A race that needs no introduction, the Champion Hurdle is the pinnacle of hurdles races - read about it's history and previous winners on wikipedia here. 5 horses have won the race 3 times - Hatton's Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War, See You Then and Istabraq - and this season the reigning champion, Hurricane Fly, will bid to join that exclusive club. As in most years, at this early stage in the season the race looks a mouthwatering clash between the established stars and the top novice hurdlers from the previous season. With Hurricane Fly becoming the first horse to regain the Champion Hurdle since Comedy Of Errors in 1975, one might expect him to already be a warm favourite for this seasons event. However, his poor showing in the race in 2012, plus the emergance of some serious looking novices last season, mean that he is not even favourite for the race in some books, and 5/1 is freely available on him. Much will depend on how quickly Willie Mullins can get him race fit - and keep him race fit. During his 2 successful Champion Hurdle campaigns, "The Fly" had 5 races and won all 5 (start with the Morgiana or Hatton's Grace, then the Istabraq Hurdle over Christmas, the Irish Champion Hurdle end of January, then Cheltenham and round it off with Punchestown). It is telling that during the 2011/12 season, when he was beaten at odds-on at Cheltenham, Mullins did not have him ready to race until the Irish Champion and, although he won that race, he was not at his brilliant best at the festival. If Hurricane Fly wins the Morgiana, Istabraq and Irish Champion Hurdles this time around then he will go to Cheltenham at around the 2/1 or 9/4 mark, so if you fancy him to complete the hat-trick then now is the time to back him. Hurricane Fly's chief rival, not only at Cheltenham but also at home in Ireland, is likely to be the ultra-impressive Triumph Hurdle winner Our Conor. Dessie Hughes' charge, unbeaten in 4 over hurdles, formed the highest profile leg of the Brian Cooper success story at Cheltenham as he romped away with a competitive looking Triumph Hurdle by 15 lengths. Time will tell what that form is worth, but he certainly looked the real deal and his first step into open company will tell us alot about his prospects. Cooper's return from injury is an added bonus. The English challenge at this stage also looks to revolve around last season's novices with My Tent Or Yours and The New One both prominent in the betting. Here the prices from Oddschecker September 7th (Bet 365 prices): Our Conor 9/2 Hurricane Fly 5 My Tent Or Yours 6 The New One 7 Jezki 8 Rock On Ruby 12 Zarkandar 12 Annie Power 16 Grandouet 16 20/1 Bar The key trials in Ireland are the Morgiana, Hatton's Grace, Istabraq and Irish Champion Hurdles and it is entirely possible that Hurricane Fly and Our Conor will meet in one or more of these. In England, the Fighting Fifth, International (formerly Bula) Hurdle, Christmas Hurdle and Kingwell Hurdle are probably the most recognised trials, although Christmas Hurdle winners have a notoriously poor record at Cheltenham.
A reminder of last year's. Result [video=youtube;zlqZJkwWNHs]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=zlqZJkwWNHs[/video] The only one that could reverse the form is Grandouet. Classy horse and wasn't jumping as fluently as usual. A sounder surface will give him a better chance.
Got on Our Conor immediately after his Triumph win at 6-1 Not a great price considering there was 12 months to go, but I was soooo impressed by that, that I overcame my dislike of long range betting and took a medium punt
Hi All. Glad to see conversations about proper racing cropping up A nice little quote from jpfestival.com: 'The weather is finally turning. It was certainly much colder and wetter this morning, with a definite autumnal feel. There was even a robin skipping around on the lawn last night, watching over me as I completed my gardening chores. There can be little doubt that winter jumps racing is only a Sprinter Sacre leap away'. Full article http://jpfestival.com/?p=2328 The Champion Hurdle market will be shaken on its head after the Morigana Hurdle in late November. Hurricane Fly v Our Conor v Jezki. I'm really, really, really looking forward to that. Whoever wins becomes the 7-4 favourite for the Champion Hurdle. Fans of the Fly don't come bigger than me but Our Conor was the best Triumph winner ever and don't underestimate Jezki. He was simply all class at the Punchestown festival and his Cheltenham third deserves massive respect, being as it looked the best Supremes in ages. I think the Morigana race is potentially the race of the season this side of Cheltenham.
I landed some real bets on this race last year and won't go against the Fly when I start ramping up my stake sizes for the jumping season. However, i've only had two ante post Cheltenham bets so far and one is 8/1 for the New One to win the Champion Hurdle with Will Hill. At the end of the day Triumph winners don't usually do that well in this race and it was a weak division last year albeit Our Connor was sensational in victory. That's sufficient reason not to back him at 8/1 let alone the 9/2 you can get at the moment. The New One was great form with the Albert Bartlett winner, won a very competitive Neptune against some very good horses and Neptune winners often develop into excellent older horses. I was swept up in a wave of excitement when I put this small bet on straight after his win but i'm still happy to have a £30 8/1 saver on a horse I think will go off shorter on the day. Even with that bet on I would expect the Hurricane to be very competitive. I don't think he gets up the hill very well but he's so good he might not have to this year. He's won the race twice and both times had everything beaten quite easily before the hill.
THE NEW ONE wins the 2014 Champion Hurdle. A big baby last year and will have improved in physique over the summer. Fantastic engine abd a horse I have loved since I furst saw him. The novices from last year were an impressive bunch and him, OUR CONNOR, AT FISHERS CROSS and MELODIC RENDEZVOUS will all be winning lots of grade ones against their peers!
Very, very difficult puzzle to solve at this stage but you can guarantee that between now and March some bubbles will be burst big time re some of those quoted above. I wouldn’t be confident about anything but if someone held a gun to my head, although I’m sure that no-one would ever want to do that, then I’d nominate Mr Henderson’s MY TENT OR YOURS as the most likely winner. A revelation since the turn of the year he looks very, very good and you can guarantee that the forum’s favourite trainer’s ‘magic hands’ will bring about further improvement and iron out any jumping deficiencies. Meanwhile, if you want one from ‘left field’ consider Simonsig who at the moment has no readily identifiable Cheltenham target. Some may same the ‘Ryanair Chase’ but would connections be truly happy chasing a ‘Division 3 race’ with a top ‘Premier League’ horse?!? Meanwhile, should injury curtail the first half of his season or fencing problems materialise the chances of him being redeployed to the ‘Champion Hurdle’ would increase enormously. A 162 rated hurdler, from his novice days, not much improvement from this form would be necessary to see him figure. Probably won’t happen but if you could find a 3 figure quote it may be worth a closer look.
I was scratching my head, until I got to Sir Barney's post there, why is no one really talking up My Tent or Yours?. If you will recall there was some talk about him being entered in to the Champion Hurdle last season let alone next years!. For me this horse looks the real deal and looks a real beast. I would take him as the likely winner at this time! I m looking forward to hearing about those ante post bets though and hearing all about the bad luck stories following the placing of them. It happens year on year for Cheltenham! Perhaps we should run a post of ante post wagers for Cheltenham and see which ones are dead in the water even months before the festival starts! Strict discipline for me - no ante post bets....
Superbly consistent though he is, it's asking a lot for a horse (Hurricane Fly) to win three Champion Hurdles over a period of four years. Any deterioration would render him very vulnerable. Like Stick, I like The New One's attitude and he's classy. Yet he'd need to improve 7-10 lbs to challenge for the title. Of the others, obviously Our Conor could be anything, but Triumph Hurdle winners have disastrous records in the following year's Champion- only Katchit and Persian War in forty five years have broken the trend. Let's hope he's the real deal, but his ante-post price is poor value. If there is a dark horse in the race, it could be Willie Mullins' Annie Power. She seems to go from strength to strength, but only three mares have ever won the race. However, her price of around 20/1 appeals more than the favourites in what looks a very open contest at this stage. I do tend to think that a first-time participant will win, but which one is anyone's guess.
Got to go against The Fly, only 2 ten year olds have won in the race history (ran since 1927). My Tent Or Yours is the one for me, slick hurdling, pace to burn and hopefully settle better now older, that Supreme form behind Champagne Fever is special, race was over 3 seconds quicker than The Flys win an hour later. The New One the danger, speed and scope and good time in the Neptune. Against Our Conor, 5 year olds have awful record, back him for 2015 glory
I had thought that this was something of a wild, albeit somewhat possible, plan. But I see that Boylesports are taking no chances at all re Simonsig and a possible ‘Champion Hurdle’ tilt and go just 12/1! The question has to be is this a ridiculously stingy quote or WHAT DO THEY KNOW?!?
This looks like it could be the best and most competitive race of the 2014 festival if all the leading players show up. As good as he is I can't see The Fly being able to fend off all the young pretenders unless the ground is soft or worse. He's best price 5s and those crooks at Ladbrokes are a miserly 3s! Rock on Ruby will surely run another big race and my favourite horse Countrywide Flame ran a blinder this year to be 3rd on far from suitable ground. Bear in mind that CF is just a baby (younger in fact than The New One) and will hopefully improve again this coming season. Bit early for the tricast but on good to soft ground I'd take ROR, CF and The New One to contest the finish next March. A fantastic race to look forward too.
I know one thing, my personal favourite Zarkandar wont win it... I know PN had a bit of a slump and bad festival last year, but Zarkandar never got into the race last year and was outclassed in the end. I still think he is a class horse as he still went on to triumph in the Aintree Hurdle holding off sticky boys fav The New One... Blinkers were applied to him that day but i sort of agree with PN on him that maybe Cheltenham just dos not suit him... Or that the races he has been involved in are just too strong for him...(which is more to my way of thinking if im honest...) The World Hurdle seems the way for him at the moment, and we all know that that particular event has been boxed off by the great Big Bucks for a while now...!!! Will my boy get to add to his only Festival win, the Triumph back in 2011, well he is going to be up against another good one if its in the World... Fingers crossed... As for next years Champion Hurdle winner, well there are a few out there who you could say have a great chance. And its going to be great viewing and good conversation over who merits the win before the actual race... I just cant wait...!!!
Are we sure The New One is definitely sticking to hurdles though? I thought the trainer always viewed him as a chasing prospect with the old adage 'whatever he achieves over hurdles is a bonus'... He's a threat wherever he lines up but just wanted to ask the question.
