As indicated in Cyclonic's thread on American Pharoah, there seems to be some interest in this year's 147th running of the Belmont Stakes in New York on June 6th, so thought I'd try a separate thread on the race: American Pharoah is all the rage, and quite rightly so. The colt has done everything asked of him so far, and most impressively, one must say. Ante-Post odds way too short for this peasant, so have tried to find one that might cause the favourite a problem, but it is not easy this year. So, have come up with trainer Todd Pletcher's Materiality. The horse's breeding is a right old mish-mash, and Bustino would know more than I on this, but it does appear there is some middle-distance influence in its ancestory, which should be enough. Also, I felt sure that in the end, somewhere, we would get back to Northern Dancer, and sure enough we did, on the dam's side. Materiality is very lightly raced, and is a fairly late foal, and in his first race, at Gulfstream Park in January of this year, he won in "Sloppy" conditions over 6-furlongs. In his next two races, both in March, the colt won on "Fast" ground over 9-furlongs, the last one being the Florida Derby (time of 1:52.30 very slow for this Group 1 race though, however, horse was still very inexperienced). In the Kentucky Derby, Materiality was unable to lie-up with the pace in the big field and had to drop back, but did stay-on to finish a fairly respectable 6th. The following, from "Bleacher Report", spells out the colt's chance in the Belmont much better than I can: "Materiality (8-1) is another horse who did fairly well in the Derby and did not run in the Preakness. He came into the Run for the Roses undefeated in three starts, but he had been lightly raced. Materiality had won his three previous races by getting to the front early. But that was a task he could not handle in the 18-horse field, and he was shuffled toward the back of the pack. He should be much more comfortable in the 11-horse Belmont field. If Materiality can get off to a sharp start and the fractions are not abusive, he has a chance to make a strong showing. As rains drenched the Pimlico Race Course and American Pharoah sloshed 1 3/16 miles Saturday while winning the Preakness Stakes, a number of his future foes rested. Belmont Stakes probables Materiality and Madefromlucky, both trained by Todd Pletcher, as well as Mubtaahij, are already stationed in New York leading up to the June 6 race. Pletcher held out of the Preakness altogether, with the once-beaten Florida Derby winner Materiality -- who overcame a tough trip in the Derby to run sixth -- the horse he considered entering most. "With those kinds of decisions you just never know, but with the downpour and everything, I was happy we were safely at home and got a good work into him," said Pletcher, whose colt breezed a half mile in 49.03 seconds Saturday on Belmont's training track." So, after all that, have had a sporting ante-post bet on Materiality at 8-1 with Bet365! With my current luck, watch one of Pletcher's other two win it!
I just had a peed at the race again Swanny, your horse did run well. He ran on well down the straight, as did the next horse, Keen Ice. It's about 12-1.
Frosted for me. I like horses who run in the Kentucky Derby, miss the Preakness and return for the Belmont. Don't know why but am not keen on running in the three Triple Crown races as it means starting at 10 furlongs, then dropping back to 9 furlongs, then stretching out to 12 furlongs. Plus the three races are so close together it is know wonder there have been so few TC winners.
The names of some of the runners and the Materiality it invokes, suggests that maybe Frosted and Keen Ice in quinellas might be the way to go.
Heck of a lot going on Friday and Saturday this side of the big pond, but here's the latest prices from Oddschecker on the last big one Saturday, this time on the other side of the lake: American Pharoah (11/10), Frosted (5), Materiality (6), Mubtaahij (12), Carpe Diem (20), Madefromlucky (20), Tale Of Verve (25), Keen Ice (28), Frammento (40).
Might break my habit of only betting on the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the 'Arc' since retirement and have a punt on Saturday evening. Really fancy 'Frosted' at 5/1.
We're talking real racing now lads, not that rubbish known as Royal Ascot. Go the good horse with Keen Ice to stagger into the minor money.
Now, Cyc, then why are you sending your horses over for this 'rubbish'? Hard to swallow for you, I know, but it's probably the world's greatest week in flat racing. Some great champions of the past have raced and won there.
The rest of the world is sending horseflesh in an effort to lift the flagging reputation of the European racing scene Swanny. You may have noticed that I've been working my arse off in an effort to give some credence to the chances of those making the trip to help out there. Now I can't speak for the entrants from the USA and Asia, but the Australian contingent is really our second string, they are there to just make up the numbers. God forbid that one of these scrubbers should run well over there, afterall, what would that say about UK racing?
Geh! Two of Europe's 'scrubbers' damn nearly beat Black Caviar (was she a 'second string?). No, we don't have a flagging reputation in Europe. Come to think of it, how in hell have we done, relatively speaking, so well in the Melbourne Cup, and your other 'Cups' prior to the MC, since we were allowed in? Even some other 'Australian' winners of the MC in recent years were born and bred in the UK or Ireland? It's no wonder that bloody Bart Cummings wanted nothing to do with our racehorses, who can blame him? Strange that. I'm certain that I would not qualify for Cummings buying me a Foster's? Nevermind, since I am a good sport, I'd buy him a Tegernseer 'Spezial', to ease the pain.
Weren't you watching the Black Caviar race Swanny? Remember Luke Nolan had to ease the horse up to let your lot get close before taking her to the line. The press, being on a par with the local animals, didn't have a clue. It was a master plan devised months before just to make the local sprinters look a little better. It was a really nice gesture don't you think? And not a single person said thank you. But we didn't mind, a good deed brings it's own rewards.
I did indeed watch the race, and, oh, is that what happened? Then Luke Nolan was not the jackass I at first thought he was! In reality though, it was not until I heard that Black Caviar had a physical issue during the race itself that I realised, in the end, what a good job he did in getting the mare home, and I was quite wrong to criticize him. Had to eat humble pie, remember it well. But to be quite honest, the second and third were hardly Europe's best sprinters, far from it. One of them was basically a 7-furlong horse. Think they were both French? Tell you what, we'll do the same in this year's MC, we'll give yours a bit of a start, and race on the wide outside. That'll give the Aussie horses a chance.
American Pharoah takes to the track on Saturday in the G1, mile and a half Belmont Stakes, with just 7 to beat. Betting as expected, sees him in the red, at the moment he a 3-5 chance to complete the Triple Crown. It'll take one hell of an effort.
I just hope that after the performance Espinoza had on American Pharoah last time, he doesn't deserve to win it but for the horse himself he does! My pick as e/w pick would be Mubtaahij - is pretty much guaranteed to see the trip which many good American horses aren't bred for distance - and before you say anything I know he was an import , of whom won the UAE Derby from what I read he had quite a bit of money behind him on Kentucky Derby day when he was a hard finishing eighth - he was expected to go well in the Preakness but skipped it to be frsh for this, so am expecting him to run well
Read a really interesting essay on why the Triple Crown has not been achieved in so long Kenny. They suggested that it may be down to the use of Lasix.
More than likely. Just had a quick look at the records. The winners of the Triple Crown seem to come in bursts; six winners in fourteen years from 1935 to 1948 then three winners in six years from 1973 to 1978. Since Affirmed I think there have been about a dozen winners of the first two legs who have 'failed' in the Belmont Stakes. One of the main reasons would likely be the lack of 'staying' pedigrees in recent US bloodstock. Are there any other 12 furlong grade 1 races run on dirt in the United States? In fact are there any other graded races run over 12 furlongs on dirt in the US? Two further difficulties are, of course, the proximity of the three races and the stretch from 9.5 furlongs in the Preakness to 12 furlongs in the Belmont . As in recent attempts we look at the horse attempting to win the Triple Crown and think that defeat is extremely unlikely however again and again they are beaten. I have a strange feeling that again we will be disappointed! 'Frosted' for me!
