Time of 2m26.63 is very fast for ground conditions, but it must have been closer to gd/fm. This was over 3 secs faster then rp standard, along with the listed race that was also faster, and even the claimer was just 0.24 behind its standard. Reliable man, who went of the 2-1 fav and finished 4.5l back in 3rd, had previously won the French derby on soft, although the time that day suggested it was closer to good, but the trainer stated after this race that ground was probably to firm and he lacked sparkle. Iâve watched replays and sectional times were on the replay to make it easy of how the race unfolded. Seville covered the first 7f in 1m27.32 at a rate of 12.47 secs per furlong on average, he though stepped up the gas from 5f to 3f to go 23.09 or 11.54 a average of the 2f from 5f to 3f, he was then slowing down, understandably after, as he clocked 11.66 from 3f to 2f, 11.95 from 2f to 1f and a really slow 12.91 for the last furlong. From 3f to 1f at longchamp itâs slightly downhill, and slightly uphill for the last furlong. Meandre was approx 6 lengths behind Seville 5f out meaning he averaged 12.64 secs per furlong for the first 7f. As Seville stepped it up, meander also did and was still approx 6l of him at 3f meaning he clocked approx 23.09 from 5f to 3f also. meandre then started to really go for it and clocked 11.26 from 3f to 2f and 11.5 from 2f to 1f to close the gap to just under 2l of Seville. Donât forget at this point Seville was tiring. meandre clocked 12.26 for the final furlong, think this is the effect of the final 1f at longchamp and he was also eased slightly close home. As you can see ,meandre clocked faster sections from 3f out then Seville did and even when slowing down inside the final uphill furlong, it wasnât as dramatic as sevilles .Seville lost nearly 1 sec in the last furlong where meandre lost 0.76 and was eased slightly also. If you imagine meandre didnât run, Seville would have been a comfortable 3l winner from the French derby winner and would of probably had rave reviews and of course his odds tumbling down for the arc. but even though he did go for home too early, his top speed sections are not exactly outstanding either in hindsight to what meandre achieved. The winner was able to go a faster top speed from 3f out and even when the slow down occurs inside the final uphill furlong, it wasnât as bad as sevilles .Seville seems very one paced in the final furlong, hence why he hasnât won a top race yet, maybe genuine soft ground to offset his lack of top speed could bring out that big race win heâs been close to doing. The sections suggest they all went for home early as meandre tracked Seville when he turned it up, resulting in him also slowing down inside the final furlong. In last years arc trials, for some reason, the prix neil won by bekhabad was faster run then normal and bekhabad came home 11.7 secs from 2f to 1f and 11.9 secs from 1f to finish, suggesting the slight uphill section of the last furlong only slows a horse down by 0.2 secs .of course in that race ,the ground was much softer and they went for home 2f out so they were full of running at the end. the arc winner almost always clocks under 36 secs for the final 3f if the ground is good or faster and meandre as done this in 35.02 secs. In comparison to the Epsom derby, oaks and coronation cup, pour moir came home from just over 3f(about 3.2f) from home in 37 secs of the fastest pace of all big 3 races. dancing rain also came home in 37 secs, but of a really slow pace of the 3 big races. the coronation cup winner st Nicolas abbey came home in 38.5 secs ,he got unbalanced so would suggest he could of done 38 secs if ran straighter. Andre fabre outstanding record in the arc with his 3yos is now even stronger. Aidan o Brien stated after that treasure beach may have been brought back to quick, he took well over 13 secs for the final furlong which is painfully slow and does indicate that his 2 efforts in the derbyâs as took its toll.he clocked around 38.2-38.6 secs for his finish at epsom. Seville was fresher as he didnât really run any kind of race at Epsom so only had 1 hard race compared to treasure beachs 2 hard races. id bet Seville would also run poorly if he appears again too soon just like treasure beach did here. as Seville is German bred, they stage group 1s over 1m4f in the autumn that a lot of the time is on soft ground, heâs unlikely to win a uk/French/irish group 1 now, so maybe Germany might give him the best chance of group 1 success, although Aiden o Brien isnât like Godolphin and raid there group 1âs
I struggle to see Seville winning a G1, don't get me wrong he is talented, but he is just short of being top class for me. I'm not sure where they will go next with him, if I owned him I'd probably have a crack at the St Leger
Like KS, I think that Seville will be part of the O'Brien raiding party for the St Leger, although that is not to suggest that I think he will win as he has lost the two Derbies that I backed him in! I do not think too much should be read into the time for the Grand Prix de Paris. I expect that Meandre and Pour Moi will meet in the Prix Niel on Longchamp trials day (11 September). That could be an interesting pointer for the Arc, depending on who else shows up.
He'll go to the St Leger for me too - backed him three times now - the Derbies and with a little I won on off Cadeaux Pearl. Can see him stay in training and then next season a G1 could be in the offing!
Well I wouldn't fancy him in the Coronation Cup, with the way he handled Epsom, nor would I fancy him in any 10f G1 as he's abit of a plodder. Maybe an Irish Field St Leger
I guess it depends which other horses stay in training but it wouldn't surprise me if he won a G1 somewhere down the line.
