Golden Horn

I know this may be a little premature as the horse may have one more run in him before being trotted off to stud. Although I usually feel horses get retired to stud too early in the case of Golden Horn it is perhaps understandable in that they have not wrapped him in cotton wool and allowed him to be tested fully in his three year old career. It would of course be good to be able to allow another generation of three years olds to arrive next year to gain some perspective but the horse has at least taken on what was there this year. I feel we had two potentially fantastic horses this year in Golden Horn and Gleneagles and I feel Gleneagles needs stay in training to prove himself as unfortunately he was not allowed to run enough this year to really allow an opinion to be tested. My instinct is that he also is very good, but I am not sure.

Back to Golden Horn and I feel he is a very high class horse and would put him in on par with Sea the Stars. There does appear little depth this year and so testing was difficult and this is the constant problem in measuring a horse and we have probably only three horses with which to build a case in The Grey Gatsby Flintshare and Treve. The three year olds look very ordinary this year and the three horses of promise looked from early to be Gleneagles, Jack Hobbs and Golden Horn. As Jack Hobbs has yet to be tested aside from GH he is hard to use and as Gleneagles was not allowed to run in the intended races in which they would clash he is of little use also. This leaves us with the three older horses previously named.

My view is that flintshare is a good marker as he runs consistently but is not a consistent winner at G1 level and more a placer. The Grey Gatsby falls into the same category leaving Treve as the real measure. Treve is a superb mare and although I must say even had she won her third Arc today I would not have placed her much higher than she already was she does lend a lot of credibility to Golden Horns rating. Treve was primed today, had ground which would have been perfectly ok even though not the type that gives her an advantage over others, and GH beat her well and fair and square.

Although it's hard to measure I like to see a horse win with style, this always gave Frankel the advantage with ratings profilers and always held Sea the stars back a little, within this measure GH did look impressive in the Derby and the Arc today but also looked quite ordinary in a couple of races.

I reckon a rating of around 138 - 140 and equitable to Sea the Stars.

What does anyone else think?

 

I would back Golden Horn to beat Sea The Stars over 1m4f.
If Dancing Brave and Shergar are say 140 (I know the rating got changed for Frankel)
I would put Golden Horn 138 and Sea The Stars 137.

 

So Dubai Millenium and Shergar could not get a top rating as they did not run/win G1 8-12f?

 

That's definitely a view that could hold water Oddie but I feel it's harsh to insist a horse cannot be great unless the range of distance is proven, we have had some amazing milers that would never have stayed 12f but were still great horses worthy of high ratings. Before today I would not have elevated GH so high but we need take into account that had Treve won today she would have been hailed a wonder horse yet to be fair GH beat her cold. I don't think anyone had their ground today in that it was slow enough to suit Treve and fast enough to suit GH and neither were advantaged or inconvenienced, I think both gave their running and GH is the better horse.

 

Going to be picky here (sorry Oddy ). Dubai Millennium never won over 12f, his only attempt at the trip was in the Derby where he was coltish and faded to finish only 9th. He won G1s over 8f and 10f.

 

I do agree that you can't use distance to gauge the greatness of a horse. If we say only middle-distance (12f) horses can be considered great, we dismiss an awful lot of truly amazing horses!

 

DM did not win over 12f, Shergar was just a 12f horse, but both would beat STS over their respective best distances IMO.
A great horse is a great horse, milers, sprinter etc. I just think GH beats STS over 12f on good ground like today and over 10f i can't split.

 

First and foremost Golden Horn has had a brilliant season. I remember thinking it was fanciful that he was in the Dante and he just kept proving people wrong. He has shied from no one really either, just a shame that he and Gleneagles never went toe to toe.

I think there are similarities between Golden Horn and STS- they are both uncomplicated sons of Cape Cross who you always feel you never got to the bottom of!

For me I think STS had better opposition from Ballydoyles 3 top 3 year olds that year but equally he didn't face a Treve! STS was unbeaten and won the Juddmonte when not at his best which is where he just shades Golden Horn, but that takes nothing away from his season as he has been brilliant and Gosden was bold to take him there and for the owner to pay the money. Great stuff.

Well done connections and anyone on him today at a very fair price.

Would the Breeders Cup suit him?

 

Id have Sea The Stars comfortably above Golden Horn, Golden Horns best performance was in the Derby for me when beating another top class 3yo well, but I still wouldnt put that performance on a par with Sea The Stars in the Irish Champion or Arc. Sea The Stars Guineas field wasnt a great one but there was some decent horses like Rip Van Winkle and Mastercrafstman in there, I dont think Golden Horn would have won that race but thats just a guess.

I just think Sea The Stars was more impressive winning the same races, and he has the Guineas and Juddmonte over Golden Horn who has never felt as invincible as Sea The Stars did that season, its not even a debate imo.

I think Sea The Stars is on 135, id say 131-132 is fair for Golden Horn.

 

TopClass, STS was beaten first time out unless you meant as a 3yo. RVW would of beat STS if Kinane had not caught him across the nose with the whip as he was beginning to get up in the eclipse. Overall I think there is nothing between them to be honest.
What if GH wins the breeders cup?

 

What I like about Golden Horn is that in the races I have watched him he looked like the winner throughout and that is a sign of a good horse, I thought today that once you saw Frankie get him on the leaders shoulder even though there was quite a way to go you thought he would win. One of his strengths is he really does stay 12f well so can have a strong pace as in the Derby and still finish, he could have walked the St Leger if wishing to at 14f in my view and the 10f races were never his natural distance.

My issue with giving him a high rating is that until today I don't think he was adequately tested for greatness which as is often the case, but something the horse and connections can do nothing about. He was entered in all the best races and only pulled out of one, which of course he is entitled to, it was not as though he was dodging anything or anyone. Today however in his only real measurable form test he was impressive. I think when time has passed and I reflect on horses I have seen I will consider him a very good horse and probably underrated a little (time will tell). I think some horses become underrated due to manner of running and some because of the poor opposition whilst some get possibly overrated due to the same things. I am a huge Dancing Brave fan as that was the year I found racing as a boy but I do sometimes wonder how he would have got on against some horse rated lower, I think he benefitted from his scintillating burst of foot ensuring everyone went wow. Would he have done that against Se the Stars? Nashwan? Generous? not entirely sure.

 

I don't believe Treve gave her running today. Firstly, looking at her in the parade ring she did not look her usual self. She had no presence and looked a bit dull in her coat. Secondly She always beats Flintshire but didn't today. Conversely, Golden Horn looked an absolute picture. From our assessment of them in the paddock, we reckoned Treve (sadly) was beatable and therefore put our money on Golden Horn and New Bay. However it was a real anti climax once we could see Treve wasn't going to win. Really wanted her to win but it just wasn't her today. We think she won "her Arc" on trials day

As far as Golden Horn is concerned, he ran a cracker with the French Derby winner in 3rd. Any other year I would have been ecstatic but this year it was meant to be Treve and, despite having backed the winner, it was a sad end to the race for us.

 

Bold run from Golden Horn and a wonderful ride by Frankie. Taking the horse down the centre of the track then easing across was a brilliant bit of thinking by Dettori and I suppose John Gosden. In avoiding the traffic, it allowed the horse to settle. I saw the debate about the merits of Golden Horn v Sea The Stars and personally, I think I'd side with the latter. For all of Golden Horn's strength, I don't think he's have been able to run away from Sea The Stars when the whips were cracking. Given all things being equal, I think Sea The Stars would have camped nice and close and had the change of gears to finish over the top of Golden Horn. There can be no doubt though, Golden was a well deserved winner and is a top flight colt.

Treve. I've read that she didn't look all that flash in the yard before going out onto the track. Watching her in transit, she was lathered up and throwing her head about in running. The Champion clearly didn't have her attention on racing. She also looked as though she began to lay in down the running. I wouldn't be surprised if in the lead up and in running, Treve spent a lot of valuable energy. I'm can't be sure, and I don't think anyone can, but you'd have to wonder if Treve at her best could have spotted Golden so much of a start and ran him down. Some will say yes, others no. Subjecture. I think one of the most telling things about the great mare's effort yesterday, was the lack of "ping" when asked for the effort in the straight. I don't think it's altogether fair to blame the state of the track either. Sadly, I think she was a spent force before she left the stalls.

Ron, I know how you feel about it being a bit anti climatic. I felt the same way yesterday when my much beloved Brisbane Broncos lost the Grand Final against the North Queensland Cowboys. We led 16-12 but let in a try with 10 seconds left on the clock. 16-16. They missed the kick, so the game went into extra time. The first to score in that period wins. We won the loss and elected to receive. They kicked it to us and we knocked on about 10 metres out. NQ won the scrum and kicked a field goal. I'm still in serious pain.

 

So with Golden Horn winning does that mean had Arabian Queen run would she have won the arc yday but in all serious has that just increased the price of her crop when she goes to stud! 'Out of a G1 mare who beat a subsequent arc winner! '

 

It's not just good horses that can throw in a wobbler Oddy, but great ones too.

 

I think it would have been very close between the pair, both would have been up with the pace and I just feel STS would have had that better kick.

As for Treve today, I didn't see the race live but in the straight she seemed to be lugging in. Could this show she was hurting on the quick ground, a bit like at Ascot? If this wasn't the Arc I'm pretty sure she wouldn't have taken her chance.

 

I'm not sure she would have won on any going CH. She didn't look right before the race. The difference in the paddock between her and Golden Horn was very worrying. Even so she still put in a fine effort and although I backed Golden Horn, I was cheering for Treve as soon as she started a move (having given up on her long before that). As soon as I could see she wasn't going to make it, the whole World fell in. We were so gutted we didn't even see the celebrations of the winner. Can't believe it but it didn't cross our minds to watch any of it and this morning we feel ashamed. I wouldn't blame the jockey either although he didn't exactly play a blinder. Another very noticeable thing was the Treve fever all over the place, all over the loud speakers, - the pressure on the jockey must have been immense and maybe he found it difficult to handle.

Haven't read any reports from jockey or trainer. That will be interesting