The current view from Timeform, having highlighted Estidhkaar when 16/1 2000 Guineas: Fabre To Conquer English Territories Once Again please log in to view this image By Ben Fearnley -- published 28th April 2015 Ben Fearnley thinks this year's 2000 Guineas may prove to be better than it initially looks and recommends two bets for the first classic of the season. "The step up to a mile will be no issue for Gleneagles and there is no indication that he won’t train on, but his current price is simply too short considering what we’ve already discussed: default favourites rarely offer value." After being spoilt last year with Kingman and Australia in the 2000 Guineas, both excellent prospects that developed into true champions, many people have been quick to declare this year’s race a substandard renewal of the first classic of the season. Kingman went off 6/4 favourite last year and was the most recent in a long line of warm favourites for the Guineas, which includes the likes of Dawn Approach (11/8), Camelot (15/8), Frankel (1/2) and St Nicholas Abbey (Evens). This year, however, no individual horse has been able to stamp an authoritative mark on the Guineas market, and 9/4 favourite Gleneagles seemingly heads the pile by default, with the trials for the race presumed not to have provided a world-beater. Gleneagles doesn’t necessarily possess the same profile as a typical Aidan O’Brien Guineas contender in that he was relatively frequently raced at two, having six starts in total. This should not count against him though, as he was the winner of four of those six starts and was only denied a second Group 1 success in the stewards’ room. The step up to a mile will be no issue for Gleneagles and there is no indication that he won’t train on, but his current price is simply too short considering what we’ve already discussed: default favourites rarely offer value. Behind him in the market sits the supplemented Andre Fabre-trained Territories, who is closely matched with Gleneagles having been promoted to second over him in the aftermath of the Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp. Territories improved as expected by the step up to a mile when a very ready winner of the Prix De Fontainbleau (the traditional French 2000 Guineas trial) in his preparation for this. Trainer André Fabre has won both Guineas before and his charge represents a very interesting alternative to Gleneagles at 7/1. Newbury’s Greenham Stakes has recently been the strongest 2000 Guineas trial and, as we’ve already stated, we think it’s one of the strongest again this year. Muhaarar (earmarked for the French equivalent two weeks later) and Estidhkaar drew a long way clear of top two-year-old Ivawood and with the form looking just as strong as in recent years the runner-up holds an excellent chance in the Guineas, although by now he has probably found his place in the market. Intilaaq represents the same owner as Estidhkaar and was last seen storming clear of a competitive looking maiden field in some style on Greenham day. That performance was all the more taking given that it was just his second start and it was no surprise to see him supplemented, as he looks a Group horse already. We’re all guessing as to just how good Intilaaq could be, though the layers have been conservative in their estimates. If you’re looking for one at a bigger price, may we draw your attention to the fact that the resurgent Frankie Dettori has chosen to ride the twice-raced Moheet over Coventry and Morny winner The Wow Signal. Moheet was a wide-margin winner of a Salisbury maiden on his only start at two and went off a well-backed favourite for the Craven Stakes on his first start this season, where he shaped like the best horse, making late headway after being caught further back than ideal as Kool Kompany made all. His price of 25/1 could well underestimate him. The absence of the likes of a Frankel or Dawn Approach going in to this year’s Guineas may temper excitement slightly, but don’t forget that the 2009 renewal – the last year without a short-priced (under 2/1) favourite – was won by Sea The Stars. The 2015 renewal could just surprise, though you get the feeling that a win for either Territories or Moheet wouldn’t surprise respective connections one bit. It’s recommended that you get both onside. Recommended bets: Back Territories at 7/1 1pt Win Back Moheet at 25/1 0.5pt Win
I have just reposted this from the Greenham form post as it explains why I fancy my selection of Intilaaq. My other fancy is Elm Park and an Andre Fabre horse should of course always be respected when travelling across the channel. Intilaaq The best form on show at a mile this season so far was in the maiden that took place later on the Greenham card - if you can watch it via the link below please do it's contains a genuine whooooosh moment that gets your heart going. The horse is Intilaaq trained by Roger Varien. He travelled beautifully and made the pace and had everything behind (some well fancied horses) struggling to keep up. Hanagan asks him to stretch his legs just over a furlong out and he accelerates like a sprinter and wins 8 lengths going away. Time I questioned what I had seen at first as this was a maiden and did some homework the time was over 3 seconds faster than the Craven, 9 seconds faster than the group 2 betfred Mile at Sandown today, his time was only 100th of a second slower than Mister Bailey's Guineas record. When compared to the Lockinge Group 1 held at the same track only one horse in Rakti has won that race in a time faster than Intilaaq won in nearly fifty years, which was as far as I went back. The travesty is he is not in the Guineas as if he was I would have a serious bet - Someone has said he will go for the Derby and they instantly put him in at 16's. In my view they have no idea what they are talking about. This is a miler of class and his acceleration is not that of a Derby horse. If they are embarrassed about running inferior animals in the trails whilst someone never highlighted this one then get over it and wait for the classics to pass and show them all a clean pair of heels at Royal Ascot. This is a serious horse. http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...-tennis-championships-maiden-stakes-div-1-str
Time will tell what the form was worth Blue, but after reading your view above and rewatching the race several time, I got a nice slice of 14s e/w on Intilaaq before he was supplemented. I'm genuinely surprised to see 10s still freely available, although having said that, those at the top of the market have all stood their ground. Not sure what to make of the fact that Hanagan rides Estidhkaar - perhaps the fact that he came second in a decent looking Greenham (rather than winning a maiden) and is rated 19lbs above Intilaaq on official ratings. We do need to be careful when comparing times though - the Greenham was fast by 1.7 seconds (against standard) whereas Intilaaq's victory was fast by 0.51 seconds (admittedly over a furlong further). Interestingly, Ayaar won the 1 mile handicap on the Greenham card in a time that was 1.19 seconds faster than standard (so 0.68 seconds quicker than Intilaaq) but was carrying 10lbs less than Intilaaq, didn't make the running like Intilaaq did and, of course, is a seasoned handicapper whereas Intilaaq's run was only the 2nd of his career. It will be interesting to see what tactics they employ on the Hamdan horses, considering both of them went to the front in their Newbury races and tried to make all. Surely they won't be daft enough to get into a cut-throat battle for the lead in the first half of the race? They are drawn pretty far apart (6 and 11) and of those drawn high, it might fall to European Free Handicap winner Home Of The Brave and Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park to cut out the running, with plenty of closers waiting behind them. The race could well play out up the stands rails.
Fascinating fact re the time compared to Mister Bailey's. I wonder if the conditions were in Intilaaq's favour. Given it was only his second race, I assume he wasn't pushed too hard (can't view the race) and there is room for improvement. However one has to take on trust that he will act on the course. Trying to unravel this race on form is too difficult for me. Some have beaten each other, some are tackling a mile for the first time, some have their form on soft. Gleneagles has been first past the post in all his races but must be fully exposed by now (having had 6 races) and has not raced beyond 7f, mostly on firm ground. However he is by Galileo and his dam sire produced Giant's Causeway. There is plenty other in the pedigree to suggest the extra furlong will be no problem. His odds are too skinny in a Gns that looks fairly open but I think.he has to be the one to beat, even though his ability to act on the course also has to be taken on trust. It's a no bet race for me. I will be watching in the hope that a star emerges.
Gleneagles is wonderfully bred out of a mare who's a full-sister to Giant's Causeway, herself out of an Irish 1000G winner. I'm sure he's a good horse, but worried about AOB's form. He should stay 8f +. Fast times aren't everything. If they were people wouldn't rate Frankel. Intilaaq is an interesting runner but I've seen 12 length winners of that race in the past end up in Doncaster Class 2 handicaps. It was a funny day at Newbury. Didn't Arab Spring run a faster last 4f than most horses that day? My thinking at the moment is that if it rains I'd be on Elm Park. If it stays firm I'll be most interested in Ivawood, who has won twice at Newmarket and on good to firm. Good luck.
I'm on Elm Park already - if it rains I very much doubt he will be 10/1. If he doesn't run i'll go with Moheet - never been a fan of Frankie but I have done really well out of him riding at Newmarket
I agree comparing times is difficult but the comparison with the Lockinge winners over the same distance reads very well. Even if we take times aside however there are numerous traits that champions possess, for instance they must be able to travel, they must possess a turn of foot when asked and must be able to settle, however the most elusive and essential is to be able to quicken from a fast pace. This is what stood Frankel in a class of his own and was sadly what no one really tested from Kingman last year, as his opponents, often Hughsie, decided they would try and outsprint him from a slow pace for some obscure reason. This is what Intilaaq did however the pace was strong as he set it himself, we know this as everything behind is pushing away from a good way out and nothing much is finishing, yet from this strong pace he accelerates and puts 8 lengths going away at the post in the final furlong, and it is that which is most impressive. I am surprised Hanagan is not riding as for me Estikdaar will travel well but have zero in the final furlong. I am not saying Intilaaq will win as only a fool would do so about a horse only seen in a maiden, but what I am saying is he is the most unknown quantity and exciting prospect in the field and I cant wait to see him tested on Saturday. I think he must be ridden handy either from the front or just on the shoulder and he must kick early, if doing so he will take the finish from the more sprinter types. These tactics however will also apply to Elm Park, another very exciting horse. Intilaaq - Elm Park - Territories ....... Not sure of the order however.
Just read an article on the Racing Post website where Ryan Moore is criticising the changes to the stalls setup and race setup, in a bid to prevent the field splitting into 2 groups as seen last year. For this years race, the stalls will be up against the stands rail (so those drawn HIGH will be right on the rail) and there will be a cutaway at the 2 furlong marker. This will surely introduce a draw bias towards the high numbers? If you have a hold-up horse drawn high you are in dreamland.
This is a very open looking race and the more I look the more I notice some value and some strange prices. Elm Park 16-1 Surely if this wins at the price he is at present we will all shake our head as to how we didn't just make a fortune. This horse was superb in his last two runs, nothing got near him. Home of the Brave 33-1 Won the poorer of the trials but did so very well - now the draw has been kind this one could get the lead and be hard to peg back. Celestial Path 25-1 A little to find on form but Prescott does not throw darts at Classics unless he is pretty sure his aim is in. I have just had a small EW on this one.
When Gleneagles was a 7/4 shot a few weeks ago, I was very much against him at the prices. As whilst he had the best form he was not far enough clear to warrant being that short. However I see tonight that he is a 7/2 chance, and to me that is a fair price for the horse with the best form. He has winning form over the likes of Territories and Dutch Connection in G1 races, so I think he's worth backing at 7/2. I'm also going to have a bet on Intilaaq at 11/1, his form on paper doesn't read all that well, but he couldn't have been more impressive in his maiden victory. He ran very green when shaken up that day, so hopefully he has learnt enough from that run and will be ready to run a big race here. It may well come to soon for him but I think he is worth backing at that price, as he looked like he had the potential to be a serious horse at the highest level. Blueskys research about only Rakti from past Lockinge winners having a faster time than his maiden, is another strong positive for the form of his win
As a man with a history for getting the Guineas winners at big prices I simply have to put up my old ugly brute mate KOOL KOMPANY at 33/1
If I were forced to bet I would agree with you Shergs plus I would have also taken the 16s on Estidhkaar when advised by Timeform
Of the ones at big prices stick, I think your right Kool Kompany is the best value. The Craven is historically the main trial, so 33/1 looks a big price, especially when a lot of bookies are paying 4 places. I'm actually suprised Hughes has gone with Ivawood, as I wouldn't want to be siding with any horse that failed to win it's trial. I know Night Of Thunder was beat in it's trial and won last year, but that was a freak reversal of form with Kingman, and results between the pair before and after proved that.
I'm on Ol' Man River ante-post. Out of 1000 Guineas winner Finsceal Beo and by Montjeu. Won the Beresford Stakes on his last start as a 2yo and looking to emulate Sea The Stars in winning that race before going on to win the Newmarket classic.
Just a thought, if Hughes has the option and selects what looks to be one of the stables lesser chances, maybe the Hannon horses are not up to scratch this year.
Frankie has some eyecatching rides today so I've had a little e/w patent on 3 of them: 2.00 All Set To Go 14/1 2.30 Tangerine Trees 12/1 3.45 Moheet 16/1 Why not .................
