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Indicators that point out that Saints are the "real deal"

Discussion in 'Southampton' started by Saints_Alive, Jan 20, 2015.

  1. Clem Fandango

    Clem Fandango Well-Known Member

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    I'm slightly embarrassed to say I support Saints now. This is why I really only discuss football with my friends who knew me when we were PL relegation fodder every season :emoticon-0102-bigsm
     
    #21
  2. SaintStu

    SaintStu Well-Known Member

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    Try looking at the alternative Premier league discussion on the readandwhitekop forum. Some of them are starting to believe that we are in the top 4 now.
     
    #22
  3. hotbovril

    hotbovril Well-Known Member

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    And what a tremendous thread it is anyway.
     
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  4. James G

    James G Well-Known Member

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    "The most important target is, of course, the number of points required. On average, the team finishing fourth has earned 67.4 points, at a rate of 1.77 per game; as we currently average 1.91 points per game we're ahead of the curve. The required total has increased to around 70+ since Everton took 4th but the numbers show in a more competitive season (more big clubs getting turned over) that number decreases substantially. This season so far 69+ looks like enough but 71 takes us to a 96% chance of 4th.

    In goalscoring, as is blatantly obvious, we could do with more. We are currently just behind the average requirement; based on form so far (2.18 home, 1.18 away), we will finish with 61 goals in the ‘for’ column on the league table, and teams finishing fourth have averaged 63 in the past.

    Although we are scoring below the average required amount we have scored two-or-more in 45% of our games compared to a fourth place target of 47%. Hopefully the return of Rodriguez and Mane will improve this further and open the floodgates in attack against weaker sides.

    Defensively, of course we shine. There's ten clean sheets so far, which means we have shut out opponents in 45% of games. The team finishing fourth has on average managed this in 36% of their games. So far, so good, this should also ease poor statistical representation of our low goal rate. We have conceded 0.73 goals per game against an average 4th place target of 1.01. Looking very lean there, but we need Morgan, Wanyama and Toby back to continue this frugality."

    Posted this on the other thread, but we compare favourably so far to all the average numbers for clubs that make the top four in the Premiership. Outperforming on points per game, clean sheets, goals conceded and only slightly off average in goalscoring.
     
    #24
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  5. hotbovril

    hotbovril Well-Known Member

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    Lovely numbers but the trouble is, they only count for anything in previous seasons, not this one. I look at it like this - can we score within one point of what Man United score in the remaining fixtures, within two points of Arsenal, within four points of Spurs and within six points of Liverpool. Somehow it just seems more challenging when you put it like that!

    However, to completely contradict myself, the best indicator of the likelihood of that is the current league table. This of course suggests that those teams behind us are the ones that need to raise their games.

    To summarise, I'm ambivalent. I'm loving every match and hating every minute too.
     
    #25
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  6. Trini saint

    Trini saint Member

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    Haha...even further away than that.... Trinidad . Trinis are EPL crazy with everyone following either Man U,Arsenal ,Chelsea ,Liverpool or Spurs...not many Man city and most of the liverpool and spurs supporters are in their 40's/50's.Most people my age(mid 30's) follow either Man U or arsenal,main reasons sited being Dwight yorke at Man U and most people here have relatives in london,hence the gooner affiliation.....but the vast majority are now certainly aware of Southampton and how good we are,many hoping we make it to the promised land....only ever met 2 other saints fans here and both were expats.
     
    #26
  7. Clem Fandango

    Clem Fandango Well-Known Member

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    TriniSaint... Are you an expat or Trinidad born? If the latter, what are your reasons for supporting Saints?
     
    #27
  8. tomw24

    tomw24 Well-Known Member
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    #28
  9. TheSecondStain

    TheSecondStain Needs an early night

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    I do wish these people would hold their bloody phones sideways when recording, then we'd get a full screen [picky bleeder smiley]. :rolleyes:
     
    #29
  10. Trini saint

    Trini saint Member

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    I born in winchester,grew up in horton heath and went to durley primary school. Family moved to Trinidad in 88/89 when i was 11.
    My mother was Trinidadian ,she moved to England in the 60's to go to nursing college and met my old man in south east london,my old man used to be a season ticket holder for selhurst pk.(no glory seekers in our household).
    Strange thing is ,is that growing up my dad played rugby(Eastleigh RFC) and never took me to watch any football in the 80's(last match he went to was at the dell saints v palace in a pre season game some time in the 70's),so i kind of grew up not really supporting any team other than england,i really only started to identify with Southampton when we moved across the atlantic,new place, new people/friends and everyone asks where you are from and obviously if you follow SAINTS...so i kind of evolved into a saints fan...my sister moved back 12 years ago and lives in chandlers ford,i get across every year and try to arrange my holidays to squeeze in a saints match.
     
    #30
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  11. TheSecondStain

    TheSecondStain Needs an early night

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    Great story. Love the various ways people evolve into being Saints fans. Some tenuous, some direct.
     
    #31
  12. Schad

    Schad Well-Known Member

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    Same; I've had to point one person to my profile on here, as the join date is about the easiest way to convince people that I didn't start supporting Saints last Thursday.
     
    #32
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  13. TheSecondStain

    TheSecondStain Needs an early night

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    If forums had existed that long ago, my join date would have been 20th August 1966. Glory hunter me. Saints first ever game in the Top Division. Got the taste for watching football after seeing the World Cup. I'd been playing it since I could walk.
     
    #33
  14. ChilcoSaint

    ChilcoSaint What a disgrace
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    As previously discussed, that was also my first taste of the "real thing" after playing football as a kid and watching on TV on the rare occasions it was possible. I was only thinking the other day that 20 August 2016 will mark 50 years since Saints joined the top table for the first time. Hopefully the club will mark the occasion in a special way, apart from parading the Champions League and Premier League trophies around the city of course.
     
    #34
  15. TheSecondStain

    TheSecondStain Needs an early night

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    What a very cheery thought..!
     
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  16. Saints_Alive

    Saints_Alive Well-Known Member

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    The more I think about it, the more Saints remind me of Cloughie's Forest side from the late 70s, early 80s. A medium sized provincial club with a squad with few top stars names, but with a strong team ethos and spirit. A very organised team that concede few goals and were masters of how to get results away from home.
     
    #36
  17. ImpSaint

    ImpSaint Well-Known Member

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    We have moved back up to second in that alternative table so we are now on course for runners up. I still think 4th will be around the 67 point mark this season. L'Arsenal, Tottingham PochSpurs, ManYou and ****Pool still have some slip ups to make.

    The only worry really is how close they are despite how **** they've been this season.
     
    #37
  18. fran-MLs little camera

    fran-MLs little camera Well-Known Member

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    Because of that awful run we had :(
     
    #38
  19. ImpSaint

    ImpSaint Well-Known Member

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    #39
  20. Dellustrator

    Dellustrator Member

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    I'm over the moon with what Saints are doing, but I'd add there's nothing wrong with a dash of pessimism - it's simply an emotional buffer against the realistic notion that something extraordinary might not actually come to pass. Only natural. However I feel certain that unless there is some disaster among personnel high up in the club, we will qualify for the CL within the next 5 seasons, and that's good enough for me. :)
     
    #40

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