At the time of writing there are currently 8 horses who are best priced ‘Burlington Bertie’, 100/30, or shorter to win at the Festival. The big question is though what will their SPs be??? Will they be longer, shorter or stay the same come ‘tapes up’ and when will value, if any, exist. Let’s consider the evidence shall we. This isn’t so much a thread about whether these ‘shorties’ will win but what will happen to their odds between now and the old off. Supreme Novices, Douvan 15/8 – most years there seems to be a plunge horse in the meeting opener as punters look to get the fixture off to a flyer. In a race lacking much strength in depth I’d imagine that will be Douvan this term and can only see him shortening. SP prediction 5/4. Arkle, Un De Sceaux 4/6 – you could say a lot will depend on Douvan scoring as many Mullins opening day doubles and accumulators will be either still in running or in tatters. Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig started at 8/11 and 8/15 respectively when they won this and as he appears similarly dominant. Un De Sceaux should be roughly the same price. Don’t think he will contract hugely though. SP prediction 8/13. Champion Hurdle, Faugheen 5/4 – again the Mullins multiples element must apply and this race could cut up to something like 7 or 8 runners. Faugheen has been this price for a while now and I can’t see much movement between now and the off. SP prediction 5/4. Mares Hurdle, Annie Power 4/6 – yet another that will be effected by the Mullins multiple angle. Injury has ruled out Aurore D’Estruval and Paddy’s full sister shortened again yesterday. Ridiculous that she’s even in such a moderate heat rather than the Champion or World Hurdles – it’s akin to The Arsenal announcing that next season that won’t contest the Premier League but League 2. Should shorten again in a race lacking any depth. SP prediction 8/15. Champion Chase, Sprinter Sacre 100/30 – Sire De Grugy’s win at the weekend has propelled him up the betting and it wouldn’t surprise me if Gary Moore’s charge ultimately started favourite. I’m on Sprinter’s side as he’s trained by a man with a brilliant brain and ‘magic hands’ who can achieve anything. But the average Joe may see him as having too many barriers to overcome. SP prediction 4/1. JLT Novices Chase, Vautour 5/2 – Loved this horse over hurdles but he looks to have a tough assignment here against Ptit Zig and Apache Stronghold. Can see the latter pair shortening slightly and Vautour lengthening as a result. SP prediction 100/30. Triumph Hurdle, Peace & Co 5/2 – have been impressed by him so far but this is a very tough race to win with many very decent types set to line up. I think this one is very good but he will have to be to oblige. There is also the worry that at Cheltenham last time he didn’t increase his advantage over Karezak from the run to the last to the winning line. SP prediction 4/1. Cheltenham Gold Cup, Silviniaco Conti 100/30 – you could say that on ratings and overall form he deserves to be much, much shorter however his formline in this race (-F4) is undoubtedly holding back his price. There is usually a plunge horse in this though and in what looks overall a poor field you can’t imagine it being anything but Silviniaco Conti. SP prediction 11/8. Do you agree?!? Can you see any major market moves between now and the ‘off’???
I have to disagree with you about SS. Can defo see him shortening, punters on day will be betting on the 'name' and prestige and hoping the machine can regain his old glory See him going off around 5/2, even 2/1 I can foresee
As a rule of thumb I would suggest not taking any prices the week before the festival. The best time to bet is about 9am on race day, as the bookies have there big price war, and there will always be a firm that will take a big stand against each fancied runner. I think the only horse who's price is fair to predict will be Douvan as the results of favourites will affect all the others. Not just the Mullins multiple angle, but if say most favourites win on Tuesday, punters will have more money to go to war with on Wednesday, so the favourites for Wednesday will shorten up. If they all lose Tuesday the bookies will be the ones with the money, so they'll likely be more generous with there odds, to try to tempt punters into parting with more money, Douvan is 7/4 now but I think you'll get bigger on Tuesday morning, id expect to see atleast 2/1. I think though the SP will end up 7/4. I'd be amazed if it goes as short as 5/4. The others are impossible to predict, as results will decide there prices
Very good topic Barney. It's unusual position this year because of Willie's dominance so I think you're right to point out that all the doubles, trebles and accumulators will have a massive impact on the markets. Supreme Novices Douvan is being talked up like an absolute good thing by connections. He's got almost nothing to beat and looks like an Irish banker. You'd expect it to get punted very heavily but it's countered by being the first race of the Festival and bookies are just as likely going to be happy to take it on as they are likely to run scared. Fav's don't have a good record in the race so a lot will dangle a carrot i think. Even if Douvan wins the cash is tied up in their accounts for the week. 6/4 but i expect something like 5/2 in the morning. Arkle Unbeatable barring a fall. Accumulators may be rolling. 4/11 Champion Hurdle If the first two go in then you're looking at 4/5. If one or both fails then you're looking at 2/1. Mares Hurdle Bookies always tried to take Quevega on at the start of the day even though they knew she was best fresh. Annie doesn't have the record so i expect someone will offer evens at the start of the day. If the other three have won she'll be 1/2. I think the other three probably will have won so 1/2 QMCC Bookies have got to take Sprinter on. SDG was mighty impressive at the weekend. Champagne Fever will have the Irish support and Dodging Bullets has done the business at the top tier all season. Even Mr Mole was terrific last time out and will have the champ on board. Very open market. 4/1 Sprinter. JLT Vautour is one of my bankers of the week unless i hear some negative vibes from Rich Ricci at Leeds Town Hall Cheltenham Preview next week. Done it before at Cheltenham. Ruby on board. Willie trains. Casual punters will know the name and will back it again because he did them a favour last season. 6/4 Triumph Peace and Co 3/1. I'll be taking him on. Gold Cup Silviniaco Conti has failed twice at Cheltenham and doesn't stay the trip round this course. Every bookie in the land will want him in their satchel come the off. Although a terrific jockey he's not well known to the once a year betting public. Ruby will be backed, McCoy will be backed. I think his SP depends on how well Nicholls has done in the week but if he goes as I expect i think there'll be a drift to 4/1.
As is the norm this close to the week we'll get far better prices on the day. My guesses: Douvan- 11/4 on morning, SP 2/1 UDS- 4/6 on morning, SP 4/7 Faugheen- 9/4 on morning, SP 11/8 Annie Power- 10/11 on morning, SP 4/6 Sprinter Sacre- 5/1 on morning, SP- 3/1 Vautour- 4/1 on morning, SP- 5/2 Peace & Co- 4/1 on morning, SP- 5/2 Silvi Conti- 6/1 on morning, SP- 3/1 Really expect all the above bar Douvan, UDS and Annie to be much bigger than they are now. The weakness of opposition against these 3 means the bookies don't have much quality running for them in what are shallow fields, qualitywise (and possibly numerically). The other races have reasonable depth, maybe not in quality in some (QM & GC) but numerically. The Truimph looks really good on paper from a quality perspective and I can see Hargram shortening up considerably against P & Co. In fact you could make a reasonable case for 4 or 5 winning it. P & Co will certainly be attractive odds on the morning, if you fancy him. Imagine if you'd taken the 5/4 some were offering immediately after he beat Karezak. Now THAT was the mother of pisstakes!
Bob/Beefy 4/1 and 6/1 available re Silvinanco on the day?!? I’d be surprised if he opened any bigger than 3’s and we could then see a momumental plunge on him from that point on. Similar happened last year with Bobs Worth who started at a frankly ridiculous 6/4 after sustained support. Plus up to that point Mr Henderson had not had a great meeting. Just the one winner after 3 and a half days.
I remember when I first started getting into racing and gambling. I went into William Hill a few days before Cheltenham, and had a yankee on the 4 championship races, taking prices on every selection. Every single one of those horses I backed SP was a lot bigger, and 3 of the 4 won so it cost me quite abit of cash taking the prices. From that day I learnt my lesson, that the bookies prices in the build up are just intended for the mug punters
Bobs Worth had won the Gold Cup though Barney. Casual punters knew the name. They don't know Silviniaco Conti.
Was Bobs Worths price really that bad though when you take everything into consideration. 6/4 for a horse that was 3 from 3 at the festival, and was the reigning Gold Cup winner. He was also a 9 years old, which is considered by many including myself as the peak age for a Gold Cup contender. The field was up there as one of the weakest ever Gold Cup fields in recent times. So Bobs Worth really had very little to beat. The race turned out that way in the end, with like 6 horses all with big chances going to the last, it was like the finish of a 25 runner 2 mile handicap. Bobs worth didn't show the form of the year before unfortunately, so it's easy to say after the event 6/4 was to short, but if he had he'd of won.
Douvan- 5/2 on morning, SP 7/4 The bookies will look to take him on, the Irish will plunge UDS- 4/6 on morning, SP 1/2 Round 2 of the bookies v the irish, whichever way the first round has gone the defeated will want to get straight back with a telling blow Faugheen- 2/1 on morning, SP 5/4 Depends on the first two, if they both win could go odds on Annie Power- 4/5 on morning, SP 1/2 Don't think they will be daft enough to push her to evens like the used to with Quevega Sprinter Sacre- 9/2 on morning, SP- 5/2 The name will tempt people to back Sprinter just like they did with Big Bucks last year Vautour- 7/2 on morning, SP- 2/1 If Mullins has an excellent first 2 days a lot of acca's will be riding on so could start even shorter Peace & Co- 10/3 on morning, SP- 3/1 Can see Peace & Co being the weeks big drifter Conti- 9/2 on morning, SP- 5/2 Think he is the most likely winner in a weak renewal, one for the punters to get money back
If you could see into the future and see the SP of Annie Power, then you would have a good idea of the results of the 3 G1s before hand. As far as her not being as big as Evens like Quevega, why not? I feel the reason Quevega went off at Evens was because she never had a run before the festival, so it was always looked upon as a negative by some. Annie Power though is the same this year, but the difference with her is that she's never proven she can come to the festival and win without having a run. I actually think Annie Power is a more talented mare than even Quevega but the long break is a slight concern. If she's in good shape she will win with ease though
Quevega was notoriously difficult to train and therefore the bookies knew she was fragile. Annie Power isn't she's just had one injury, she has been to the well more often and has proven she is more robust
