The lineup is confirmed, a field of a top quality 8 runners, and 6 days to go. This is the 2011 King George thread, and I for one think this is a lineup with some real depth and will provide some interesting answers to the big question marks over almost the whole field. A really good Group 1 event. We have already discussed the merits of one of the runners and with just days to go it is appropriate to open an official race build-up thread. A 4-time King George and Double Gold Cup winner, the reigning King George and Gold Cup king, The reigning Arkle winner, a former double Champion Chase superstar, an Arkle runner-up and a Hennessey Gold Cup winner all lock horns in a stellar lineup, let's hope it is a good one. Long Run Undoubtedy the one to beat. Kauto Star's magic performance at Haydock will live forever, but the realist in us all know it would take something very special to beat Long Run again at Kempton. Long Run might improve a fair chunk for his return at Haydock and is the rightful favourite. There is an awful lot of speed in the race this year though, and if his jumping doesn't meet the requirments, he will lose too much ground. The argument against him is in essence two-fold: 1) Did he really beat a Kauto Star anywhere near his best in last years renewal? 2) Did Cheltenham favour his obvious stamina? Nicky Henderson, who trains Long Run, told the Guardian: "Of course the public might not want me to do it, but it's my job to dethrone Kauto Star." He went on: "Over the past year we could beat Kauto Star easily, as simple as that. But Kauto wasn't anywhere near his prime in those two races (the King George and the Gold Cup). Now Paul Nicholls has got him back to his best, and Kauto beat Long Run at Haydock last month, we're in for one hell of a race. "Even last year everyone else wanted Kauto to win. We really wrecked the party. That's why the Haydock reception was phenomenal. People always want the old champion to come back and defeat the young pretender." Kauto Star The greatest Grade 1 level-weights staying chaser of his generation. 4 King George wins and a 3rd place finish last year. Back to his best at Haydock when defeating a very smart field. Again the Kauto Star debate is two-fold: 1) Has he recovered to peak condition in time for this race? 2) How much can Long Run improve from Haydock? "Paul Nicholls said that he felt Long Run had quite a hard race that day and Kauto Star had a tough race. "Whether Long Run can reproduce his excellent form of last season is another thing.We will be pressing on in the race and will expose any jumping limitations that Long Run might have. He is alovely horse and a fine champion so we have got it all to do there is no doubt." Kauto has nothing to prove apart from his well-being. As long as he comes home safely, that is enough. If he somehow produces a magnificent round of jumping and wins a 5th King George, words simply would not be able to do him justice. If he runs as well as he did at Haydock, he will go very close. Captain Chris RICHARD JOHNSON reckons CAPTAIN CHRIS has "a live chance" of beating the big guns in the William Hill King George VI Chase and he believes he would be shorter than the sponsor's 8-1 had he not come off him at the final fence in the Haldon Gold Cup. He said on Monday: "If I hadn't fallen off him at Exeter I think he'd have won, as he was staying on strongly, and if he'd gone on from there to win the Amlin Chase or the Peterborough,which he had to miss, he'd be shorter for the King George." Captain Chris ran his very best races last season at two miles, notably when winning the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham, but Johnson does not expect the seven-year-old to fail on Monday through lack of stamina. He said: "I know he's not guaranteed to get three miles but he's won a novice chase over two and a half at Kempton and I'm pretty confident he'll get it round there, as it's one of the better tracks for ground in the winter and he's a straightforward and uncomplicated horse. Apart from that blip at Exeter he's done little wrong." Master Minded World class 2 miler at his peak, and an exceptionally classy jumper when at full tilt. Twice a Champion Chase winner, he has been trained for this race now since last April. A massive player if he stays, but there will be no hiding place in this field. This will be the first time that Master Minded has raced over 3m and asked whether he thinks the dual Champion Chase winner will stay the trip Clive Smith told RacingUK: "Paul has always indicated that this was the best race for us to go for and we will try and find out if he really stays three miles. "I think he has always looked like he has stayed in races well up to two anda half and in the Aintree race, the Melling Chase, he seemed to have plenty in hand there at the finish." Somersby 'Staying on too late' and 'lacks the class to win a Grade 1' have been two very commonly associated quotes with Somersby, but this is the step up in trip he has been crying out for and he has shown a good liking for Kempton. The 2010 Arkle runner up is only turning 8 in the New Year, and he has run good races against an array of top class opposition, twice pushing Master Minded to his limit over shorter and Henrietta Knight finally gives him the extra yardage that supporters hope will see him reverse the form. âIt looks a two-horse race, but heâs [Somersby] still going to go. Iâve really very few options with him. It will probably be ghastly ground in January, so this looks the most suitable target at this stage of the season,â she explained. âHeâs a gorgeous horse,â Knight pointed out, âBut he seems to be difficult to win with. Iâve always thought he wanted three miles and this is the chance to find out. His last run [second behind Gauvin in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon] was a mystery. âHe hit a flat spot before the straight, and we could see that his tongue was lolling out the side of his mouth. Maybe that wasnât a help with his breathing.â 3rd in a Supreme Novice, 2nd in an Arkle. Will 3 miles be the making of a horse that has so often threatened to burst on the scene in a Grade 1 event? Diamond Harry The Hennessey winner is thrown into the equation and he travelled very well alongside Kauto Star for a long way that day at Haydock. He is a big price for e/w punters and should not at all be totally ruled out. "The question is will he go right-handed round Kempton as he's always gone left-handed before?" said owner,Paul Duffy. "That's not because we've avoided going the other way round. That's the way it's turned out. "We don't know the answer. He jumps straight enough, but he might prefer a galloping track like Haydock and Newbury. Kempton's a tighter track. "He'd obviously like the ground to be soft. If it is, it would suit him. The ground might be good to soft, I'd expect, but we don't know. "Ultimately if he gets placed behind horses like Kauto Star, Master Minded and Long Run, and if he finishes close up to them, then you'd say he's run well. "On the day you're second favourite at Haydock and we'd hoped he'd finish closer but on reflection Kauto Star was something else that day. "It's a dream having a horse good enough to run in races like this. Anything he does is a bonus because we are still aiming at the Gold Cup. "We still hope to go for that, but we're taking one race at a time for our old friend and let's just hope he gets around safely and does himself justice." Nacarat A grand horse who will gallop and jump boldly from the front. He is a good addition to the race as he ensures a pace, though is sure to have Diamond Harry, possibly Kauto Star, and indeed Master Minded for company on the front end. Best form gives him place squeak but this looks seriously hot. Golan Way Having won the Future Stars chase, Trainer Sheena West will now turn Golan Way's attention to the King George on December 26 as she said: "He's got an entry in the King George and it wasn't a haphazard thing, but he had to show what he could do before it and he has - we've got to go there. He jumps so well and jumped the last as well as the first. "It's great for a little yard like ours and we have to take our chance [in the King George] as we don't often get them." He is improving but would have to find an awful lot to trouble this field. One final note, and that is Merry Christmas from me and a safe race for all entrants of the 2011 King George. -TopClass
However the race is dressed up this is Kauto Star vs. Long Run. Captain Chris and Master Minded won't stay the 3 miles at this pace, Somersby and Nacarat simply aren't good enough, Golan way is the rag and Diamond Harry was well held by the 2 principals at Haydock. My money will be on Kauto Star and that won't be just sentiment. Forget his run in this last year - he is a stone better with Ruby on his back. He was never travelling for McCoy and Ruby has such a rapport with the horse that you have to say he is irreplaceable for Kauto Star. If he runs and jumps like he did at Haydock he will win - simple as that. Long Run doesn't have the speed and jumping accuracy to live with Kauto Star in that mood, and although he may come on for his run at Haydock he was soundly beaten in a race which actually plays more to his stamina than the King George does. I believe Kauto Star ran in the high 170s at Haydock and is clearly much, much better than last season. He could well put in a 180 performance here and that would take the race. As far as Long Run goes, his game is more and more about stamina BUT, unlike Denman, he does not possess the necessary jumping attributes to really go on and stretch his field. His jumping errors help horses with less stamina stay in touch, or even to go on and put him under pressure. If he were foot perfect at his fences I really think he could be "Tank II" but he loses so much momentum with those mistakes that he then becomes vulnerable to a horse with a speed finish (like KS at Haydock). I expect Ruby to go on at the end of the back straight and round the final bend. Long Run will come back at him but Kauto Star will ping the last 3, Ã la Dessie, and the race will be put to bed. That's what I hope happens, I have nothing against Long Run but I can't abide SWC after that nonsense the other day with him riding his finish a circuit too early and pretending the horse was injured.
Great article Top Class, and I for one cannot wait for the Boxing Day action this year, hopefully the forecast will be correct, and we can get a full quota of racing in this year. I will be attending at Wetherby on Boxing day after having 2 years down at Kempton, and will be watching the TV as much as the track in front of me I think! Having said that the Rowland Meyrick chase looks a good race this year, with Wayward Prince, Midnight Chase, Sarando and Master of the Hall to name but a few interesting runners. Anyway back to the big race of the day and I will be willing Kauto Star to prove the doubters wrong once again, but as you say Topclass, as long as he comes back safe and sound I don't really care, he has nothing to prove and lets face it, we'll never see another Kauto. Head over heart may be the phrase of the day, and I do feel Long Run will improve for the Haydock run, but did fitness necessarily have anything to do with how he jumped the two he clouted in the back straight? Kauto is a totally different prospect when he starts pinging fences, and I seriously think that if he gets into a rhythm, there is no horse in the race that will beat him in the jumping department. It then just depends whether Long Run jumps well enough to stay with him, because if he does, I believe this time that he will have the legs to go past in the home straight. Having said that though I don't think it will be the two horse race people have it down to be, and the running of the race will reflect this IMO, as Diamond Harry, Captain Chris and Master Minded will all have their moments, but Paul Nicholls seems to have to got the sparkle back into the champs eye, and I think the one that beats Kauto will be the winner.
I feel that this should be a two horse race. As you say, Kauto is entitled to improve from his last King George but Long Run is entitled to improve for his run at Haydock. I, too, not only want but also believe Kauto wins this. Cheltenham, I fear, will be a different matter but for my money Kauto get's one more day in the spotlight - nothing less than he deserves!
Great article as always toppy! I think and will be punting on Long Run to win as I always have and will do, but would love to see Diamond Harry win (although I dont think he will.) He is deifenately a great e/w shout, as he has proven stamina unlike most of the field but reckon if the top 2 come to the race in form they will be too good for him! But I think age will have got to Kauto where as long run needed the race and Haydock and will be all the better for it!
Great article TC and excellent thread. Nothing would make my Christmas more than to see Kauto in the same form as at Haydock. Hopefully all horses will come home safely; that's the main thing for me.
Even Clive Smith seems to have bought into the Melling Chase hype with Master Minded. That race was run on officially GOOD (GOOD-SOFT in places) ground yet was 9.5 seconds slower than standard. 9.5 seconds is a hell of a lot - it took Master Minded about 11 seconds to cover the ground between the 3rd last and 2nd last, and about 13 seconds from the last fence to the finish line. 9.5 seconds above standard in a race like that means it was run at a crawl and to draw the conclusion that he will stay 3 miles based on that is fanciful to say the least. Especially against proven, top class, Grade-1-winning staying chasers.
The Topham is run over the National course Ron (National fences), the Melling on the Mildmay course (standard fences)
Brilliant write-up TopClass...thanks...it's much appreciated as I don't have so much time to keep up with racing, these days. I still think Kauto will win.....it's written in the stars. It's going to be a fascinating and thrilling race. As has been said before, the only thing that really matters is they all come home safely. What time does the race start btw? I have to leave for work at 5.00pm that day.....if Kauto does win I'll need time to scrape myself off the ceiling!
If kauto doesnt turn up, imo he will be the only one to go up agaisnt Long Run come the post, but he will have to much. It will be a hard, slog of a match and the majority of the others arnt really over proven 3m. Ill probably go for a Long Run Win and LR and DH forecast.(dependant on the ground for the forecast) I just think it will be too much for Kauto {here come the pelters lol} would love to see him win!!, I dont mind losing to see him win, just like at haydock I cheered when he won even though I backed Long Run. but just dont think it will happen!!
Long Run as it all to do IMO. It wouldn't be the first time the previous years Cheltenham Gold Cup hasn't fired the year after, His jumping is still hopeless for Me its his stamina that pulls him through. Last year Kauto was clearly not finishing his races he look rejuvinated at Haydock and if he turns up in that form he will have a great chance. Like I said in a previous post Im fancying MASTER MINDED, Will like the ground (Good to soft, Good in places) stays 2 and half very well and will like the course, Proven winner going right handed and its a fast track. Never write him off... Long Run at 6/4 doesn't leave much room for error, It would have to be near much perfect and with some unknown types in the race over the distance Im not willing to write the likes of Master Minded, Captain Chris off who are very classy horses. Then theres Kauto Star the rejuvinated racing legend with an impeccable record at Kempton. Its a far hotter renewal and I don't see Long Run getting all is own way again. Just my opinion
Great write up. I've always said this race will suit Captain Chris and I'm not deserting him now at 8s. Got to say, if Kauto triumphs there won't be a dry eye in the house, and I'd love to see Clive Smith say that's his lot and retire at the very top
I don't see it myself. The argument, with significant factual support, is that he is best fresh. He was put in his place in the Betfair Chase and the notion that he will now 'come on for the run' seems fanciful to say the least in my book. There is also the right handed question to consider. Plus I think he is better suited to a galloping track, making Kempton's tightish turns far from ideal. I do not think it impossible that he might sneak a place but with so many question marks I would most certainly not be backing him.
