The Queen Anne looks the race of the week at Royal Ascot this year, with Solow taking on Able Friend, and Night Of Thunder thrown into the mix aswell. Solow has looked like a tank so far this year but his 2 G1 wins have been over further, and it always worries me more when a horse is going back in trip more than up. I know he's contested mile races previously but not in G1 company. I'm slightly suprised that they're not going for the Prince Of Wales with him rather than this. He also has no form with firm in the description, so I think you'll probably see better 6/4 shots if I'm honest. Rain could change my mind however. Able Friend has also looked like a tank out in Japan, but I'm not convinced he's been beating a lot. I've looked into the form of the beaten horses, and they all seem to run against one another regularly, and even when he's not there, other horses are beating them. He's never run on any track other than Sha Tin either, a tight left handed track, so I could see him bombing on the straight track, much like Animal Kingdom did. It may pay to side with Night Of Thunder EW, he's around about 6/1 now, and atleast you know what your getting with him. He's not a superstar, but he generally runs his race, he seems to appreciate a strongly run straight mile, winning the Guineas and Lockinge, and going close on heavy ground in the QE2. So it's hard to see him out of the first 3. And with big question marks about the ground and the track for the big 2 I wouldn't be suprised to see him nick this. It would be interesting to here what everyone else's thoughts are on this race?
I think I'll go for a shock result and select Cougar Mountain ew 40/1 He ran some cracking races against the top sprinters last season. But looking at that lovely pedigree I would say he's a potential miler His first run over 8f this season was on soft so I'm ignoring that. His only other run was when at the rear and not getting a clear run when 5¾L behind Night Of Thunder on good ground. Arguably his best run was on Good to Firm for his sole win (won easily in a fast time). So I'm taking a chance that if he gets a sound surface and a clear run he can reverse placings with Night of Thunder and that will be enough to see off the two hotpots.
Solow for me, has looked like a class act this year. Night of Thunder is a good horse but when up against top top class he is found wanting and I think Solow is in that catagorie. Don't know much about Able Friend though
Difficult to judge Able Friend even when you see him. He's a real bruiser of a gelding and travels beautifully in his races (in HK by the way, don't think he's ever run in Japan). I saw his last race and though expected to win his biggest opponent went out like a light in the straight and was later reported to have heart flutters, so it was no contest. He looks class but it's difficult to gauge what he's beaten. Sha Tin is obviously tight (right handed by the way) but the straight is not as short as Chester. He may have run in straight races earlier in his career as the Sha Tin track has a straight 5f. He will not have a problem with firm ground.
Night of Thunder for me at 6/1. Straight mile ran brilliant in a good lockige and was gallant in defeat last year against Kingman. It's worth noting PP are money-back as a freebet if 2nd or 3rd which enhances taking the longer price on Night of Thunder over Solow who is a worthy favourite. Day one at Ascot is probably the best card of the entire flat season non-stop group one's!
Solow won the Prix Daniel Wildenstein (over a mile) on the Saturday of the Arc meeting in 2014 in a common canter. Admittedly that was a Group 2 race so the opposition was not the best milers in Europe. He seems perfectly capable of producing good performances over distances from a mile to a mile and three furlongs so I think that he is the best bet of the week at 7/4 as last year’s Guineas winner still has it all to prove (his one win since Newmarket being the Lockinge), so Able Friend is the one he has to beat. As of 7th June, Solow is rated 124 on the International Classifications, the same mark as Treve. Able Friend is rated 125 along with Golden Horn and Shared Belief (dirt) whilst American Pharoah (dirt) is top-rated on 128.
Great thing about Night Of Thunder is that he is definitely a Group1 horse and he will give us a great measure of those he runs against. Solow has looked top class from what I have seen and as pointed out already, the question marks will just be the quicker ground and the drop in distance.
Solow is my NAP of the meeting! Looks a very good thing indeed! This will be one of the last times he is on this side of Evens
On the International Classification, Able Friend is the best horse in the race by a pound. He has travelled half way around the planet whilst Solow will just be crossing the Channel. The big issue for both of them may be the straight course. I do not think that it will be the home team as Night Of Thunder is not listed in the International Classification top twenty horses in the World, so he has at least four pounds to find with Solow and five with Able Friend.
This sort of analysis baffles me. How can you claim he has 4 and 5 pounds to find when he hasn't raced against Able Friend or Solow. Ratings are nothing more than an opinion, they mean next to nothing in the grand scheme of things, especially in non handicap races. So to dismiss a horse based on someone else's opinion makes no sense to me at all
Forgive me Bustino for getting the destination and direction of Sha Tin wrong. I even watched a few of his races on YouTube, so not sure how I got my left and rights wrong
The beauty of the ratings Shergs is that when they actually race each other they just change the ratings
The podcast made some very interesting points re Able Friend this week chaps. Worth a listen. Ascot's straight mile is a huge departure from Sha Tin et al's tight turning ovals. Solow, on the other hand should be much more suited by it and represents my nap of the week.
This is Solow the last time he ran in a group race over a mile, at the end of last season. It was good ground in this G2, so on paper up there with the quickest ground he's ever run on, and he wins by half a length from a very average horse in Veda. Take a look through the whole field and it's a very average field, and he's had to work for the win. So I think 6/4 for the Queen Anne is a crazy price, particularly if firm is in the going description, as I can see him struggling for pace, and being taken off his feet. Even his form in the G1s this year over further hasn't been franked, with The Grey Gatsby finishing 4th in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, and Cirrus Des Aigles loosing a shoe. So I'm far from convinced he should be anywhere near 6/4 for this
The International Classification is an amalgamation of all the official handicapper’s ratings from around the World. At the end of the year, they get together and decide who the top horses in the World have been. It must be absolute rubbish because in 1981 they rated Shergar 140 so why should anybody pay any attention to official handicappers? According to the official BHA ratings, Night Of Thunder is rated 121, which is his best career rating. Those that think this year’s Lockinge Stakes was a good race clearly must be looking at Integral as the week’s banker as she was less than a length fourth in that blanket finish and is Even money to collect the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes on Wednesday for the second year. There are eight declared for the Queen Anne Stakes. If there is a non runner on the day, only each-way ante post punters will be getting anything back from Night Of Thunder.
The 140 Shergar was given is nonsense, he should have been rated much higher than that. To have the likes of Dancing Brave and Sea The Stars rated along side him, is a joke. Neither of those could win races as comfortably as Shergar could. He'd have blown the doors off either of those rivals! As far as the form of the Lockinge is concerned, no I don't think it was a particularly strong G1, but I'm not sold on either Able Friend or Solow as ideal horses for the Queen Anne. Solow doesn't have any G1 form over a mile, nor has he any form with firm in the going, whilst Able Friend is travelling half way across the world and is taking a massive step outside his comfort zone. I don't think Night Of Thunder would have been fully tuned up for the Lockinge either, so the fact he was still able to win is a big positive for him, as he was up against lots of race fit rivals. The Queen Anne would have always been his main target, so I'd expect to see a few more pounds of improvement from him. I wouldn't be suprised to see Toormore run a big race again aswell, and make it a Hannon 1-2
