hi all, hope it's ok to ask this is a new thread.. two questions: supposing you have a 12 runner handicap race and your horse is 4/1, so your each way bet would be 1/1 if it places. if one horse drops out and there's only 11, does that mean for betting purposes it turns into an 8+ runner field with fifth odds for each way bets? therefore, you'd have to change your horse at the last minute to get one that won't make a loss if it places? secondly, if you have a field of 12 but most are 10-7, presumably that's an 8+ runners fifth odds for each way bet, and not quarter odds because it's not a handicap? i'm sure there was one of these today. i know i'm a bit of a novice compared to members on here (a studious one though ), but it bothers me, these betting pitfalls, because i don't look at the odds when i pick a horse the day before, and then despite getting a few wins and a bunch of places (7 won / 13 placed today), it wouldn't have made much money in reality. that must be what you mean by beat the bookies. i think i'll do an experiment - pick my horses, check the odds, and then re-pick them. see what happens.. anyway, if anyone can help with the questions above it's appreciated
Place odds used to be straightforward Petito but not anymore. Generally on handicaps, the following applies: 1-4 runner pays win only 5-7 runners pays 1-2 8-15 runners pays 1-2-3 16+ runners pays 1-2-3-4 Each bookie has their own place quotes, with more and more going 1/4 odds on all races (as opposed to just handicaps) - oddschecker is your best guide
thanks oddy, i did know that number of places bit, but not that most is a quarter now. so a fifth of the odds is a dying art? that would make things easier because it makes it hard work and i was puzzled why they did that anyway. except of course to make it even harder to make money. i'm checking oddschecker for my horses tomorrow. i often can't because it's too late and they all say SP. my shifts are all wrong and you have to be up early for this racing don't you. i can't even tell if i've got a non runner until i watch the replay
ok, so thanks to oddy i've worked out some for tomorrow assuming a quarter odds is generally what you get for EW bets.. there's no daily thread yet so i'll put it here. i just want to know if i do better or worse looking at the odds. i can do this at home but since i asked here about betting figures i'll put the thing here.. assume £5 each way or £10 win. before looking at the odds, all EW (i've added the odds in after, betfair's unsimple figures) i had: 12:50 ASC reste gosse 10/1 ; compton blue 22/1 1:25 ASC rolling aces 27/5 ; ballypatrick 19/1 1:40 WET brady 6/1 ; our island 27/10 2:00 ASC my tent or yours 24/19 ; taquin du seuil 40/17 2:25 DOW (jnwine) sizing europe 39/19 ; quito de la roque 18/5 2:35 ASC cape express 42/5 ; raya star 19/2 2:50 WET smad place 33/19 ; tidal bay 27/5 3:10 ASC ace high 5/1 ; duke of lucca 44/5 3:25 WET (charlie hall) silviniaco conti 39/29 ; time for rupert 22/5 3:45 ASC pepite rose 42/5 ; lidar 13/1 after looking at the odds (betfair again): 12:50 ASC reste gosse 10/1 EW ; compton blue 22/1 EW [same] 1:25 ASC rolling aces 27/5 EW ; ballypatrick 19/1 EW [same] 1:40 WET our island 27/10 WIN ; micromission 23/5 EW [had to remove brady because two horses can't place] 2:00 ASC my tent or yours 24/19 WIN ;ubak 44/5 EW 2:25 DWR (jnwine) quito de la roque 18/5 WIN ; first lieutenant 43/5 EW [first lieutenant added in because i couldn't put SE each way] 2:35 ASC cape express 42/5 EW ; raya star 19/2 EW [same] 2:50 WET tidal bay 27/5 EW ; smad place 33/19 WIN [same] 3:10 ASC ace high 5/1 EW ; duke of lucca 44/5 EW [same] 3:25 WET (charlie hall) time for rupert 22/5 EW ; silviniaco conti 39/29 WIN [had to remove planet of sound because two horses can't place] 3:45 ASC pepite rose 42/5 EW ; lidar 13/1 EW [same] that looks like a disaster but we'll see. i really hate having to change my horses because of the figures but that's the name of the game. i'd rather have two place horses and/or a win but taking the odds into consideration that looks foolish for a 7 runner race. now i've put my neck on the block i need some bombay mix and a beer. happy guy fawkes all
probably no one's interested in my experiment but me, but i learnt two things doing it: 1. not to change my horses depending on the odds. i'll carry on picking horses ignoring the odds but leave them exactly as i picked even after looking at the odds. 2. if a horse's odds are unfavourable for each way betting, leave the horse out altogether and don't swap another one in. oh, and 3. the little collection above would have made £39.42 proft modest, but it'll do start of season. if i'd followed my rules above (i didn't in two races) the profit would have been £61.92, i.e. almost a third again which i'd be happy with. i still haven't figured out the quarter/fifth odds for each way thing. according to oddschecker it is a fifth if you've got 8+ runners. none of the bookies had a quarter. unless the place only market is different? anyway, back to my cave..