You'd be nuts to have a bet on next years Cheltenham festival IMHO. I used to love the warm glow of an antepost festival voucher which could sustain me through the winter. It started to cool though when the cert Hurricane Fly got turned over by Rock On Ruby in 2012 and I had nothing AP for this festival until NRNB kicked in. 3 of the 5 NRNB AP I struck this year didn't run. Looking through the odds available currently it would appear the bookies are keen on them either. If I had to have one I'd take Djakadam ew at 12s in the Gold Cup. Still only 7, has been runner up twice and has proven he is versatile with regard to underfoot conditions. £5 ew
To be honest I agree with you, I rarely bet antepost either, especially this far in advanced. I really just created the thread for debate really. As it's always interesting to see how the bookies rate certain horses chances for the following year.
Its brilliant, i love it and build up a decent portfolio by the time of the festival. You have to accept youre going to get some in the wrong races and some wont make it but you can get some unreal value. Overall for me it has paid off every year since ive done it so each to their own but no one will stop me and those who think its a waste of money havent been doing it right!
Obviously you can get some serious value if you call it right, but it's very difficult to. You haven't just got to worry about the class of the horse, you need to worry about injury's and where connections will place them. I often find aswell that the antepost prices at say Christmas time will be worse than the prices in the morning on race day. I think the bookies are deliberately tight on antepost markets, as they aren't all that worried about taking money on them, so anything they take is a bonus. I know from my time working in shops, having looked at all my trading figures, that antepost markets are one of the most profitable markets for a bookie.
Yeah because youve got mug punters putting annie power in their festival 4 fold in the mares! Totally stupid. Anyone who touched her before she was NRNB needs their head reading but plenty did and thats why bookies make money from it.
I think the key to successful ante post punting is taking an informed risk. My 3 most successful ante post punts in recent years were as follows: (1) Hurricane Fly to regain the Champion Hurdle - backed him between the Morgiana and Christmas at 9/2 as I was convinced he just wasn't right the year RoR beat him. Although he beat nothing in the Morgiana he looked much better and Mullins was happier with him. (2) Thistlecrack this season - backed him at 20/1 prior to the Long Walk. I'd backed him at Aintree and Punchestown and I thought he was the best staying novice last season. Tizzard said early doors this season they would try him at the top table over 3m hurdles and if got beat they would go novice chasing. I was willing to risk a few euros at 20s that he was better than the existing lot and so it proved to be. (3) Sprinter Sacre - backed at 14/1 for the Champion Chase prior to the Shloer Chase. Henderson was making the right noises and I was convinced he could come back to somewhere near his best (where he beat that stayer with the trapped epiglottis ) and UDS would be vulnerable.
I haven't bet ante-post since I backed Cherry Hinton and Try My Best to win the 1000 Gns, Oaks, 2000 Gns and Derby between them.
Not been on for a week and just seen this. You're entitled to your opinion Oddy and i'm equally entitled to mine.
