Steeplechasing's "Blue Riband" event, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, is run over 3 miles and 2.5 furlongs on the Friday of the Cheltenham festival. There are 22 fences to be jumped during the race which covers just over 2 circuits of the new course. please log in to view this image To win the Cheltenham Gold Cup a horse needs to find the perfect blend of athleticism, speed and stamina and bring their "A" game to a track whose undulations make this a unique test of a steeplechaser. Whilst there have been a number of multiple winners of the race down the years, Golden Miller's five triumphs between 1932 and 1936 make him the most successful horse in the history of the race. Cottage Rake (1948-50), Arkle (1964-66) and Best Mate (2002-04) were all triple winners and the list of other winner reads like a "who's who" of National Hunt racing - Kauto Star, Denman, Desert Orchid, Dawn Run, L'Escargot, Fort Leney and Mill House to mention but a few. So whose turn will it be on Friday, March 13th, 2015? After the clutch of big races over the festive period, the market is beginning to take shape and is currently headed by Paul Nicholls' Silviniaco Conti, who followed up his win in Haydock's Betfair Chase with an authoritative display at Kempton Park on Boxing Day to land his 2nd King George. 3/1 is the best price around at the moment and Noel Fehily's mount is likely to head straight to Cheltenham without a prep run. One could argue that Silviniaco Conti has had his chance in previous Gold Cups, travelling well when falling at the 3rd last in 2013, and leading them over the final fence in 2014 before running around up the hill and allowing others to pass him: Next in the betting at a best-priced 10/1 is Noel Meade's Road To Riches, who has progressed from winning the Galway Plate over the summer to take a Grade 2 and 2 Grade 1s (JN Wine and Lexus) for Gigginstown. His Lexus victory in particular, where he battled back after the last to defeat On His Own and Sam Winner, marks him as a serious Gold Cup challenger. His ability to handle Cheltenham needs to be taken on trust, but he is a well-balanced horse and has handled a good variety of tracks so far in his career. He has only run outside Ireland the once, when well beaten behind At Fishers Cross at Aintree, although that was as a novice hurdler so can be forgiven. In terms of Grade 1 winning performances this season, Silviniaco Conti and Road To Riches have been the dominant staying chasers, but this is by no means a 2 horse race. Reigning champion Lord Windemere (best price 16/1) is being bought along very patiently by Jim Culloty and will be cherry-ripe in March; Hennessy winner Many Clouds (best price 16/1) has been very impressive and remains unexposed; Some of last year's main protagonists such as On His Own, Bobs Worth and The Giant Bolster will be thereabouts again and there are a number of second-season chasers starting to knock on the door - most notably Sam Winner, Smad Place and Carlingford Lough. Unfortunately for my ante post dabble, Don Cossack looks to be heading to his owner's race . Latest odds from oddschecker can be found here
I really like Road to Riches but it seems a plodder that stays 4 miles is as likely to win this race nowadays as a classy 3 miler. It's the biggest chase of the year but for me, it's not even the biggest chase of the week.
Never been 1 to be keen on Silv Conti at Cheltenham and especially at current odds, although saying that i think he should have won last year but something spooked him up the hill. This year is about 2nd season chasers for me. Taquin Du Seuil for me is a horse of the highest quality, he was impressive without winning on fast ground behind Menorah on his first attempt at 3 miles and stayed on nicely, soft or good/soft would be perfect for him. You can scrub his last run where he didnt jump a twig, Jonjos horses have been under a shadow for 2 months now and aslong as he can get him fit for Cheltenham he is no 50/1 shot. I was very impressed with how Carlingford Lough travelled in the Lexus on his seasonal debut and only got tired when they turned for him. That was up against seasoned grade 1 chasers and he jumped much better although there is still improvement required if he is to win at Cheltenham. Another who should easily out run his current 33/1 odds.
Conti will turn this into a precession, different animal with the cheek pieces fitted. 2013 he was cruising along and last year I think Fehily was worried about Bob's Worth so kicked early to try to get away from him. Conti is the best 3 mile chaser around and Fehily will know that this year, no need to worry about everyone else just lead and turn the screw before powering away up the hill. 3/1 is a big price, should be 2/1 maximum in my book
Conti is a worthy favourite, but there's no value in the price. Lord Windermere, on the otherhand, continues to be underestimated and too readily dismissed. His run in the Lexus was disappointing even if you take the view that he's really not a heavy ground midwinter horse, but it'll be a different story in March. 16/1 wouldn't be the worst ante-post value in the world. I gave up ante-post betting some time ago, but I expect to be weighing up his e/w value on the day.
Agree that Silviniaco Conti is a worthy favourite on his form this year, winning the Lancashire Chase and the King George, but his Cheltenham form is a worry. Road To Riches was a good winner of the Lexus Chase and could be a danger. I would rule out last year's winner either. Lord Windermere may not have the best form away from Cheltenham but has won at the Festival in the last two years in the RSA Chase in 2013 and the Gold cup in 2014 and course form is always a big plus come March.
Conti just never cease to amaze people. I think he didn't reach his max potential yet. please log in to view this image
Conti is a very good horse, but 3/1 for the Gold Cup? I'm not so certain. He dictated around Kempton but he is vulnerable at Cheltenham. Last years race is still hard to understand in the way he and Bobs Worth finished, wobbling around up the hill, but there is definitely a potential improver to come. Many Clouds is a major price. He is unfashionable but he jumps and he stays. He defeated the early Gold Cup fav (Hollywell) and then was a good winner of a Hennessey. Bobs Worth won the Hennessey before a Gold Cup and this is one to take seriously. Ignore anything that Lord Windermere does in soft ground in Ireland in the winter. The only time that matters is Cheltenham in March. Jim Culloty will prove to be a master of getting horses ready for the festival, and I always think Oscar offspring are better on spring ground. He will need luck in running again but there is no reason why he cannot race more handily in mid division either. Superb jumper and will be runnning on yet again. Put a line through his Irish form.
Has anything been said about the updated plans for Champagne Fever? To me, his run in the King George didn't prove he couldn't stay three miles. He ran well and to me it was the poor state of the ground that found him out in the end and not the trip. We all know how much better he is on spring ground and at Cheltenham. He has drifted to 25/1 and i think if he turns up in this then he must have a major chance. I can't be having Silviniaco Conti at 3/1. There are enough doubts about him for me. He practically walked over the line in the race last year. As for the others, Holywell just isn't good enough to win a gold cup to me. Lord Windermere goes for back to back GC's and has to be respected but far better horses have tried and failed to win back to back GC's and i think this factor will really work against him this year. Bob's Worth needs to show he retains his old sparkle but if the ground is better i think he would have to stand a big chance as we all know how well he runs around Cheltenham. I do think it may be beyond him though. Roads To Riches is a horse i have just never really warmed to. Having said that i think he has to have a major chance. I do think there could be another major surprise in this as no one really stands out but if he turns up then i would have to be with Champagne Fever at this moment in time
Thing about Conti's King George is he was the only stayer in the race. He beat Ryanair and Champion Chase horses, which he obviously should be able to do dictating over 3 miles. The Lexus was the race full of Gold Cup horses so it'd be the race I'd concentrate on. Road to Riches looks the one to me, young, improving, saw it out very well in ground he hated.... I think he's a very fair bet at 10s, and he's done me a couple of nice turns this season at right prices so I'll not desert him now. Lord Windermere the danger.
I think Conti was just under rated here. He won't be on future events. I think that will happen sometime in the future too. please log in to view this image
I wouldn't back Silviniaco Conti as despite the fact he is the most talented horse lining up, he has had 2 cracks at the Gold Cup and lost both times. Cheltenham is a specialists track, and it's not a track that brings the best out of him. This is along way off being a vintage renewal, so I can see it being another close finish with lots of horses in the mix come the closing stages. Lord Windermere came out on top last year in a battle, and he has an excellent record at the festival, so I'd say he is the likeliest winner.
I'm good mate, yeah has been a while, good to see the same old members on here. You don't seem to have picked up any new ones I haven't been following the racing as much as I used to. However I liked the look of Vautor today. I was really impressed with the way he moved, I think he is a good price at 8/1 for the Arkle
Looks like he may head to the JLT though Shergs based on Rubys comments today after the race He ought to front run in an Arkle but it looks like Un De Sceaux will line up for that?
Oh right shows how much I've been following the racing lately It's ashame they've brought out this daft JLT chase, as it just means the Arkle field is going to be diluted every year with good horse trying to avoid one another. I haven't watched much racing in a while, but I remember how well he won the Supreme Novices, and he just moved so well today. He looks like a horse with serious ability. It just seems strange that they would avoid going for a grade 1 with a horse who's already won a G1 hurdle over the same distance at the festival. Un De Sceaux is obviously a horse with an impressive win record, but he isn't as proven as Vautour IMO. So id personally go with Vautour in the Arkle as he's more likely to deliver for them if you ask me. Like you say get him out infront, let him get a good sight of his fences and I think he'd run away from them. As Cheltenhams still a fairly testing track, even over 2 miles
Saturday at Cheltenham apparently in what was the Cotswold Chase (been re-opened due to lack of entries). Alan King last week though was being very non-commital about the CGC after this race.
