Link to Racing Post website for horses entered for the race. http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/c...792&r_date=2015-11-28&antepost=Y#raceTabs=sc_ Saphir Du Rieu is currently 7/2 favourite with Paddy Power. 2012 winner Bob's Worth and Smad Place are priced joint second favourites at 6/1. Here are Ruby Walsh's views on the race. http://blog.paddypower.com/2015/11/...AFF_ID=16562&dclid=CM3pnurbqskCFVSfFgodnNEOfQ "My idea of the likely winner though is Nicky Henderson’s former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth. He showed signs of his old sparkle at Aintree when beating Simonsig over hurdles and is 13lbs lower than his 2012 win in this race." In the last 10 years, previous winners Denman (2007) and Bob's Worth (2012) went on to win Cheltenham Gold Cup in the same season. Link to wikipedia of all previous winners. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hennessy_Gold_Cup#Winners Of course, dual winner Arkle was the best one. But since 1980, does Burrough Hill Lad fit into that category? Interesting link worth reading of past winners. http://course-specialist.co.uk/features/big-race-history-hennessy-gold-cup-2/ The late, great Sir Peter O'Sullevan called home so many winners over the years, will Newbury do a tribute to him on the day?
With the rise in the weights due to Coneygree's absence, Colin Tizzard's Theatre Guide starts to look attractive off a mark of 140. He was third in the race 2 years ago off 145 (beaten 4.5L by Trio D'Alene) and, like many of the yard's horses, didn't enjoy the best of times with Daryl Jacob riding last season. Had a pipe-opener at Wetherby over an inadequate 2m4f and will hopefully have Paddy Brennan up top again. A nice e/w dabble at 33/1.
Why ruin his potential Grand National perch by winning the Hennessy?!? Plus, he’s 9 lbs lower than his ’12 win. 160 in ’12 runs off 151 this term.
I can see SDR going off at 6/4 ish to be honest. Despite top weight and bit to prove, he is in a different class to these. Won't be betting mind you.
SDR Is the class horse of the race but it's a massive ask to carry top weight, I think something will beat him I just don't know what yet
Having Smad Place and Bobs Worth as second favourites sort of sums up the quality in the chasing pack tho Nass!
True, but the latter is very well handicapped, as are a few in the bottom of the weights. SDR is giving over 5lbs away to every horse in the race, including horses from Mullins and some lightly raced sorts like The Young Master. I can see Pricewise going for something, and many swerving SDR making him drift. We shall see though.
Not a great looking renewal now that Coneygree has departed and almost certainly not a race I’ll be getting involved in. Bobs Worth available at 33’s re the GN and that may be the bet to strike prior to tapes up across the county line. Can see him finishing somewhere in the region of 6th – 9th and getting something like a 4 lb deduction in his rating. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more...
Writing in today’s Weekender he describes the race as ‘an absolute thriller’. Each to there own but not something I’d agree with. Anyway, he’s says SDR has to give weight ‘to some seriously smart horses’ and gives special mention to Smad Place, If In Doubt and Ned Stark. Looking at the current prices he may go for the latter named.
Even though you can argue Bob's Worth ran the best "trial" for the race (in beating Simonsig over hurdles!), I've also backed Valseur Lido who's trained by Willie Mullins and a second season chaser, who've got a good record in this race over the last 10 years - previous winners in this category include Denman, Bob's Worth, Many Clouds and Diamond Harry. Willie Mullins also runs Ballycasey and Urano at bigger odds, I'd rather back Urano at 33/1.
Saphir with Coneygree in the line up was the clear bet to me but with him out changes things. Top weight in holding ground looks a tough task, I'd be very surprised should he be a Denman. Won too far at Aintree old boy STD ya did...
Any confidence in Valseur Lido Beefy? Some very nice formlines through Vautour, Don Poli, Wounded Warrior and Apache Stronghold? A placed finish in the Hennessey would give you some more confidence in Vautour? First Lieutenant lurks on a quite silly mark near the bottom too, does he not?
Was looking at First Lieutenant and Ballycasey as two outsiders on competitive marks. Had almost discounted FL as without being read up on it, thought that he might be aiming at the National again. Jumped fine last year but did not get home and lower weight might help
His best form in Grade 1 chases is certainly noteworthy, including a win in 2013 Betfair Bowl at Aintree and twice finished 2nd in the Lexus at Leopardstown. Also finished 3rd to Bob's Worth in 2012 Hennessy. The going shouldn't inconvenience him if it's soft, (could be a negative if it's heavy), and the trip will be right up his street. It wouldn't surprise me if he ended up winning, this is an open race although Saphir Du Rieu might end up winning comfortably!
