One week to go until the Kempton showpiece and 29 remain declared - although Nicky Henderson has already ruled out one of those. Simonsig will not be ready and misses the race. The betting market has it largely between the main protagonists from last year's race plus Willie Mullins' Champagne Fever. Current 5/2 favourite is Paul Nicholls' defending champion Silviniaco Conti, who put a poor seasonal reappearance in the Charlie Hall firmly behind him at Haydock. Silviniaco Conti won the Betfair Chase in convincing fashion from horses who may reoppose on Boxing Day - Menorah, Dynaste and Cue Card - and it is difficult to see any of those turning the form around, especially given the likely soft ground. The first-time cheekpieces certainly seemed to do the trick at Haydock and one assumes the headgear will stay on at Kempton. Silviniaco Conti is a worthy favourite and his trainer clearly knows what is required to win this after the wonderful exploits of Kauto Star. Next in the betting at around 3/1 is Willie Mullins' second season chaser, Champagne Fever, who showed his well-being by hacking up at Clonmel on seasonal debut. I'm sure track, trip and going will prove no problem to the flying grey but, as Willie Mullins himself has already said, there is a worry that this is not his time of year (beaten at Leopardstown last Christmas, and at Naas the year before). I'm not sure I would buy into that theory - he was worried out of it by Defy Logic as a novice chaser last year, and the year before he just ran no sort of race at all. I think Willie might be erring on the side of caution somewhat unnecessarily, but clearly the bookies are taking few chances with his price. The third favourite at 7/1 is another Paul Nicholls horse, Al Ferof, who bounced right back to his best to take the Amlin Chase at Ascot for the second time on his seasonal debut. He goes particularly well for Ruby, who definitely won't be riding him this time around, so jockey bookings will be interesting. Noel Fehily gets on really well with SC - I assume he stays on board next week - so Al Ferof would appear to be Sam Twiston-Davies' mount, and this could be a match made in heaven. He will need to get Al Ferof in a good jumping rhythm and have him prominent towards the 4th from last fence at the end of the back straight - that is where the King George is usually won and lost. A horse who can kick on from that fence and last home is usually hard to pass (the famous exception being Cue Card last year). We then have Cue Card (not the same horse without Joe Tizzard), Menorah (surely held by SC on Haydock running?) and Dynaste (surely the Ryanair is his trip - looks well held at this distance) - none of whom I can see winning - before we get into an interesting bracket of "2nd tier" chasers, who may or may not run. Road To Riches won the JN Wine in fine style at Down Royal but also has an entry in the Lexus Chase; Johns Spirit has never won at 3 miles and looks a Cheltenham specialist, but has earned a crack at a Grade 1; Holywell has done nothing but disappoint this season; Boston Bob will relish the trip but is also entered in the Lexus; Ma Filleule is another who has disappointed thus far, despite her sex allowance; Wishfull Thinking is surely better over shorter; Taquin De Seuil is competing with stablemate Holywell for the award of "most disappointing horse of the season so far". I think we will see a pretty small field this year and it does look to be between the top 4 or 5 in the market. As Silviniaco Conti is a horse I NEVER get right (back him and he loses, oppose him and he wins) so I think Champagne Fever will be carrying my few Euros this time around. Cue another victory for Silviniaco Contil ...................................
My first time at Kempton for boxing day and I am hoping to see Champagne Fever winning for the Irish, I think he is the real deal and I think he can demolish the field if he gets into the right rhythm early. Hope the ground isn't dead, if its nice ground I think we could see something a wee bit special. Al Ferof for me is the main danger. A grey day?
Like Oddy I cant ever get Conti right, I won't be backing him as he never wins when I do but I will be cheering him home...COME ON CONTI
Willie Mullins doesn't seem too confident about its chances from what I've read but since when can you trust a trainer!
Cue Card 10/1 is the bet Couldnt have him in a million years for his first two races and perfectly understandable the way he ran considering his physical situation since the King George last year. Despite his sketchy jumping at Haydock last time, which he has always been capable of, I seen enough to suggest he will be right for Kempton. Cue Card and Conti are above the rest of the field and I expect it to be between them again. Ive already got 8/1 Conti and while Cue Card is not a horse im a fan of, he cant be ignored now at 10/1 and has every chance if the ground is better than last year. This is jump racing remember, form can and will be left well behind, he should be getting close to full fitness now after the two runs and the ability is still there.
IF Daryl Jacob was not riding, I'd be all over him for this. He will strip fitter for his two runs and hopefully any freshness will be gone now so he can put in a rhythmical round of jumping, if Daryl Jacob allows him. The Tizzards said his injury last year was sustained in the King George, which could explain his finish, although the pace he went that day it is no disgrace to be slightly outstayed on the run in by a good stayer in Conti. Al Ferof looked back to his best at Ascot and if Sam Twister can deliver a Ruby walsh style ride, caressing him round, then he has every chance. He DOES stay and WILL run in the Gold Cup this year, hopefully proving wrong the complete nonsense from his trainer last year when the horse simply was never right, staying on far too late in the day in the Ryanair just to prove a point
33/1 is an insult to wishful thinking . I thought he was a gold cup horse a couple of years ago . He likes it right handed. I'm on ew
I'm not sure who I will punt on but Champagne Fever won't be remotely considered. Pulls too hard before his stamina and ability are even considered.
Turftrax report soft, good-soft in places at Kempton (measured last Friday) and the weather forecast is dry right through to Friday. I guess that means we will be looking at Good-Soft ground at worst?? I think only Silviniaco Conti would really LIKE soft ground, but he won't mind it a bit livelier. Should be a very fair race in terms of the going, no extremes I wonder what the Whateleys are up to with the 2 entries? Wishfull Thinking has only been this sort of distance once in his career (2nd to Unioniste at Aintree conceding 4lbs) but both he and Menorah have been in cracking form this season. Barry Geraghty riding Wishfull Thinking certainly catches the eye and given Hobbs form you'd expect both his horses to be thereabouts. Still nowhere nearer picking a horse to bet on. I think your guys pessimism around Champagne Fever is unfounded, but his price is very skinny and I'd be happier with some of the 7/1 Boris is offering. Cue Card camp sounding bullish, Nicholls saying little at the moment, which is the sign that he means business. Hmmmmmm.
Silvi needs a bog round Kempton and if he doesn't get that he'll get done. Not sure who by though! Think the prices at the minute don't appeal much tbh...Cue Card though, no chance
I can only see one winner of this, and so can the markets. Silviniaco Conti will pay for Christmas, and though a bit of rain would be welcome, he's won on all sorts of going.
I was hoping Taquin De Seuil was going to line up in this, perform well and give me some semblance of hope for my antepost Gold Cup voucher. Sadly I've got more chance of Santa delivering Rebecca Curtis into my living room on Xmas morning wearing nothing more than a smile. As for the remaining line up it's one to watch for me. I'll be supporting Al Ferof as the owner lives in sunny Shropshire but not with hard earned.
Champagne Fever- 4/1 Looks like I'm in the few to thing this horse is the real deal and is a future gold cup horse(hoping it's this yr as I have him 16/1 come march) He does not have to be ridden from the front according to Mullins and I can see Ruby sitting out the back he will like a fast pace, which he should get if Conti applies the same tactics as in the betfair to try and run out the errors of Cue Card which he will so that CC down, Conti will not have he pace come the run in, Dynaste is not a 3m horse likewise Menorah, Al Ferof is the main danger but just feel he will lack something when push comes to shove can't put my finger on ot but just can't see him winning. Now Champagne Fever is slick, can jump and has the speed, he will be waited by Ruby sitting right out the back wthen be sought after the leaders then take level with them 2 out 1 out jump in the lead then power to the line! And silence his critics over his apparent lack of stamina ! I have it all planned out lol pby of it was that easy bit I do feel he will be extremely hard to beat
