As I had nothing else to do I thought I would calculate Squire's (theoretical) chance of winning the Cambridgeshire this year. I have to stress theoretical to protect myself against the obvious and justifiable comments that may follow. It's just a bit of fun to see how things worked out. Basis. 1. Squire's only race over 9f at Newmarket 2. Last year's winning time 3. 1 second = 6 lengths 4. Over 9-10f on good ground 1 length = 1.75lbs Squire's race was completed in 1m 52.86s Beaten 1.25l Squire's adjusted time = 1m 53.07 carrying 9.6 Last year's Cambridgeshire time was 1m 50.11 So to have won last year's Cambridgeshire, Squire would need to improve about 3 secs on his Newmarket run (ie 18l). That equates to about 31lbs, meaning he would need to get in on 7.3. If he gets in on 8.0 he will need to improve by 11lb or approx 6l on his Newmarket run
It's never even won a race higher than a class 5, it's a pretty average horse tbh and will be lucky to win a class 3 let en knone the ****ing cambridgeshire
Why is that Bob? I'm hopeful he can run a great race in the Cambridgeshire, if he gets in, and I've made that clear before now. He probably is that much better, or will be by September. Stick knows that is the last thing I would want to do and I'm sure he won't read it that way. Chelsea's comment is uncalled for though. I find that somewhat distasteful and wasn't expecting such comments. I'll remove the thread if it's going to have the effect you suggest Bob. Not only that, I'll chop off my bloody fingers as punishment. ****
The going for Squire's race was good, good to soft in places whereas the going the next day (Cambridgeshire day) was simply Good. So times would have been slightly faster for the big one.
If he wins the Cambridgeshire at 50/1 I am sure Chelsea aka Cyndi Lauper will come on with the usual "I had thirty pounds to win on him" quote.
I hope he gets in the Cambridgeshire with a decent weight and runs a great race stick. As I said before, if he does get in, I might well get over to see him
If he gets there, gets in etc and you come over then I would be delighted to take you as my guest for the day mate. Got to have a dream.
Don't you worry Ron it is a decent post and I admire your maths if nothing else as I can never work out those if 4 secs is worth 8 lengths on soft ground if Moore is riding and double if Spencer is riding equations - and to be fair Chelsea is only offering a perfectly reasonable assessment of the horse however untactfully and unkindly. There are probably not many race watchers who would look at Squires form and think there is a Cambridgeshire contender in the making. However what we do have is a horse that has proven much better than most small share investors could hope to unearth, one who I am sure some thought would never see a race track again after getting injured and races in a way which leads you to believe there might just be a little more to come. I have no doubt Stick and Don have realistic expectations regarding Squire and the Cambridgeshire but at the same time you have got to have that dream, so that when your head is on the pillow at night you get to spend a little time in the what could be room before nodding off. This is the same for all racehorse owners from top to bottom, whatever you have got at present, a part of you wonders where you could end up. The reason that Chelsea's remarks are a little unkind even if reasonable from a form point of view is that also Stick and Don are our own and so we are not offering a critique of some Hamdan horse, they also very happily and kindly keep us all updated on Squire meaning we get to enjoy the added interest when he runs and hopefully, as many would have done last year, win a couple quid. Now in truth Squire will likely win a grade 4 race and possibly place in a couple of grade 3 races this season and the Cambridgeshire winner in waiting is likely sitting somewhere in John Gosden's yard, working like a listed of group horse and having a light season plotted to protect a mark so he can lift the prize come October, but this was also the case when 5 years ago Prince of Johanne won for Tom Tate at 40-1 or just over a decade ago when Spanish Don won at 100-1 for David Elsworth - so you never quite know in this game where you will end up, and If I or I am sure Chelsea were an owner, even should we have just a slight chink of hope in the back of our mind, we would not be spending it on a dream of Catterick or Bath.
Obviously everyone's opinion is something they're entitled to so I'm not going to come on and argue with you. The horse might not be up to winning a race like this and having watched it run and seen the form you might be right in saying it. But personally i find it fascinating the insight and honesty that both Stick and Don give us on this forum every time the horse runs both before and after its races. I think I've backed it most times its run since Stick first posted about him. I've also backed winners in races against him. At times I've thought the horse has looked average, at times I've thought it's been unlucky in running and at times I've thought it's got improvement in him. What I will say is that I make my own mind up about backing him when he runs and that I think we're lucky that Stick and Don are so willing to share their thoughts with us. It's a rare insight into betting on a horse that joe public aren't usually privy to. There's somewhat of a stigma to racing at times that it's a 'bent' sport and at the very least what we get with Squire thanks to Stick and Don is confidence that our money is going on a genuine horse, genuinely running and genuinely trying to win Sorry if I've rambled on a bit, I usually like Chelsea's posts but felt I had to give my opinion when I saw this one.
I wasn't having a go Ron. Just a bad joke. Having to improve by 11 lbs is a fair old effort. That was all I was getting at.
Fair enough Bob but many horses have improved by more. Some of Squire's runs have been at the wrong distance and/or wrong surface and/or wrong tactics and/or wrong jockey so I don't read too much into some of the form. He only had 1 race as a 2yo due to injury and, although down the field. was well fancied at 7/2 to turn over Kingman 11/4. He actually ran 14 times in 11 months between Nov 14 and Oct 15. No way could he be 100% his best in all those races. With a more focused schedule I'm sure he could outrun his earlier form. Decent pedigree too. Class.
Ron, time is irrelevant, the two races were completely different and can't be compared on a flat time basis. Now if you had sectional times, you could cross reference pace and speed, and that would be a fascinating analysis. Stick et al, what mark do you think he needs to get into the race?
11lb. improvement is a lot to ask for but the distance and track for this big handicap are both perfect for Squire. Going should be OK too. Hope he gets in and runs a race that proves the doubters wrong. (You know, I like to use smileys, that's no secret, but this lawyer fellah's got me beat............).
More interesting perhaps are marks horses have won off after winning that race - Bronze Angel - 6lb higher Educate - not won since Prince Of Johanne- 9lbs higher Credit Swap - no win and probably best marker of a weak year - won over hurdles Progressive horses or horses who feature in classy races in general... But Credit Swap shows that it's not an impossible dream with a handicapper
Very interesting conversation, for me there are some positives. Squire seems to be suited by the course he's well bred and from what I've seen should run between 8 and 10 furlongs he might get 12. As far as improvement is concerned you see it happen all the time. It's all about where the horse is placed by owners/trainer. He seems very genuine and this could be his downfall, but good luck lads I hope you have a great summer with.
.........and former triple bumper winner (1989), Mellottie, won it in 1991, and probably should have won it too in 1990 when, carrying just 7-11 the jockey, John Lowe, made a bollox of it all and got outwitted by Steve Cauthen on Risen Moon (8-9). However, John Lowe did make up for it the following year, this time Mellottie carried 9-1. He then performed admirably in the Cambridgeshire several times after 1991. This fine racehorse ended his career with a flourish over 10f at Pontefract in 1996.
I would be intreguid to know how many horses you have owned or been part of a syndicate for Chelsea? If so perhaps you can share them so we can analyse their efforts. I'm pretty sure most wont be as good value as the £3.5k we paid for Squire, especially given he made over £21k prizemoney last year. I would also be intruiged to find where we have in any way touted him as a 'super star'. He is a star in our eyes and we love him dearly. It appears others on here also have more than a soft spot for him but in no way have we ever over hyped him. We dont realistically think he will win the Cambridgeshire, only a madman would at this stage but we have a dream and thats what makes race horse ownership so rewarding. Agree with Nass, looking at sectionals to see whether the races were any way comparable would be the starting point and draw any conclusions from there.
