Can Australia gain their first July Cup on Saturday. It looks as though the new sprinter on the block from GB is the only horse standing in the way. Present odds here Timeform preview here
Muharaar was so so impressive at Ascot, it looked a top quality field. His greenham run is also pretty good and he gets lots of weight, however he is now up against experienced sprinters. I think he may just drift on the day and would be happy to wait and play at 3/1
I think the Aussie sprinter Brazen Beau will do it. We all know how weak 3yo sprinters usually are, and very few land a blow against the older horses. So the fact Muharaar has only proved himself against other 3yos is a good reason to be against him. I expect Muharaar will still run a good race, but I just don't think he'll quite get the better of Brazen Beau. I know Brazen Beau as far as the Aussies are concerned is still a 3yo, even though he was born in 2011, but he has the form against the older horses to prove that he's up to this level. I think people who are siding with Muharaar are underestimating the difference in ability between 3yos and older horses at sprint distances. So I'd be suprised if that 3yo sprint that he won at Ascot was a strong race
Not sure what I'll fancy in 900 years time Ron! Not sure the equine beauties of today will be around... As much as I find reading Shergar's posts pain-stakingly tough, I do actually agree here. The aussie sprinter will take this in my opinion, having had a nice pipe-opener on British soil at Ascot, a better ride should see him take the spoils. Also fancy Danzeno to run well at a price, currently 16/1 with B365.
So what you are saying is they are both 3 year olds in their own country but only one of them can win as they have mixed it against older horses. Muhaarar also gets 6lb's from BB
Yeah I think Brazen Beau has proven himself more, as he's taken on and beaten the older horses. Brazen Beau didn't get any weight allowance in the Diamond Jubilee, so he's proven he can carry the 4yo weight, and run with a lot of credit, so I don't see the weight he's conceding as a significant problem for him. Muharaar won well at Ascot, but beating 3yo sprinters in a G1 is completely different to competing with the older horses, particularly at sprint distances where history has proven they hold a huge advantage. Brazen Beau has already proven at Ascot, where some would say he was a little unlucky that he's up to this level, where as Muharaar hasn't, regardless of wether he's getting 6 pounds or not. I think Muharaar has a bright future ahead of him, I just feel he'll come up a little short on Saturday
If they both run their best should be a fascinating race. In a close finish I think BB could just nick it
I find this interesting. Muhaarar covered the Ascot 6f 0.6 secs faster than Brazen Beau on same going and carrying the same weight. So if you superimposed one race on the other Muhaarar would have finished 3½l in front. Add to this Muhaarar will carry 6lb less than Brazen Beau on Saturday and you could have a very convincing case for Muhaarar. I think I'll just watch with interest.
The going description is always done early in the morning Ron, and there was plenty of rain about after that on the Saturday of Royal Ascot. Saturday was the only day of Royal Ascot that was effected by the rain, so it must of had an effect on the times. There is no way the 3yos carrying the same weight would set a much faster time than the older horses if the track was the same.
What allowance would you make for the going change Shergs? 6lbs is worth a couple of lengths over 6f. Add that to the 3½l above. That;s (theoretically) 5½l we need to account for.
I don't know about weight but I reckon the track was running a good 8-10 lengths slower over 6f, so I really would ignore the times on both days. Pretty much every time on Friday was less than a second outside standard, and some where even fast, where as the Saturday times where a lot slower. Just to give you an example the time of the Duke Of Edinburgh handicap over 1m4 which was won by Arab Dawn carrying 9'1 was won in a fast time of 2m28 on the Friday, where as the Hardwicke stakes a G2 run on the Saturday won by Snow Sky carrying 9'0 was won in a slow time of 2m31. I remember betting at Brighton a few weeks ago, and it was given as good to firm in the morning, and they had some really heavy down pours and the going was changed to soft during the meeting. I then stumbled across some form later on of horses who had run on that day, and the racing post form is still saying it was good to firm. Luckily because I was watching Brighton that day, I knew what the real going was. But your average punter who can't follow the racing daily would wrongly just take the racing posts word for it
Cheers Shergs. That would put BB a few lengths clear on that basis. Intriguing. I often wondered why Timeform's going description was sometimes different to the RP and ATR. Maybe Timeform check the going for each race. They should really factor in the going for different sides of the track when the going differs
Haha you've chosen two races were one was run at a crawl and won by the leader kicking away to suit your argument
They should do, but it's all to much effort for them. Even the clerks of the courses lie about the going, if they have watered to much and rain has come, to try and save face themselves. But the one good thing with times, is they usually give a good indication of what the going really is
That was just one example, go look at the all the race times on both days and compare them to standard and you'll see my point. I used the Hardwicke and the Duke Of Edinbrough because they where over the same trip
To highlight a problem with big sprint handicaps. Suppose horse A is capable of a 60sec 5f and horse B is capable of a 59sec 5f. All things being equal, Horse A will win by 1 sec (or 6l). However, horse B gets a bad start and loses 3l (half a sec) at the start. Not only that, it is boxed in and therefore can't make up any ground on the leaders. By the time the horse can get out it is a good 8l behind Horse A which has had a clear run. It is now impossible to win. This is where my unique real time software application One Step Ahead comes to the fore with in race betting. Get one step ahead NOW
3 races quicker than standard on the Friday, 3 races slower than standard. If all the races were much quicker than standard on friday and much slower on Saturday then I'd take your point but there isn't much in it. In fact later in the day on the Saturday the races got closer and closer to standard
