I kind of agree with Dexter at the moment. Last years renewal looked quite tasty to me. Not a classic by any means but a decent standard nonetheless. Coneygree should still be improving and if he is that is a high standard to aim at. I think Vautour is a class horse but until he runs against something like Cue Card i'll find it very hard to judge whether he's going to be good enough. He's never had his jumping tested yet because everything he's run against hasn't been good enough to get him off the bridle in the races he's been putting 100% in i.e. Cheltenham races. I cite Cue Card because he's a very similar horse to my eye - fast enough to be a 2 mile chaser. Magnificent over the intermediate trip. Question marks over ability to stay the Gold Cup trip round Cheltenham. Jumping is the single most important factor when judging Willie Mullins chasers don't forget. To sum up, Coneygree has practically no questions left unanswered. He's a very classy horse. Vautour has more questions than answers who could be a great horse.
I think you've summed it up perfectly Bob, I expect Coneygree to set fast fractions to try and get the speedsters in Vautour & Don Cossack off the bridle early. If he does he is the most likely winner but if the speed horses get a good toe into the race on good spring ground one of them will have too much up the hill. I think the ground could be a massive factor this year
The Cue Card similarities are fair with Vautour, as they are both very classy and quick, but as has been proven a strongly run Gold Cup proved to much for Cue Cards stamina. I think Kauto Star even fell into this bracket when they went a true gallop. Horses that are very classy over 2 miles and 2 and half rarely stay the Gold Cup trip if they go a proper gallop. The only way Vautour would have a chance is if they crawled round, but I don't think there is any chance of that happening especially with Coneygree in the field. And how are they going to run Vautour too, they always like to run him from the front, to give him a good sight at his fences to get into a good jumping rhythm. We seen at Ascot that his jumping is still patchy at times, so how is he going to jump if he has to sit off the pace and he has horses all around him. Unless they decide to take on Coneygree for the lead, but I think doing that would likely ruin both horses chances if they got into a battle early on. Vautours only hope would be if he got a soft lead and he could dictate a slow gallop, but the chances of that happening are very slim. Cue Card like Vautour's best trip is 2 miles, and the only reason both run over longer trips is to avoid other horses. Cue Card's connections where sick of seeing the back of Sprinter Sacre, whilst Vautour would have been an Arkle horse last year and would probably be favourite for the Champion Chase if it wasn't for his stablemate Un De Sceaux
Don Cossack is a strong stayer too, watch how much he finds off the bridle at Punchestown last year, and that was over an extended 3 miles, he is definately not lacking in stamina. He'll see out every yard of the Gold Cup trip
Don Cossack definitely has a fair chance. One i'm not particularly keen on at this stage is Don Poli. His RSA looked weak before they jumped and it's proven to be the case. I'd need to see him run against and beat the established order before backing him. Coneygree looks streets ahead of him on all known form but they're best priced 6/1 Coneygree and 8/1 Don Poli. Absolutely horrible.
Thing about Coneygree is how many win back to back Gold Cups? Not many. You're backing him to do what Kauto Star and Denman couldn't do. Even horses like Bob's Worth, who most of us thought was a certainty in 2014, finished out of the places in his attempt. Superstar horses couldn't defend it and I'm far from convinced a 1.5l beating of Djakadam makes him one. This Gold Cup will take more winning than most, fair play whoever does it.
It's also very difficult to rule Djakadam out of the picture given he was only 5 years old last season. He's only run 12 times. Must have been improving all through last year and it looks just as likely he'll improve as it does Coneygree will. They ran first and second in last years Gold Cup so there's no real reason why they even need to improve to win it this year, but you can get 12/1 (and i expect you'll get bigger throughout the season) about Djakadam. He jumps reasonably well. He stays every inch. Seemed to appreciate the hill. Could be on the improve and doesn't seem to have the injury worries Coneygree has. He ran second to Don Cossack to close the season in the Punchestown Gold Cup. That track isn't as testing as Cheltenham in March and he's obviously run the race of his life just a few weeks before. I doubt he'd have been as fit for the Don Cossack clash as he was for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Cheltenham suits Djakadam's style of racing. He's not particularly flashy but gets on with it at his own pace and needs the hill/extra few yards to be able to use that stamina to its fullest. He's not an out and out boat but he's a stayer. He's not going to get involved in a race for the lead which could very well end up in some of the main protagonists cutting each others throats. If you take a lot of that into consideration you've got the makings of an under priced horse. I wouldn't say he's a certainty or anything because he definitely isn't but in a year where the fav may or may not stay the trip, where second fav has had plenty of injury problems, where third fav hasn't proven a liking for the track and fourth fav won a fairly crap RSA so is completely unproven against the class he'll encounter in March, i think Djakadam may be the best each way option at the moment.
I think that's all completely fair to say. If i'm given the option to back something i know is up to winning a Gold Cup or something i really don't have a clue about, it's difficult to go with the second option and that's what it would boil down to for me at this stage of the season. If Don Poli had run against anything reasonably serious then it may be a different matter but until then 8's just isn't big enough for me. Plus, Bryan Cooper would need to be seriously keen on him to jump of don Cossack so i bet he starts bigger than his current price.
The thing about Don Poli winning a crap RSA (Kings Palace 2nd fav FFS!) is I'd bet my bottom dollar he'd beat a handicapper the same distance as he would a G1 horse. His Irish chase form looks stronger than the RSA but as I say, this lazy bugger will never win like Vautour so don't read his RSA form too literally. I always think of Moscow Flyer in cases like this, he beat some hounds in Ireland as far as he beat Well Chiefs and Azertuoips etc Don Poli is a deceptive bugger, he keeps plenty for himself. The faster Coneygree goes up front the more his stamina from 2 out will kick in when others will have cried enough. Worth bearing in mind the RSA is a better guide to winning a Gold Cup than the previous year's. He cannot get beat
I know he's lazy Beefy and that will play in his favour on the day but you still can't get away from the fact he's not beaten anything you'd call top drawer irrespective of how much he's keeping for himself. I've just been through his form again in case i'd missed anything. The best horse he's raced over a fence is Apache Stronghold. Cracking horse but he's only actually won one grade 1 race. It looks like he's found his level around the mid 150 bracket. Which we all all know is a long way off Gold Cup ability. Smashing - decent horse but never going to be top drawer - will win grade two's in Ireland but probably never win anything better than that. Wounded Warrior - similar comments apply. Decent but not top drawer. Southfield Theatre - already exposed as basically useless. Adriana Des Mottes. Pah. What happened in the Champion Novice at Punchestown? Probably over the top but maybe not. I genuinely think he's much better than all these mentioned but its a hell of a leap to say he's 25 lbs better than them all after only winning by reasonably small distances and then explain that away because he's lazy. There's so many questions. So many holes. He's 8/1 and that is a joke. Bookies are laughing at us. if anyone has him at 12/1 or 16/1 then fair enough but other than that I think it's a shocking price.
It's ok Don Poli being lazy against the class of field he's faced but he can't run lazy against top class opposition as he will be left behind before he gets going, he reminds me of The New One
Don Poli is a bottomless pit, he was just getting going up the hill in the RSA and for a horse like him he was in front way too early, he jumped to the front at the 3rd last because King Palace couldnt take him any further. Forget about Don Cossack, I backed him at every festival in his novice season thinking he was a Gold Cup horse, he got well beat again at Cheltenham last season and has beaten nothing at 1/5 this season. Gold Cup horses dont beat Cue Card 25L at 2m4 round Aintree. Don Poli is the only danger to Coneygree, who looks even better this season, his form might not be worth much but a horse like Coneygree will be ideal to get the best out of him, if he handles the jumping at Coneygrees pace he will be very hard to repel up the hill. Cooper will be on him if the prep is good and he has any brains.
Don Poli is a battler who devours the hill. I remember seeing him win a novice race in Ireland before Willie took him to the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham and I had him earmarked from that day as Sir Des Champs natural successor for Gigginstown. Now I understand the form argument, but just keep in the back of your minds just what an impression he had made before Vautours sparkling performance the next day in his JLT. Valseur Lido on Saturday is going to give you the best form comparison of the season. If he runs very well he could be paying Vautour a very nice complement and he could also improve for the trip. Having said that, Don Poli had the chance of taking on Coneygree receiving weight this weekend but they have not taken up the opportunity. If he returns over 2m 4f in the John durkan then Mullins is nuts! Don Poli will relish the battle and for me should not be underestimated. He might get beat in Ireland this season but Cheltenham is.his place and the Gold cup his trip- don't go writing him off because there are flashier types.
I'm not writing him off. He definitely could beat this field after all he's won twice at Cheltenham and you'd be a fool to write him off. It's just a price question for me as I think there's sufficient against him to make 8/1 possibly the worst price I've seen on Oddschecker in many a Festival. Plus he's a Mullins novice chaser progressing to open ages and that is not the great mans forte.
Another point I was going to make but couldn't be arsed going into it all properly is it will not be Coneygree's pace they are running at imho.
No chance. They'll not take Coneygree on upfront, they'll take a lead off him and hope there's fuel left in the tank 2 out to win the race.
No they won't. He's got more speed and a better cruising gallop. If he wants to lead there's nothing that can beat him to the punch unless something pulls it's head off. Ruby will attempt to take the lead, stack them up when he takes a breather two thirds round and use his pace to kick away round the turn. That's their best chance of winning this race imho. They've made the mistake of changing tactics with Nichols Canyon last year and I am convinced they'll not let it happen again.
