a) The undemocratic argument This is the most ludicrous parroted argument I can think of. I assume people do realise the irony of Britain calling the EU undemocratic right? It's like Hitler calling Thatcher a fascist. Every part of the EU is elected either directly by people voting for them or indirectly by people we voted for voting for them. Hands up who voted for ANY of the current government (37% of the country), House of Lords (entirely unelected) or Monarch (pretty sure also unelected). We've got one of the fakest 'democracies' in the western world. If you want to vote against the EU by all means do it but the idea we don't like it because it's undemocratic is simply laughable. My degree was in Law and an essential part of that is EU Law (one of the 7 bits you have to do) and I now teach Law (a part of which is British constitutional law) and I can assure you that I and almost every other impartial person who has studied, or simply read, anything about these areas will tell you that the UK is far less democratic than the EU. Not even a close contest. Indeed it is one of the genuine problems the EU has - too many voices due to too much accountability which comes from being more democratic. b) The money argument The £180ish million per week we pay out - if we follow a similar path to Norway then we'll have to pay around 80-100m to be part of the common market. As a percentage of spending on things like the NHS or Education it's miniscule. It is a saving we could make but it's negligible (look at the actual figures we spend, I'll find a pie chart if you want). c) The experts I love how everyone who is for leaving is just disregarding all the qualified professionals whose job it is to predict likely outcomes (and I really do pretty much mean ALL of them) and instead listening to the newspapers. It's like the smoker whose doctor says if you don't give up you'll get cancer and argues "yeah but I know someone who is 100 and has smoked 10 a day so doctors know nothing". Uh huh.
Nah mate, he believes in letting people keep their money and giving to charity if they want to. So I suggest quitting your job now and opening a Victorian style workhouse. You'll make a fortune.
Cracking idea. I could start to manufacture flags that have a union jack on 'our' side and "KEEP OUT - BUT TRADE WITH US!" on the other. Should sell shed loads.
This has the feeling of 12 Angry Men. I'm not undecided but I'm open to persuasion. Currently inclined to vote out. Reason: Uncontrolled immigration. Last year it was accepted that in the region of 330,000 people more came into this country than went out. Also accepted that net migration figures have increased substantially since 2004. I do know the 330,000 includes both EU and non EU migrants which are almost 50:50 with slightly more non EU than Eu. I am also aware that migrants have a positive effect on tax revenues. There is also the arguement that the numbers of migrants has the effect of keeping wages low. This Government has also failed miserably on controlling non EU migrants. Cameron in one TV debate said it was "hard". Disregarding any new countries joining the EU (I'm not worried about the effect of Turkey joining as I can't see this happening for a long time) if the current figures continued and my impression is that the Government haven't actually grasped the extent of this issue then this countries infrastructure will collapse under the numbers in relatively short time. Even if the immigration figures were just EU members (which won't be the case anyway) then albeit it will take longer again the services like Schools and the NHS will collapse as they can't accommodate the numbers coming in. I would add that I have not seen anything which argues the numbers won't continue at the same rate particularly from EU migrants if free movement continues. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections From above The UK population is projected to increase by 9.7 million over the next 25 years from an estimated 64.6 million in mid-2014 to 74.3 million in mid-2039 The UK population is projected to reach 70 million by mid-2027 Assumed net migration accounts for 51% of the projected increase over the next 25 years, with natural increase (more births than deaths) accounting for the remaining 49% of growth We already are one of the most densely populated countries in the EU, significantly more so than the likes of France and Germany. We cannot sustain the growth in population without it having a severe adverse affect on key services as these figures would be in addition to the natural growth in population which. To remain in means to have no control. To leave gives us the ability to control the numbers. Note it gives us the ability. We still have to do something about it as my view is the same with regard to non EU immigrants but at least we would have the chance to do something as opposed to being subject to 27 other countries views most of which would benefit from free movement. And this is one area where we do not have a veto. Also we do not have to have free movement a la Norway on trade agreements that is a negotiable point. And it is in the Eu's interests to trade with us as where else will they sell the amount of products and services this country buys. We buy £288 billion goods and services from the EU with a nett figure of £61 billion more being bought by us than sold. I accept there will be an adverse affect on the economy in the short term and no-one knows how bad bad will be. But I am prepared to go through that because the other option, free movement, provides a ticking time bomb which won't go away and better to do something now rather than leave it for my children and my children's children. I'm open to anyone's comments or points they wish to make. I have tried to think this through carefully but I haven't seen anyone on the remain camp address the above specific points. Ultimately, my stance is that I'd rather face the storm sooner rather than later.
Lots of well articulated arguments here chaps on both sides so fair play to one and all. No one's left, offered fights, or to bare their ungodly arses in Fenwicks. When I get back to the UK the decision will have been made by the populous so whichever decision is prevalent I think/hope that change in some form will be prevalent.
Did you see my post re: scientific research? Its hard to overstate how important that is to the long term health of an economy (http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn12.pdf) and the EU is of great importance in funding our world class research. If we leave, the long term impact on our jobs and well being could be very grim indeed. Immigration is less clear cut; I can see the merits of the argument above, but others have also convincingly argued the overall economic benefit of immigration (especially with the benefit curbs recently successfully defended in the European courts). So while it's important, I'd encourage you to take other aspects into consideration also.
The thinking of rich countries needs to be how do we help these poorer countries prosper, because ultimately if we don't we are all fecked. The narrow-minded me, me, me mentality will hold everyone back.
Turkeys voting for Christmas mate. Appropriate given your avatar. I think the thing that annoys me the most in all this is people telling the public how terrible everything is. It happens a lot in politics. For example, when is the NHS ever not in 'crisis'? Look, there's plenty of things that can be improved on in the NHS but ffs it's an amazing organisation which on the whole operates very well. Politicians and media whip up people's views to make people think they've got it bad and it's been done on immigration and the EU to nauseating levels. The trouble is a lot of people don't question it and start looking for someone to blame. Politicians like Farage have had a field day manipulating the mentally malleable on this issue.
Anyone else watching the "Great Debate" on BBC 1 and cringing at the poor level of debate by both sides and the simple points scoring against each other, again by both sides. This isn't really helping at all.
Is it fair to assume that some of the poorer countries in the EU will slowly get richer over the years? I think it is, and when they do the immigration will ease off surely? They don't come here for the cold weather and bad food. They are coming because they can earn more here, but you look at the Poles, a lot of them went back as their economy improved. I take people's point on this issue though; there is no guarantee on numbers but the prosperity of the country outweighs any concerns on numbers for me. With the new deal on EU citizens not being able to claim benefits then surely many would return when we fill all the jobs? Don't forget the other argument on this about bringing people in to pay for the burden of the increasing average age of the UK's population. I'd far rather we focused on reducing non-EU immigration because we get nothing back from them and I doubt they contribute to our economy like EU citizens have done. The import/export numbers need to be taken in the context of a percentage of the respective economies of the UK and the EU when considering negotiating new trade deals. Our exports are a lot bigger share of the UK economy than of the EU's of theirs so in terms of negotiations we will most certainly not have the upper hand. Do they want access to a market of 62m people (less if and when the UK breaks apart) or do we want access to a market of c.440m? If we want free trade we will almost certainly have to have free movement of labour and still pay into the EU like Norway but it's unlikely we would go for that given the Leave voters' stance on immigration. So where will that leave us?
Main bit of info you need to know on immigration is that: a) If we want to still be part of the economic market we will have to agree to freedom of movement anyway. If we refuse it is hard to imagine we will be able to access the common market (Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein and all others who are in the EEA need to agree to the 4 freedoms - goods, services, persons and capital). So if we really want to remove the EU immigration then we have to not join the european economic area at all (which no person has realistically suggest as a solution) and that would be voluntarily accepting a stupidly massive hit to our economy. In case you weren't aware the economy took a bigger financial hit in 4 days this week just due to worries about a Brexit which may or may not happen than the amount of money we pay into the EU each year. Bit of perspective there. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...rds-6000-and-pound-falls-as-brexit-fears-dri/ If we leave I have every reason to believe we are honestly ****ing ourselves in the arse for the sake of 'nationalism' (ahem racism/ xenophobia/ isolationism) b) where did you get this from? I can accept some of it but "with natural increase (more births than deaths) accounting for the remaining 49% of growth" over the next 25 years - i don't buy it. Birth rate is dropping and is currently at 1.9 per couple (ie shrinking population) and is expected to fall further (it is 1.4 in Germany and 1.3 in Italy - hence having a more active role in wanting immigrant i guess) - the only reason why it isn't shrinking already is advanced medical care but you think of all the baby boomers in their 70's now there's a 'top heavy' age demographic and with shrinking birth rates unless life expectancy hit's 90-100 mark in the next 25 years I can't see our natural population rising. You then have the MASSIVE issue that the natural population growth is not in the lower age brackets but simply due to people living longer. Economically that is a nightmare and unsustainable, my guess is that people my age (34) will have to work into our 70's and pensions as they have been in the past few decades are things you read about in - whatever the hell they read with in the future. Without working populations coming in there'll be no way of keeping the country going. Very iffy ground with lots of supposition but I think we can all accept that once the average birthrate drops below 2 then unless we're all going to live forever the population is sooner or later going to shrink. I'm voting remain precisely because I am worried about what my children will have left for them - they're 5, 3 and "minus about 3 months".
Whatever the result, is anyone not going to be relieved when this campaign is all over with? Getting tired with it all now.
The stats are from the Office for National Statistics, ie from the Government. I've tried to stay away from web sites who have agendas. We do have an aging population and that naturally will put more pressure on the NHS but 40 now isn't the same as 40 when I was say 18. Problem is 85 years and upwards didn't really exist to any great extent when I was 18. My "out" stance doesn't mean I'm against immigration but the numbers and the abilities of those coming in need to be controlled. It's the total lack of control which worries me though I do accept that this Government hasn't exactly shone on the part they can control in any event. Still I have masses of time before I have to decide...
Fair play, I'll have a look. It feels counter-intuitive that the natural population will still be rising in 25 years time, there is clearly going to be a date when it starts dropping (due to birth rate) and I would expect it to have been sooner than that. Doesn't change the fact that once the birth rate drops below 2 the only reason the population doesn't drop is that people aren't dying when they used to - it's like a Ponzi (pyramid) scheme, works fine so long as you have people beneath you in the system. Once you don't there's nothing left to work with, no money in the pot. It's a national disgrace how pensions have been handled, people were so complacent about money coming in to pay for current pensions rather than making sure the money being paid in at the time was enough of an investment to cover the pension people were going to need - newsflash, it wasn't. My point is just that without any immigration of working age people we will pretty transparently be stuffed in a generation or two. As regards EU immigration it isn't enough to leave the EU, we would also have to not join the EEA afterwards. No politician would suggest not joining the EEA as it would cripple our economy (the economic forecasts which have been doom and gloom anyway have all assumed we will work outa deal to trade in the European market). If we do join the EEA (and we will, it would be economic suicide not to) then we have to accept EU immigration anyway. The entire thing is a sideshow. The entirety of the campaigns and issues. Murdoch wants to leave as it gives the newspapers more power and influence and allows him to make more money and pay less tax (a reasonable amount of this he has freely admitted). Johnson has said as recently as February that it would be economically very bad for us to leave and it shouldn't be considered but changed his mind - why? Johnson, Gove, IDS, Farage - is it just a coincidence that they are ALL political opportunists which no reasonable person would trust with anything. 75% of them have advocated privatisation of the NHS - all that garbage about protecting it if you vote Brexit - you honestly think they give a single **** about the average Brit? It is the only thing I can think of right now that annoys me, they have seen an opportunity to further their political careers and they have lied flagrantly about pretty much everything - and been pulled up on most of it. Deep down I think they're going to win as well. Fuming.
I've not mentioned that on here but it's been on my mind and I totally agree. Not only would we commit economic suicide voting to leave, we'd also most likely replace moderate Tories with a bunch of self-serving hard line right wingers who would screw the little people even further. I just can't fathom that there are so many people willing to throw away so much just because there are a couple of Polski Skleps in their neighbourhood.
That country on the other side of the world being one of those referred to by Winston Churchill in his great speech " We will fight them on the beaches " read it and bow your head
