It is a fact that since Neil has been here we have won five, drawn one and lost one. 17 points in seven games is 2.18 points per game. At the same rate we would accrue a further 37 points for a grand total of 90. This is not a prediction by me, but a pointer to what has been happening. In the same space of seven games, Middlesboro also have 17, Derby 16, Watford 15, Bournemouth 11 and Ipsquit just 10. It would appear from these facts that a couple of teams are beginning g to feel the pace. The Derby and Middlesboro figures went back one match day further to allow for their cup exploits.
Rob you certainly have faith in our new management team and our players and I admire your positivity. . I've already blocked off May 25th!!!!
It's a bit early for Maths but this looks wrong to me. Winning 5, drawing 1 = 16 points not 17. Neither 16 or 17 points is 2.18 points per game (16 points is 2.29) 2.29 x 15 gives 34 more points, which would give us 87.
If we were at 17 points per7 games, goldeneadie's predictions would be right. But the point stands - if we get 87 points, as long as neither of the losses is against Derby or Middlesbrough, we'll win the league.
The 7 games analysis is skewed because 4 of the games were at home. To balance that, you'd have to add the Reading game or drop the Wolves result. Of the remaining games, however, 8 are away and only 7 at home which adds further unreliability to the projection.
too many 'ifs' and 'buts' yet as there is a long way to go. There will be some odd results for all teams in the top 6/8 for the rest of the season so anything can happen. We are the outside favorites out of the top 6 for automatics at the moment but that can change dramatically if results go our way over the next 3 games. I wouldn't bet on automatics yet but I can live in hope.
No harm in hoping, Jungle! The next 3 matches should give us a much better idea of where we might end up as we'll then have 10 matches to base it upon.
But not really skewed as AN had no idea what his playing staff were capable of for several matches so went on instinct rather than knowledge for , probably the first three matches.
Yes I agree with you, it is a big ask from here to get one of the automatic slots and we are in the hands of others to a great extent. I also agree that any club below Wolves (e.g. Blackburn) are too far adrift on the same basis.
This is sort of true - no pre-season to get to grips with how he wants his team to play, who is best suited to what role, style of play, finding out about their characters and god knows what else! I think Bournemouth away almost doesn't count either as he didn't select the side, though there is no doubting his impact in the second half was a positive one and influenced the result. I tend to think things start to really take shape ten games into a reign and we'll have a better grasp on how things will pan out because there will inevitably be teething issues, so I think Rick has a point about it not being enough matches as these things do get skewed by standard of opponent/home and away games etc., not to mention some managers do get a 'bounce'. But its all been very encouraging so far and I don't see this as a 'bounce'. Brentford aside (which was a disaster, partly to do with lack of midfield personnel, partly down to playing too direct to Jerome and partly down to Brentford having a stormer - it all just came together into one big mess), I don't think we could have hoped for much more in terms of performances and results. Yes, we let in a few sloppy goals at Charlton and against Cardiff - but that's a by-product of having been hopeless defensively all season. You don't just iron these issues out in a few weeks, but actually we've already had three clean sheets. I think having Bassong back makes such a difference though. He's a class act. The main thing is you can see the players are now working hard for the manager and for one another. They weren't before. And it was costing us, no matter how good they are as individuals. We weren't playing as a cohesive unit, a team. We are now. It's a massive 8 days coming up but we are in fine fettle going into it. How we come out of it may well shape the Alex Neil regime.
Not sure I quite follow the "as long as we beat Derby and Boro at home we'll win the league" line of thought!
Great news. So we need to beat Derby at home and make three points up on them. The tough one is going to be beating Middlesbrough at home and making up three points plus whatever they get with their game in hand.
Now that can't be denied... We are more than capable of making up six points over the remaining games. Especially as yet again when a team has a chance to out some daylight between themselves and other challengers, they seem to fall short. Derby are obviously suffering without Chrissy and a cup hangover. Bournemouth similar. Now all I need is someone to tell me who Boro's key player is and I'll dig out my voodoo doll... The one extra missing on this thread is that (the Brentford game aside...) we are the one team who I am confident can cope with quite a few injuries.
