The Arkle is the championship 2 mile race for novice chasers and recent winners include Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe and Moscow Flyer. Going back over the winners list reads like a who's-who of racing greats with names such as Pendil, Flyingbolt, Fortria and Sir Ken to name but a few. Wikipedia page is here. Cheltenham's unique undulations and stiff fences, coupled with the usual strong pace of the race, combine to make this the ultimate jumping test for novice chasers. The race usually sees horses who were bred to be chasers, but sometimes high-class hurdlers who are just short of Champion Hurdle class are sent over the larger obstacles - Overturn in last year's race being a prime example. This is reflected in the early market for the 2014 race with the natural born chasers like Champagne Fever and Un Atout in there with Grandouet, Rock On Ruby and Oscar Whiskey in some books. The current market is probably not indicative of what will line up on the day, just this week Nicky Henderson talked of Grandouet as a Champion Hurdle horse, but here it is as of September 7th (oddschecker, Bet Victor prices): Champagne Fever 5 Grandouet 10 Rock On Ruby 10 Un Atout 12 Oscar Whiskey 16 Melodic Rendezvous 16 Annie Power 16 River Maigue 16 Puffin Billy 16 Chatterbox 16 20/1 bar This market can be subject to significant early-season fluctuations as a number of the main protaganists will be sent out for their first run over fences on decent ground to assess their jumping ability - the early season displays of Overturn last season saw him jump to the head of the market before Simonsig had seen a fence. The established trials over the winter include the Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Open meeting in November, the Henry VIII novices chase at Sandown in December, the Racing Post Novices Chase at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, the Wayward Lad at Kempton a day later and of course the Irish Arkle towards the end of January.
Again, no wager struck in this yet but Un Atout does indeed look every inch a chaser and I'm excited to see how he does.
What was this race called in Flyingbolts time? I think we have to look at the previous years Supreme to find the horses who will be fancied on the day, with Mullins holding the nap hand
I was all over him for Chelts 2012, but disappointed in how he ran. And although he won next time out - it was a 3 runner race and he made hard work of it, managing to beat Ubak by a neck. I'll need re-convincing before trusting him with my state pension again
This has proved a huge enjoyable race for Not606 members these past couple of years as Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer, has mopped up with Sprinter Sacre and then Simonsig amid much rejoicing. Nothing this time around though leaps off the old page like those 2 animals did. One that I’d like to mention though who isn’t quoted is my old fave and ‘hope of the county’ MONTBAZON. My long term regular readers will recall I was shouting this one from the rooftops prior to his racecourse debut and he has enjoyed a successful career both in National Hunt Flat races and in novice hurdles. However, he’s been off the track since finishing an excellent 4th in the ‘2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle’. Montbazon is back in training but I’ve no idea if the plan to remain over hurdles or tackle fences in season 2013/14. If it’s the latter though pay him special attention as he’s the potential to go right to the bally top.
I'm all over CHAMPAGNE FEVER, his Supreme form is awesome (over 3 seconds quicker time than The Fly's Champion Hurdle win). 2nd and 3rd have both won grade 1's since, My Tent Or Yours at Aintree and Jezki at Punchy. He looks every inch a chaser, is a repeat offender at the Fest (3 from 3 Fests) and an Arkle winner is often a horse who could go Gold Cup route the following year.I'm alreayd on quite a few times at 8/1 Paddy power on singles and acca's, I sugest you all do the same
Update 23rd October 2013: Latest betting from Bet Victor today: Champagne Fever 5 Grandouet 10 Oscar Whiskey 16 River Maigue 16 Melodic Rendezvous 16 Annie Power 16 Chatterbox 16 Puffin Billy 16 Rebel Fitz 16 Dodging Bullets 20 Defy Logic 20 25/1 Bar Main movers here are: Un Atout is taken out of the betting after Willie Mullins declared him out for the season. Dodging Bullets comes into the betting at 20/1 after a pleasing debut over fences at Kempton, although it may not have ended in victory if Turn Over Sivola hadn't clouted the second last.
I think this is Champagne Fever's most likely target at the moment but I can also envisage a scenario where he runs under par between now and the Festival and goes off around the 5/1 or bigger mark so his current price seems short to me. I think you have to factor in the problems Mullins has had converting top class novice hurdlers into top class novice chasers also. I'm a big fan of his as a trainer but it is an area he has struggled with on occasion. If the horse was a double digit price it's worth the risk . At only 5/1 I'd have reservations getting really stuck in. My position on that horse would be to have a little amount on after a hot streak so i'd just be risking a small part of the winnings and nought else. Having said that I have no doubt he's better than the rest of the horses in the list Oddy posted today and he does have an affinity with that hill. The question is whether Mullins can get him to jump those big fences fluently. This is an interesting race on paper although three superstars in the Arkle in three consecutive years is most likely a little too much to ask.
I think the best laugh I get looking at that market is seeing Granduoet is second favourite at 10s The Arkle is such a brutal race, Granduoet will have the white flag waving after 2 fences That horse finds nothing when off the bridle and the Arkle isn't won by a bridle bunny.
Champagne Fever will go jumping. He did very well at the end of his bumper career and also last year, before we went hurdling, he showed he was a natural jumper. However I felt he would need the experience of a year over hurdles to teach him how to race. We learned an awful lot about him too, last season. He looks a natural to go chasing over the minimum trip," said Mullins.
Two very nice performances already this week in 2 mile novice chases - the first was from Paul Nolan's Defy Logic who landed odds of 2/5 on his chasing debut with consumate ease at Naas on Monday. Defy Logic had a rating of 146 over hurdles as a novice after his head 2nd to Mala Beach in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse in March. Although today's wasn't the greatest race on paper, the second had previous chase experience and Defy Logic was simply miles better on the day. He jumped safely rather than spectacularly and has been priced up at 16/1 for the Arkle by a number of firms. Secondly, Jonjo O'Neil's Taquin De Seuil made his chasing debut at Ffos Las today and won as he liked by 2L on the bridle from Bob Ford. His jumping was also safe rather than spectacular and it was a lovely introduction for the horse who won the Challow last season before finishing 6th in what I think will prove to be an above-average Neptune at the festival. You can get 25s for the Arkle, 16s for the Jewson and 20s for the RSA so clearly the bookies are as clueless as we are as to where he might run .
I must say I think a few are being a tad unfair about Grandouet on this thread. He was a 6 time winner over timber (including at Grade 1 and Grade 2 level) and was most unlucky at the last 2 Festivals – injury ruled him out in ’12 and in ’13 he fell 4 out when yet to deliver his challenge in the old ‘Champion Hurdle’. Was rated 166 in that sphere and has to go down, as a result, as one of the best hurdlers of recent seasons. Meanwhile, he’s proved in the last 2 runnings of Cheltenham’s ‘International Hurdle’ (formerly the ‘Bula’ both his effectiveness at the track and his toughness. Re chasing Grandouet could possibly make his debut at Uttoxeter on Friday in a 16 Furlong contest. Plus he’s undoubtedly in the right hands for an Arkle tilt. As Mr Henderson has won the race on 5, yes 5, occasions (including the last 2 renewals).
Grandouet made his chasing debut at Sandown on Saturday and after some sketchy jumping he made a right horlicks of the last fence and unseated Barry Geraghty. Still prevelant in the Arkle betting but looks an even less attractive prospect now than he did a week ago and it really will need something special from Mr Henderson's magic hands to work the oracle on this one.
Mr Henderson’s ‘magic hands’ have performed far stiffer tasks than turning Grandouet into an Arkle winner. Never underestimate their potency or potential, people. Don’t fret though pilgrims, a few soothing words from the forum’s favourite trainer, a pat on the nose and some intense schooling sessions and Grandouet will be back on track. Those bookie chappies have largely left him untouched in the Arkle betting at around the 10/1 to 12/1 perch. Personally, I thought his chasing bow, in the main, to be perfectly adequate. You would expect a few fencing errors and no-one would disagree that he’s in the right hands for these to be ironed out. Upsides a 148 rated chaser at the last (and this figure may rise after Saturday’s race), when making mistakes on debut, is not a bad performance, in the slightest, people. In summary a solid start with plenty of scope for improvement.
