12 runner H'c with non runner betting question

hi all, hope it's ok to ask this is a new thread.. two questions:

supposing you have a 12 runner handicap race and your horse is 4/1, so your each way bet would be 1/1 if it places. if one horse drops out and there's only 11, does that mean for betting purposes it turns into an 8+ runner field with fifth odds for each way bets? therefore, you'd have to change your horse at the last minute to get one that won't make a loss if it places?

secondly, if you have a field of 12 but most are 10-7, presumably that's an 8+ runners fifth odds for each way bet, and not quarter odds because it's not a handicap? i'm sure there was one of these today.

i know i'm a bit of a novice compared to members on here (a studious one though ), but it bothers me, these betting pitfalls, because i don't look at the odds when i pick a horse the day before, and then despite getting a few wins and a bunch of places (7 won / 13 placed today), it wouldn't have made much money in reality. that must be what you mean by beat the bookies. i think i'll do an experiment - pick my horses, check the odds, and then re-pick them. see what happens..

anyway, if anyone can help with the questions above it's appreciated

 

thanks oddy, i did know that number of places bit, but not that most is a quarter now. so a fifth of the odds is a dying art? that would make things easier because it makes it hard work and i was puzzled why they did that anyway. except of course to make it even harder to make money.

i'm checking oddschecker for my horses tomorrow. i often can't because it's too late and they all say SP. my shifts are all wrong and you have to be up early for this racing don't you. i can't even tell if i've got a non runner until i watch the replay

 

ok, so thanks to oddy i've worked out some for tomorrow assuming a quarter odds is generally what you get for EW bets.. there's no daily thread yet so i'll put it here. i just want to know if i do better or worse looking at the odds. i can do this at home but since i asked here about betting figures i'll put the thing here.. assume £5 each way or £10 win.

before looking at the odds, all EW (i've added the odds in after, betfair's unsimple figures) i had:

12:50 ASC reste gosse 10/1 ; compton blue 22/1

1:25 ASC rolling aces 27/5 ; ballypatrick 19/1

1:40 WET brady 6/1 ; our island 27/10

2:00 ASC my tent or yours 24/19 ; taquin du seuil 40/17

2:25 DOW (jnwine) sizing europe 39/19 ; quito de la roque 18/5

2:35 ASC cape express 42/5 ; raya star 19/2

2:50 WET smad place 33/19 ; tidal bay 27/5

3:10 ASC ace high 5/1 ; duke of lucca 44/5

3:25 WET (charlie hall) silviniaco conti 39/29 ; time for rupert 22/5

3:45 ASC pepite rose 42/5 ; lidar 13/1

after looking at the odds (betfair again):

12:50 ASC reste gosse 10/1 EW ; compton blue 22/1 EW [same]

1:25 ASC rolling aces 27/5 EW ; ballypatrick 19/1 EW [same]

1:40 WET our island 27/10 WIN ; micromission 23/5 EW [had to remove brady because two horses can't place]

2:00 ASC my tent or yours 24/19 WIN ;ubak 44/5 EW

2:25 DWR (jnwine) quito de la roque 18/5 WIN ; first lieutenant 43/5 EW [first lieutenant added in because i couldn't put SE each way]

2:35 ASC cape express 42/5 EW ; raya star 19/2 EW [same]

2:50 WET tidal bay 27/5 EW ; smad place 33/19 WIN [same]

3:10 ASC ace high 5/1 EW ; duke of lucca 44/5 EW [same]

3:25 WET (charlie hall) time for rupert 22/5 EW ; silviniaco conti 39/29 WIN [had to remove planet of sound because two horses can't place]

3:45 ASC pepite rose 42/5 EW ; lidar 13/1 EW [same]

that looks like a disaster but we'll see. i really hate having to change my horses because of the figures but that's the name of the game. i'd rather have two place horses and/or a win but taking the odds into consideration that looks foolish for a 7 runner race.

now i've put my neck on the block i need some bombay mix and a beer. happy guy fawkes all

 

probably no one's interested in my experiment but me, but i learnt two things doing it:

1. not to change my horses depending on the odds. i'll carry on picking horses ignoring the odds but leave them exactly as i picked even after looking at the odds.

2. if a horse's odds are unfavourable for each way betting, leave the horse out altogether and don't swap another one in.

oh, and 3. the little collection above would have made £39.42 proft modest, but it'll do start of season. if i'd followed my rules above (i didn't in two races) the profit would have been £61.92, i.e. almost a third again which i'd be happy with.

i still haven't figured out the quarter/fifth odds for each way thing. according to oddschecker it is a fifth if you've got 8+ runners. none of the bookies had a quarter. unless the place only market is different?

anyway, back to my cave..