Just for a bit of fun, let's be having your verdict on the following festival shorties (3/1 or less with best price from Oddschecker) - hit if you think the horse will win, miss if it won't Min 13/8 Douvan 8/15 Faugheen 2/5 Anne Power 8/11 Yanworth 5/4 No More Heroes 3/1 Un De Sceaux 5/6 Jossies Orders 5/2 Killultagh Vic 11/4 Vautour (Ryanair) 3/1 Thistlecrack 6/4 Limini EVS Barters Hill 11/4 My view: HIT - Min, Douvan, Faugheen, Annie Power, Thistlecrack, Limini MISS - Yanworth, No More Heroes, Un De Sceaux, Jossies Orders, Killultagh Vic, Vautour, Barters Hill
Min 13/8 hit Douvan 8/15 - hit Faugheen 2/5 - hit Anne Power 8/11 - hit Yanworth 5/4 - hit No More Heroes 3/1 - hit Un De Sceaux 5/6 - hit Jossies Orders 5/2 - hit Killultagh Vic 11/4 - miss Vautour (Ryanair) 3/1 - won't run in this Thistlecrack 6/4 - hit Limini EVS - miss Barters Hill 11/4- miss
Different question based on the same premise - what's worth backing at their current prices? Min 13/8 hit - no bet Douvan 8/15 - hit - no bet Faugheen 2/5 - hit - no bet Anne Power 8/11 - hit - no bet Yanworth 5/4 - hit - bet No More Heroes 3/1 - hit - bet Un De Sceaux 5/6 - hit - no bet Jossies Orders 5/2 - hit - no bet Killultagh Vic 11/4 - miss - no bet Vautour (Ryanair) 3/1 - won't run in this - no bet Thistlecrack 6/4 - hit - bet Limini EVS - miss - no bet Barters Hill 11/4- miss - no bet
True Nass. Will also depend how the "punters v bookies" war goes over the first 2 days. He is a 1/2 shot in my eyes though
Spring ground and a big field. Couple of question marks over him whic will give a bigger price. Same with regards his trainer.
Sefton Novices Hurdle at Aintree? Nothing wrong with Mr Tizaaaaaaaaaard You are right though, he will be bigger than 6/4 on the day
Min - Miss Douvan - Hit Machine - Hit Annie - Hit Thistlecrack - Hit Limini - Hit Yanworth - Miss No More Heroes - Miss Un De Sceaux - Hit Josies Orders - Miss Killultagh Vic - Miss Vautour - Hit (Ryanair) Miss (GC) Barters Hill - Hit
What's beating Limini boys? Or Yanworth? It's easy to say things won't win, but you really should be saying what's beating them!
Min - hit Douvan - hit Faugheen - hit Annie - hit Thistlecrack - hit Limini - hit UDS - miss (Sprinter Wins) Vatour - miss will go Gold Cup and will still be a miss Others I have ignored because I have no opinion on
Min-Way to short,will place Douvan-Wins by less than 2lts Faugheen-Wins by more than 5lts Annie-Falls again TC-Wins Limini-No opinion at this stage Yanworth-Wins well NMH-Miss UDS-Wins KV-Miss Vatour-Wins Ryanair,won't stay GC
Only one that is a slight worry is KV very wide open BDM looks pretty handy yday but wouldn't surprise me if a Mullins 2nd string gets his head in front Yanworth looks pretty solid, another exciting recruit to the hurdling division
Limini - don't know too much of the Division but stick with what you have seen and know so for me she is a hit
Simple bookmaking logic: Thistlecrack will be bigger odds on the day (but should still win). Vautour should be avoided until the stable decide where he is going to run. Do not touch the odds-on ante post as they could step on a nail or something and miss the race and lose your money, so wait until they go to post; the odds will not be worse on the day.
Excellent thread and I guess what we are really being asked is, at this stage, do we think the ‘shortie’ will oblige or would we prefer to side with ‘the field’. Here are my thoughts: Min (13/8) – to use a terrible Chav expression I wouldn’t want to ‘diss’ this one as I do think he’s potentially top notch. I’d prefer the field though headed by Mr Henderson’s Altior who could also be, like his trainer, out of the top drawer. MISS Douvan (8/15) – due to lack of creditable opposition one has to cry HIT. Has looked awesome to date and you have to ponder what can possibly beat the old boy. Faugheen (2/5) – almost identical comments to Douvan apply. HIT Anne Power (8/11) – a huge number of doubts make her a MISS right now for me in the ‘Mares’. Will she be fit???, will she return at the same level as in previous terms???, will she actually run here rather than elsewhere??? Yanworth (5/4) – apart from a winner for Mr Henderson is a horse more cheered than when one from the county obliges?!? A first rate prospect who just keeps getting better and better. Expect fireworks form this one at Cheltenham. HIT No More Heroes (3/1) – has done very little wrong in 3 races over the big ‘uns and looks very decent at this stage. HIT Un De Sceaux (5/6) – very borderline this one. I like him and he was impressive last time out but has hit the deck twice in 15 months. There may be more strength in depth in this race than some think and being a sentimental fool I’m certainly hoping Mr Henderson’s ‘Black Aeroplane’ can turn back the clock. Am in 2 minds nut I’ll say MISS. Jossies Orders (5/2) – has done it very well in 2 races over the course this term but this you would imagine would be his toughest test to date. Therefore MISS. Killultagh Vic (11/4) – some decent horses are being steered towards this heat this term and although I respect this one think ultimately ‘the field’ may find one or two to good for him. MISS Vautour (Ryanair) (3/1) – think he’ll run in the CGC so my answer is MISS. Thistlecrack (6/4) – has been the new arrival at the very, very top table this term and looked extremely good in the process. The ‘Cleeve’ took his form to a new level and I think he’ll oblige. HIT Limini (EVS) – another race with more strength in depth than may first appear. No one trains a mare better than Mr Henderson as they respond so well to his ‘magic hands’ and soothing words. I’ll say MISS as I think the forum’s favourite trainer will dominate this event. Barters Hill (11/4) – most progressive individual but I wasn’t hugely impressed by him last time. Again I think one or two from ‘the field’ will get the better of him. MISS In summary my HITS are Douvan, Faugheen, Yanworth, No More Heroes and Thistlecrack.
