Cyc, it has happened many times in the history of racing that a horse has won on fast ground, as Workforce did in last year’s Derby, but that has turned out to be an exceptional circumstance. If the horse does not like fast ground, running it repeatedly in such conditions is generally detrimental to its wellbeing. If the going is Good on Saturday (as seems likely with this week’s weather forecast), Workforce will run. If the ground is on the easy side, this should not be any hindrance to St Nicholas Abbey judging on his two-year-old form. Lady Rothschild may not want it too soft for Nathaniel, even though he won on such ground at the Royal meeting, because they want to find out if he is top draw or if he beat trees last time. Victory (or even a narrow defeat) on Saturday would probably make him the best middle distance three-year-old in Europe. Nass, you did not specify when any of those John Gosden quotes were made. I suspect that they were very shortly after the Royal Ascot race and the last one does contain the caveat “if the owners want to go there”.
As my regular readers are aware it is Nathaniel for me. Quotes of 10/1 are Value with a capital ‘V’ in my opinion. Frankel apart his performance in winning the old ‘King Edward VII’ last time was to the old chuckle eye the performance of the season thus far and I totally agree with Shergar that he should have ran in the Derby as his form with Treasure Beach, allied to the obvious improvement Nathaniel underwent following Chester, would have led to him going very, and I do mean very, close at Epsom Downs. The race isn’t going to be a strong one numerically but I expect Nathaniel to triumph. Old boy Gosden seems to have had a quick change of heart re this horses targets after Royal Ascot (I suspect some owner interference may have taken place) and certainly if all went according to plan surely it would ultimately be the Arc this term. You don’t run a horse of undoubted top, top quality in a Newbury Group 3 and then the Leger.
Nass: Hope you are right as i have a nice bet on him for the St Leger but have written it off after the owners comments. Maybe Mr Gosden will get his way, probably be down to how well he performs against the big boys this week-end.
The St Leger is worth nearly £300,000 to the winner and carries Classic status but it is still "more unlikely than likely" that Nathaniel will run at Town Moor in September, James Wigan, the racing manager to the colt's owner Lady Rothschild, said on Tuesday. Nathaniel was promoted to the head of the Leger market last week after an impressive defeat of Fiorente in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, and had been as short as 9-4 to give John Gosden his second successive win in the Doncaster Classic. However, Fiorente was immediately declared an unlikely runner in the Leger, and now Nathaniel has joined him on the list of doubtful starters. "We were very happy with him at Royal Ascot," Wigan said. "He did it very well and has come out of the race well. The St Leger is an option, but I would say it is more unlikely than likely at this stage. "I think we'll look at some of the very good mile-and-a-half races and the St Leger wouldn't be my favourite destination for him at the moment, but we'll see. I don't want to pinpoint any races for him. There are all sorts of possibilities." 22nd last month I think if he can't beat the field at Ascot he will be going for the St Leger, if he wins he has to go for the Arc.
This used to be the highlight of the season for me but it's not as strong a race as it used to be - certainly the fields are much smaller than they were. Still with Goodwood just arounf dthe corner and other middle distance races now seemingly preferred by some owners/trainers it's just one of those things. I was impressed by SNA's run in the Coronation as he seemed to make life far harder for himself than was necessary but Midday's subsequent form makes you wonder just how good a run it was. The same goes for Rewilding in terms of what you beleive about AoB's comments with regard to SYT. My theory on that is he should have had a couple of harder races before going to the prince of Wales but AoB wouldn't say that as it could have been seen as disrespect to the connections of the horses he beat in Ireland. As for Workforce, God alone knows what to make of him this season - looked very impressoive at Sandown given the weight he was carrying and his run in the eclipse was a fine one given that it wasn't his optimum distance. There's no poiint in betting ion him untill the day of the race as if the ground isn't to his liking he simply won't run in my opinion. Nathaniel obviously has great appeal having ran beautifully at Ascot already this season and his price is clearly apealing. As there will only be a maximum of 2 places I'm more and more likely to not have a bet. However, if Workforce turns up I may well back him. After last year he has a lot to prove and given the way he's bounced back before i really wouldn't put it past him to do it again.
If you back a selection now ante post and there are 8 or more runners you will still get 3 places cometh the day, the joy of taking the ante post chance!
I actually have a strong view on this race and to me there's a stand out choice in it. That horse is Workforce. I backed him last night at 2/1 as I fully expect him to shorten up before the race and possibly go off the jolly. SNA has a fair bit to find on a pure form basis, granted Ascot will suit much better than Epsom but he has yet to run to within 5 or 6lbs of Workforce. I'm sure O'Brien has left a bit to work on but he'll need to run much the best race of his life to win this. Rewilding is a bigger threat judged on his Ascot form though Workforce had everything against him the last day against the same rival, SYT, and still ran a massive race. If things had panned out better for Workforce he may have given SYT an even sterner test. I think the ground will be softer than ideal for Rewilding. Workforce has the form, will have the ground, stables form getting hotter, there's a fair bit in his favour this time. Workforce 2/1. Fill yer boots.
Chippy.....The race may be lacking in quantity but there certainly isn't a lack of quality, Id argue this is the best renewal of the race for years. When can you ever remember a race where a G1 winner in there own right is a 100/1 rank outsider. I prefer the small fields, atleast then you can see fairly who the best horse is, there is nothing worse than races like last seasons Arc, where you have a field littered with no hopers, getting in the way of the main contenders, pretty much all the main contenders bar Workforce were interfered with when trying to make there challenge
Cyc, my view is that when Workforce ran in the Derby, he was a big baby and just ran his heart out not realising that the firm ground would hurt. I think it made him a bit sore and although after a good rest he was OK, it made him realise that running to his full capability on firm ground will hurt. Therefore he may not be so willing to give 100% on firm going. I am absolutely convinced that although he is a stronger horse now he would never again re-produce that performance at Epsom under the same conditions. If he were to be subjected to such a test I think it would ruin him, which is why I hope he never runs on firm going again.
Take a look at the current International Classification. Frankel is joint top with 130. The next three-year-old is Pour Moi, rated 122 for his victory at Epsom, a mark that he shares with St Nicholas Abbey. Rewilding is the top-rated runner on Saturday with 127 ahead of Workforce’s 125. Nathaniel does not feature in the top fifty, which Seville manages with his 119 rating as the Irish Derby runner-up. If Rewilding/Workforce/St Nicholas Abbey run to form on Saturday and Nathaniel beats them, he would have to achieve a rating that would elevate him above Pour Moi. Prix Du Jockey Club winner Reliable Man is rated 121 along with Treasure Beach. The last time I went to see this race, it was won by Swain. I had hoped that this year would provide a good field in terms of quality and quantity as there does not appear to be any outstanding middle distance performer in training in Europe so competition is wide open. Regrettably it looks like being another six- or seven-runner affair that I shall be witnessing. Well done to beeforsalmon for snapping up 2/1 Workforce – somebody in the betting jungle must have thought it was going to be a dry week!
QM...The ratings are irrelevant as far as Nathaniel's chances go, he was beaten a short head by TB, on ground that was unsuitable, with his opponent getting the run of the race. He then got his ground at Ascot and galloped all over a decent G2 field, surely he has to be rated close if not the same as TB. IMO if Nathaniel can produce the same sort of form that he did at Royal Ascot on Saturday he will atleast go close. That course and distance form is priceless, something none of his rivals have. Just remember Harbinger going to the King George after a G2 win at the Royal Meeting over course and distance. John Gosden knows exactly what he is doing, he wouldn't advise connections to part with 75k if he didnt thinnk the horse was up to taking on the big boys
KS, I think that you will find that Sir Evelyn De Rothschild is not short of a few quid (owns Crystal Capella amongst others) and that he will have shelled out to supplement his wife’s horse. The reason that the horse is going to the King George and not being trained specifically for the St Leger will also be entirely down to the owners on this occasion. The rating that Nathaniel achieved at Royal Ascot would have been considered for the International Classification but clearly you hold the “decent G2 field” in higher regard than the handicappers, as that rating is less than 119. Treasure Beach garnered his 121 by running second at Epsom, which the assessors obviously considered improved form and a finer achievement than the Chester race. I hope Nathaniel puts in a tremendous performance for his owners, trainer and supporters but I shall not be backing him myself.
Not sure money is the issue Shergar given the enormous wealth of Nathaniel's connections and the fact that even if he finished fourth he would recoup around 60K of the supplementary entry fee of 75K....however,I agree that JG is expecting a big run. Delighted to see sporting owners and gives the race an extra dimension as well as providing a real formline between the younger and older middle distance divisions. I like Workforce but this is a race to savour for me and definately a no bet contest.I'll have to subsidise my weekend entertainment budget via the bumper at Wexford!!!
Very tough race to weigh up not because of the opposition but how the race will be run... Both SNA & Rewilding have a turn of foot which may then mean that Workforce might have to make all again.. he did this in the derby however that was off a strong pace and I'm slightly worried that there isn't a pacemaker as such in the race.. Yes WF is better over this trip but with a slow pace in race bar WF then perhaps it might turn into a fast pace as such.. I'm putting myself of here.. not cos doubt his ability just how race will be run.. as imo Workforce is the best horse in the race. Another race ill prob leave but then back workforce on the day
I was in Ascot today and it was bucketing down so unless we get some serious sunshine between now and then i would say Good ground will be as firm as it gets. I fancy Rewilding to win as i feel he never fulfilled his potential last season but has matured this year as a result of his racing. His Ascot win was a distance short of his optimum and i feel he will just about beat Workforce in a similar fashion to Ascot. One thing i would say is i feel some trainers are exceptional judges and others much less so, for instance if you see a Henry Candy horse backed follow it as he really is a good judge. John Gosden i feel is quite a poor judge in general and i feel Nathaniel's entry for 75'000 is a mistake. He may get his money back by taking third place but can see him going no better and will probably have a hard race as well. A great race though and after many of us commenting on poor quality racing, this race reminds us why we love the sport and why it gets our eyes opening just that little bit wider than normal of a Saturday afternoon.
Bluesky....I have a theory on Rewilding, for me he was an outstanding 3yo, he just needed to be fresh, his 2 biggest races he went to the Derby and Leger after short breaks, but had he gone to either of those races fresh he may well have triumphed in both. Every time he has had a long lay off he has won, Great Voltiger Dubai Sheema Classic and POW, that's why I'm not 100% convinced he can reproduce another top performance again in the KG so soon after the POW. For me he is a better horse than both WF and SNA at his best, and if he showe up on form he will beat both of them, but I just don't trust him after the Leger that's why I'm sticking with Nathaniel who could be anything. Are you from Ascot aswell? The weather has been awful, rained most of the day, and most of yesterday, so it's likely to be soft
I think your theory is very credible Shergar, you may be right but i am going with the idea that he just needed more time and that he is just starting to show his best now at four. I do agree Nathaniel could be anything but he is going to have to be pretty special to beat that lot. I will nail my colours to the mast and say Rewilding workforce first and second the rest no where, i will not be surprised to see it the other way round but i still see the others no where. I agree it could well be soft, yes i live about 3 miles from the course. I had to visit the heatherwood yesterday just opposite the course and it was very heavy rain, i hope there is no more as i hate soft going so if we have no more we should get good going although more likely good to soft.
I have done a 3pts EW double with William HIll for Workforce 13/8 (1/4 odds ew) and Frankel 11/10 (1/3 odds ew). If both place then you will more or less get your money back. I feel both have outstanding chances to win and both should be at least in the frame.
