I really disliked Don Poli in the Gold Cup three weeks ago and i've made that point ad infinitum on here but on rain softened ground against Cue Card and Djakadam i think he's got an incredibly solid chance of finishing in the first three and would not be at all surprised if he were to win. Cue Card's fall lto was very heavy and although he's a very classy horse he may be feeling the effects of that. Having never fallen in a race to my knowledge we don't have any evidence to establish how he reacts to it. At a skinny price i'd be looking to take him on anyway but that really does add fuel to the fire. Djakadam had a very hard race at Cheltenham on ground he doesn't act on. It may have left a mark. Conversely, Don Poli didn't have a race last time out after one of the worst displays of jockeyship on the big stage i've ever seen from Davy Russell. He needs ground like this (or softer) to let himself down and this race is often a tough old affair. With Djakadam likely to make this a true test, i can't have him out of the frame and think he's in with a fair shout.
Altho I love Don Poli and the ground will help him I just think things will be a little to quick for him still- Cue card did not have a race at Cheltenham, yes we don't know what the fall took out of him but he was hard on the bridle for the part he was in it ! If the fall hasn't taken it out of him he is going in to this race a fresh horse! The ground won't be an issue for him and on a flat track like Aintree he will get the trip no problem!!
I think Croco Bay has a good chance in the 4.40 today, looks nicely handicapped on last years form and then ran in hot races to get the mark back down before falling early at Cheltenham.
I like the chances of Houblon Des Obeaux at 40/1 with the ground turning soft. I know he has a bit to find with the best of these on bare form but he loves it when the mud is flying and he absolutely sluiced up at Newbury last time. Keeps the cheek pieces on and didn't go to Cheltenham so comes here fresh.
Another question Which horse had seconditis by finishing runner-up in the Christmas Hurdle,Champion Hurdle,Aintree Hurdle, and Punchestown Champion Hurdle all in the same season?
Southwell 300 my time returns to southwell after running further lto , Havlin rebooked for this with no surprise having stayed on well to win over track and distance . Today sees them 1lb lighter with odds of 11s looking to big . Ew 335 ruler of the nile around 13/2 415 rainbow lad 10/3 450 sartori 7/2 525 fortinbrass 11/4
Skybet have boosted (via Oddschecker) Ruby Walsh to ride a double over the 3 days from Evens to 13/8. Looks an absolute steal!!!!!!!
Limerick 2.35-Tommy Stack saddles No Woman No Kry who should go close 9/2 4.20-Pat Martin yard think No Way Jack will run well in 4.20
One that I will be on again today is SURF AND TURF. Put this up last year because at the time he had very good form at Aintree but seemingly nowhere else. Won at 40's for me along with the tricast which paid out a massive near £9000 payout. Obviously I didn't win that much however I did still win a 4 figure payout. Won this race last year and again seemingly unfancied around 33/1. Runs in the 4.40
