the front 2 could be decent. Only 1 other 5f 2yo Newmarket maiden has dipped under 1:00 on good ground in the last 10 years, won by Swiss Dream, and I think the ground was faster than described. The time was solid and he finished with plenty in the tank, taking some pulling up.

    I dont think Hannon Jnr is as good a trainer as his father but he has had a 2nd and 3rd in the Coventry in recent years and I think this is probably the best 2yo hes come across.

    Will have a speculative punt at 50/1 for the Guineas as well.
     
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