The Endgame

Braveheart said:

Whilst I was concerned at the loss of Tettey, AN appears to have changed tactics slightly and we appear to be defending as a team - long may it last!!!!

Click to expand...

I've always felt that Redmond can be a great player going forward, but that he can also be a liability when the ball is lost. This was highlighted on MotD when he and Pinto stood looking at each other as Ulloa had complete freedom to slot in Leicester's winner. Our shape is much more solid with Brady and Jarvis on the flanks.

RiverEndRick said:

I know what you mean, Thurnby, but I don't think it's like that. Injuries are a part of the game and the season as a whole. I shouldn't think Newcastle or Sunderland shed any tears when we lost Tettey and Redmond. Really cruel for them that it happened in an international friendly though.

Click to expand...

I do agree with that point Rick, it is just a bad frame of mind to dwell on from our point of view. That was what I was trying to say.

Interesting stats that Newcastle has lost all of their last 6 away games, scoring only twice and conceding 13. City have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 6 home games, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Bookies: Home win 48%, Draw 26%, Away win: 26%.

Any team on such a dire run would usually love Norwich to be their next oponent, we have a very infuriating habit of helping teams and players out of horror runs, lets hope Saturday will be different!

Bah!

We were also on a horrendous away run when we went to West Brom. We all know how that turned out.

I simply cannot call this one. The context of the game game means is could go any number of ways depending on the frame of mind the players are in.

chinacanary said:

Surely they cannot be any more fired up - the context, the reverse fixture, the club bringing back Holt to tell us all the same...

Click to expand...

You'd certainly hope so, but it's going to be a very tight, nervous game, methinks. Newcastle's defensive problems and 3rd choice keeper must have some impact on their confidence though.

http://www.themag.co.uk/2016/04/goo...ries-defence-norwich-match-newcastle-united/?

chinacanary said:

Surely they cannot be any more fired up - the context, the reverse fixture, the club bringing back Holt to tell us all the same...

Click to expand...

Fired up, but does that manifest itself as nerves or confidence? We're capable of getting a result, but equally Newcastle have players that can hurt you if you switch off. And of course we need lady luck on our side too.

Good news on the injury front with both Naismith and Bennett fit and Nathan could even feature!

http://www.pinkun.com/norwich-city/...beat_nathan_redmond_injury_bulletin_1_4479894

chinacanary said:

on their choice of keepers: "Benítez will have to make do with either Darlow or Freddie Woodman, who celebrated his 19th birthday a few weeks ago and who has 11 senior appearances to his name. Those were all on loan at Crawley Town this season, and while Woodman is seemingly quite highly rated, he conceded 18 goals, four to both Mansfield and Notts County, while at the League Two club. "

http://www.theguardian.com/football...league-10-things-to-look-out-for-this-weekend

Click to expand...

It'll almost certainly be Darlow, who at 25 is not a youngster, but he's only played one PL game. He did well in that except for one mistake that cost them the game. A big ask, but he could rise to the occasion. The first goal will be even more huge in this game.

Sometimes it is better to be the away team in such a fixture as there is less pressure in the cauldron of the occasion. I note that Newcastle do not have any left sided defenders left fit and coupled with the third choice goalkeeper that may play a part. the game at the Stadium of Light will however be just as important and you would fancy Sunderland to beat West Brom. I am also keeping my eyes on Palace who have another toughie today against West Ham. If they go down and we win (and Sunderland also) that makes next weekend's fixture at Selhurst very tasty.
I think I am going to put a fiver on Villa to be relegated, the other slots are still very much up in the air.

I doubt very much that any bookie would take your bet, or if they did the odds will be ludicrously against. In other words, a fiver bet may garner you ten pence.

Update to my initial analysis:

Obviously a huge win for NCFC, and Sunderland drawing at home to WBA when I'd predicted a win is a bonus too. Palace pick up an unexpected point away at the Hammers.

Winnable = Bold, Draw = Italics "6-pointers" = Underlined
Norwich fixtures: Palace (A), Sunderland (H), Arsenal (A), Man Utd (H), Watford (H), Everton (A).
Palace: Norwich (H), Everton (H), Arsenal (A), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (A), Stoke (H), Southampton (A)
Newcs: Southampton (A), Swansea (H), Man City (H), Liverpool (A), Palace (H), Villa (A), Spurs (H)
Sunderland: Leicester (H), Norwich (A), Arsenal (H), Stoke (A), Chelsea (H), Everton (H), Watford (A)

So ignoring the fixtures where the 4 teams play each other, that gives a table:
Palace +3 = 37 (36 played)
Norwich +5 = 36 (36 played)
---------------------------
Newcastle +7 = 32 (37 played)
Sunderland +2 = 29 (37 played)

That looks an awful lot healthier. Of the remaining "6-pointers" remaining for the North-East clubs, wins for Sunderland (vs NCFC) and Newcastle (vs Palace) don't change the overall predictions, putting them to 35 and 32 points. From an NCFC perspective, that makes 5 points from our remaining fixtures sufficient.

Newcastle remain the biggest threat based on their comparatively easier run-in, but if they don't pick up at least a win in the next two games then they may leave themselves with too much to do. How quickly Benitez can turn them around is key.

Another nice tidbit, Villa can only now reach 34 points from their remaining 6 games, if we get a better result against Palace than Villa get at home to Bournemouth then we get to officially relegate them.

Excellent analysis again, DH. One down, two to go!

DHCanary said:

Update to my initial analysis:

Obviously a huge win for NCFC, and Sunderland drawing at home to WBA when I'd predicted a win is a bonus too. Palace pick up an unexpected point away at the Hammers.

Winnable = Bold, Draw = Italics "6-pointers" = Underlined
Norwich fixtures: Palace (A), Sunderland (H), Arsenal (A), Man Utd (H), Watford (H), Everton (A).
Palace: Norwich (H), Everton (H), Arsenal (A), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (A), Stoke (H), Southampton (A)
Newcs: Southampton (A), Swansea (H), Man City (H), Liverpool (A), Palace (H), Villa (A), Spurs (H)
Sunderland: Leicester (H), Norwich (A), Arsenal (H), Stoke (A), Chelsea (H), Everton (H), Watford (A)

So ignoring the fixtures where the 4 teams play each other, that gives a table:
Palace +3 = 37 (36 played)
Norwich +5 = 36 (36 played)
---------------------------
Newcastle +7 = 32 (37 played)
Sunderland +2 = 29 (37 played)

That looks an awful lot healthier. Of the remaining "6-pointers" remaining for the North-East clubs, wins for Sunderland (vs NCFC) and Newcastle (vs Palace) don't change the overall predictions, putting them to 35 and 32 points. From an NCFC perspective, that makes 5 points from our remaining fixtures sufficient.

Newcastle remain the biggest threat based on their comparatively easier run-in, but if they don't pick up at least a win in the next two games then they may leave themselves with too much to do. How quickly Benitez can turn them around is key.

Another nice tidbit, Villa can only now reach 34 points from their remaining 6 games, if we get a better result against Palace than Villa get at home to Bournemouth then we get to officially relegate them.

Click to expand...

Newcastle's atrocious GD could relegate them I feel. Also, in the space of 5 days, they play Citeh at home and Liverpool away. Both games could seriously worsen their GD!!

I feel that Sunderland are still the main threat. Though Newcastle have winnable games against Swansea at home and Villa away, their other games are: Southampton (A), Man City (H), Liverpool (A), Palace (H), Spurs (H). That could depend on whether Palace are still fighting for their lives (and Newcastle as well, come to that) by that point, but I can't see them getting much from the other games.

I can't help feeling that our best chance of survival lies in the next two games. Sunderland play Leicester next and if we beat them after that the gap could be considerable. We don't have to do a 'Leicester' to survive, just do well in the next two games and take anything we can get after that.

RiverEndRick said:

I feel that Sunderland are still the main threat. Though Newcastle have winnable games against Swansea at home and Villa away, their other games are: Southampton (A), Man City (H), Liverpool (A), Palace (H), Spurs (H). That could depend on whether Palace are still fighting for their lives (and Newcastle as well, come to that) by that point, but I can't see them getting much from the other games.

I can't help feeling that our best chance of survival lies in the next two games. Sunderland play Leicester next and if we beat them after that the gap could be considerable. We don't have to do a 'Leicester' to survive, just do well in the next two games and take anything we can get after that.

Click to expand...

...and the sooner we get more wins on the board the better, if i'm to avoid stomach ulcers in the lead up to a Sky Survival Sunday. Oh for mid-table mediocrity right now!!

When we began the 8 game run-in I always thought that the two away games at West Brom and Paalce were crucial and that we had to win one of them. The fact that we had to beat the NE pair was a given in the calculations and so in one sense we have a bonus game at Palace now having got the win at the Hawthorns, quite a nice position particularly as Sunderland are unlikely to beat Leicester. The game after the above is Watford at home and this is I think winnable and reasonably likely with cup distractions coming into play. All in all, we are looking quite good right now dare I say!