i like this theory from ron,its something ive been imagining what happened at ascot but couldnt quite word it right! there is 2 other theory's that i think that might determine whether workforce will win oir not. in light of his soft ground arc win ,withdraw from the bc turf cause of fast going and stoute hoping for rain to run in this,its almost certain he will never do that derby performance again on anything faster than genuine good ground. i still have a theory that i cant quite dismiss and the fact he as lost all 3 times with 6 runners or less but won all 4 times with 8 or more.in fact hes 3 from 3 in the really big fields of 12 runners or more.it came to me that he took a keen hold at ascot and the lack of cover may of been a factor towards that.he races in 2nd that day with no one on his outside and only cape blanco on the inner of him. in all his 3 wins in 12 runner fields +,he as come through the pack from the midfield to rear to lead 1f out and win the race,with 2 occasions drawing right away. if we look at the Brigadier Gerard at ascot,poet went of in front leaving workforce with 6 others for company.he again took a keen hold early on when he ran in 3rd spot but settled more when he was racing in 5th spot after.so most of the way and had a lot more company then at ascot even with only 2 extra runners. whats also is consistent with his losses is not at any stage did he lead in the 3 defeats upto the eclipse,where his 3 wins have all come where he as lead just over 1f out or less . so does workforce simply lose interest without cover and is inclined to take a keen hold?? the eclipse was the first time he found himself in front so early,halfway in fact,he did respond 3f out to go and win it, so again,was it because he had nothing to chase?most likely though he went too soon imo but i do still wonder. you could make a case for the course also,but sandown is right handed ,galloping and stiff like ascot,but its still possible he doesnt act so well there.pilsudski loved sandown and ated ascot,and was similar to workforce as he was a big horse who needed his first run,but somehow at ascot,horses he held on form (e.g. swain) finished in front of him there! ron is probably right though about the ground being the most likely cause for him to run poor at ascot.
Most interesting GP. There be no doubt that some horses do better with cover. I'm not too sure about how I can factor in Workforce's defeat in the Eclipse though. One of the problems with the Eclipse run, is the enigma that is So You Think. If the Oz horse is over rated, then you may have a point when you stated that WF might lose interest if left with no cover. But if SYT is the real deal, then Workforce's effort in the Eclipse was world class. If SYT is among the best 10f runners on the planet, then the effort of WK, after being left in front a half mile out, was amazing. Factor in the fact that that race was two furlongs less than his optimum trip, then he's come close to putting in the best run of his career. Personally, I think he's as tough as teak.
i forgot to add though,if you didnt know already,workforce as high knee action which means such horse prefer soft going,also if we look at his dante loss he hanged,sometimes its certain courses as well as a dislike for the going they are racing on. there was a lot of withdraws at the york 2010 dante meeting,most unusual as the official going was the same i believe in the 5 days leading upto the meeting at the entry stage and the weather stayed the same,so once trainers arrived and walked the course,they realised it was too firm! i suppose a big field with soft going could be workforces optimum (the arc) and small fields on fast is his worst scenerios (dante/king george),so what will a soft ground in a small field bring us?
In the Dante the bit slipped through his mouth hence the defeat. Interestingly Midday is trading at 120 on betfair, it seems the softening of the ground has set it up for her to go to Glorious Goodwood. Very good news if you are a Workforce fan in the antepost market.
Reflecting on what I said earlier (very first comment) I have overlooked one thing in particular; if they all run their race and something wins with its head in its chest then, whichever horse that is, we could have a very live Arc contender.
I think a couple of them are already live Arc contenders anyway to be honest Ron. Workforce and SNA along wth Rewilding could all go close if they get the breaks in the race. I actually think it's shaping up to be one of the most exciting Arcs in many a year depending, as always, on who makes it to Paris fit and well.
Workforce ran poorly at Ascot because he wasn't fit to run, it had nothing to do with his attitude to give his best on fast ground. Watch the race he is trying all the way to the line there is nothing ungenuine about him. Oddog....What exactly is wrong with my Imperial Commander theory, look at his form, he only wins after long lay off's
BBC have the rights to racing at Ascot and I think they're showing four of the races! Must have run out of repeats of 'Diagnosis: Murder'! Just don't know to be honest and not one I can see me having a bet in! Workforce has done little wrong apart from his poor showing in this last season so back at Ascot does that throw up concerns? On his Arc form you could say he should win but SNA wasn't around last season? SNA looked the wonder horse as a 2yo has come back well this season but against what? Just got up to beat Midday but Misty For Me then destroyed her so unsure if that's a good yardstick? Maybe he just didn't handle Epsom? Rewilding I'm still not convinced about. He's won in the desert but so did Eastern Anthem! He beat SYT fair and square on the day but AOB's comments after and his beating of Workforce make me wonder if him being undercooked was the case? If not and this is a much better trip for him he should surely be the favourite? Will Seville definitely run? If he does I can see him in the mix until close to home but three times he's been done on the run in now so why should it change at the weekend? Nathaniel I agree is the interesting one! As DBF says you don't throw £75,000 away at a prep run! Debussy for me I can only think he'll be on pace making duties and I can't see him featuring to much at the business end!
I think Stoute thought he had overworked the horse before Ascot. Therefore, it would seem that he was plenty fit enough, but 'over the top'.
Looking back threw this I see rewinding freshness as been mentioned .the trainer backs up this in what the formbook tells us, but the key question is how long does he need? He seems to run well on his first 2 runs after a lengthy break, normally seasonal debut .his Derby and st leger runs came around 3 weeks or so after 2 easy wins ,so we know that's to short. there is a good case for at least 2 months but this is going to be nearly 6 weeks. Every horse is different but generally horses who show a rest pattern to there form normally find 5 weeks is sufficent enough to get over a hard race .
Flyingbolt.....Look at how far Rewilding and SYT pulled clear of the rest if your concerned about AOBs excuses after the POW. Sri Putra got closer to SYT at Sandown than he did Rewilding at Ascot. AOB always makes excuses when one of his hype horses gets stuffed, the guys a sore loser, I wouldn't read anything into it
No concerns about it really - excuses or a real reason etc. He was far from stuffed and looked much better in the Eclipse for me - a rematch somewhere down the line would be good to see! The distance with Sri Putra wasn't too different as I remember? Just, for some reason, I can't buy into Rewilding and in beating SYT it is probably the best bit of form this season! If he's too come on for his run at Ascot then he should win cosily - just not something I can picture?
Who would suggest he has an attitude problem or that he is not genuine? Good Lord, he's as genuine as they come. I think you have misinterpreted my comments Shergar. Thought I should clear that up. I think the trainer shares my view on the ground and I'll be very surprised if WF ever runs on anything firmer than good again.
I just watched the replay of the Eclipse for the first time as I was on holiday at the time. The thing I noticed was SYT's tongue lolling out all over the place. Is this detrimental to his performance in any way, and are we likely to see him with a tongue strap in future?
There are three really good four year olds in this year's race but I have been really impressed with Workforce this season, especially in the Eclipse. I can see him out-battling SNA and Rewilding and can't see anything else getting a look-in.
Hey folks, what a fascinating thread and a wonderfully varied discussion. It is in some ways a disappointing King George in the sense that so many more big names could be added to it, yet an extremely intriguing puzzle with some hugely talented horses. On a basic level, we have Workforce, the standout pick on best form having won the Derby and the Arc with a terrific, powerful finish...Rewilding, the staying on Derby third who looked an improved horse in Meydan this winter and confirmed that with a superb defeat of So You Think...St Nicholas Abbey, the horse we all knew had ability who has bounced back with a bang but has question marks over the strength of his form, and the supplemented Nathaniel who appears to have won over the full confidence of John Gosden with an impressive Group 2 win, having been taken out of The Epsom Derby where Treasure Beach advertised his form. A few things stand out regarding Nathaniel- a) He has always been described by Gosden and racing pundits as having a soft-ground action and a preference for cut in the ground, and b) They felt that the track never suited him at Chester and that he has improved since then. I tipped him to win at Ascot last time out and I said at the time I wouldn't mind an ante-post price for the Arc (at the time there were none available) and it seems that with the Longchamp ground traditionally good-to-soft or softer, that it is a more realistic target than people thought. The Ascot form will work out well over time IMO- Mijhaar is very well thought of by the Varian yard, Fulgur won a really good handicap (just beating Mijhaar), and Fiorente looks to be a very nice horse. Course form is always invaluable and you know what you will get from Nathaniel- a real gallop to the line and not afraid of a battle (going hammer and tongues with Frankel on debut and Treasure Beach at Chester), so 10/1 to me looks an interesting bet. If we get any cut in the ground it will be a real bonus. HOWEVER: In Workforce and Rewilding we have two top drawer horses and Nathaniel has a lot to prove. He is completely different in style to Harbinger and I think will end up making it a real gallop, going for home relatively early. Ironically, as much as I feel SNA has it all to prove, I do think the race will be set up for him, especially if Nathaniel stacks the pack up on the bend. I've got a feeling Rewilding will get outsprinted for home and I think we will see a battle between Nathaniel, Workforce, and St Nicholas Abbey and they would be my first 3 home. I think that we will see Nathaniel really go and test them though off Swindley Bottom and I will go for Workforce to banish the demons of a year ago and get up close home to fend off a relentlessly galloping Nathaniel and a running on SNA. 1) Workforce 2) Nathaniel 3) St Nicholas Abbey We will certainly learn a lot more about these 3, whatever happens.
