Good evening folks, will be attending Leopardstown for the finale off the festival tomorrow and a few decent races to look forward too there, a jacket and wooly hat will be needed though it's gonna be a cool one. A few I like there are Shanahan's Turn 5/1 who look's like a real improver for the big obstacles, he jumps for fun and the stable confidence has me confident he will run a huge one here, that said you can make a case and point for almost all runners with some form correlating throughout albeit over shorter trips, different ground conditions etc but I think a good clip here at 3 miles is something he will relish, he will lob along just in behind the leaders and make his move coming into the home turn and hopefully stay on strongly, a cracking race in prospect. Windsor Park 13/8 ought to prove difficult to beat in the maiden hurdle having won over 2 mile in a bumper here last season and stepping up in trip with a hurdle to jump should really bring out more progression in him granted he jumps fluently as if this were a flat race he would be banker material. Annamatopoeia 20/1 should run a big race in the mares hurdle, she has some useful form in behind Sheamus (completing 4 timer) before winning her maiden hurdle easily and then tackling a grade 3 where she was no match for Black Hercules, but back in against here own sex she will put up a bold show hopefully with a front running display and rates a decent each way opportunity. Will be watching in at Newbury too if possible, Blaklion should a take bit of beating there tomorrow...Good Luck all
An unusual foray into midweek betting for me, and with apologies to Toppy, Wooley and anyone else ....... from my tracker ..... Apache Stronghold and Blaklion Good luck all PS: Why has my bug died?
Decimated card today, lucky the best quality survives -shame that we lost the sand dancers as I really fancied Shawcantango -have done the blaklion and Shanahans turn double!
12.20 Leopardstown Behemoth 14/1 Although the ground is a bit of concern, I'm keen on the chances of Paul Nolan's Behemoth who I think looks on a workable mark of 119 and unexposed over fences I'm hopeful he can land the tomorrow's opener at the final day of Leopardstown's Christmas meeting. Having won a P2P on debut, Behemoth having remained a Maiden in a Bumper and 7 hurdles outings under rules but he already seems a much better chaser and I think there is more to come from this 5 year old. Having ran a decent race when 3rd on his Chasing debut, he scored at the 2nd time of asking over the larger obstacles when making all to beat the decent enough Vexalco on decent ground at Tramore over 23f back in August and he ran an absolute belter just 8 days later pitched into a very hot Grade C handicap at Killarney when a very good 3rd. Off a mark of 120, Behemoth was largely prominent throughout the contest and he stuck on very well all the way to the line to finish an 8.5L beaten 3rd having been headed before 3 out. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Pass The Hat being very narrowly beaten in the Kerry Grand National off 7lb higher mark on his next start whilst he was a fine 4th in big Ascot handicap off a 16lb higher mark on his next completed whilst the runner up Nearly Nama'd won on his next start to give the form a strong look. Behemoth fell early on on his next start in a handicap at the end of September before finishing picking up an injury on his last chase outing at the start of October (still a decent effort). Since his last run over fences, Behemoth had a pipe opener about a month ago at Fairyhouse over hurdles when he was unusually held up but I'm hoping that run has put him spot on for this. Dropped 1lb to a mark of 119, Behemoth is now 1lb below the run of his terrific effort at Killarney which has his only completed handicap start thus far and I definitely think a reproduction of that effort can see him go very close. Additionally, given he is only a 5 year old who is unexposed over fences there could be a good bit more to come from him and I'm definitely hopeful of a big run tomorrow. Looking at the bare facts, Behemoth would definitely seem to favour decent ground but it should be noted that his runs in testing conditions were all over hurdles and his trainer feels he will handle testing ground better and better as he gains experience and strengthens up and, although it's definitely a concern, I'm hopeful he'll handle it. With this race over 2m5f, I definitely think its a positive that Behemoth has won over further as I'm sure it will become quite testing late on in this contest. Luke Dempsey takes a handy 4lb off in this contest and he's certainly a young jockey that I rate. Looking at the opposition, it seems very likely that Behemoth will be taken on for the lead by favourite On The Shannon which isn't necessarily ideal but Behmoth doesn't need an easy lead and I don't think it will ruin his chances. Trainer Paul Nolan registered his first win of Decemeber on Saturday (albeit with a 1/5 shot) which is a bit disconcerting but hopefully it's a sign that his horses are coming to form. Facing a much easier contest then he did at Killarney on his handicap debut, if putting in a similar effort to that then I'm confident Behemoth can go very close if handling the testing ground and hopefully he can land the opener in what looks a tricky enough contest. 2.00 Leopardstown Like It A Lot 16/1 The other Paul Nolan horse on the card Like It A Lot also catches my eye on his handicap debut and off a mark of 114 I definitely think he's handicapped to win races. Having run a promising race when 3rd behind Black Hercules in a P2P, Like It A Lot ran a blinder on his rules debut in a decent Bumper at Galway when just failing to The Winkler by a nose. For one reason or another, this 5 year old blew out on his next two starts in Bumpers but he bounced right back to form with a blinding effort on his hurdling debut when he was probably unlucky not to win having made mess of the last over 2m at Cork back in March. The horse he failed to reel in by just a head that day Shamsikhan had already shown strong hurdles time prior to that having finished 2nd to smart winner Minella Foru and 4th behind 3 good horses in Is Love Alive, Emperor Of Exmoor and Thekingofconnemara and it was a terrific hurdling debut by Like It A Lot. Having run a bit disappointing upped to 22f on his next start in May (absent 5 months after), Like It A Lot bounced right back to form in first time cheekpieces when a never nearer 4L 4th behind the very promising Sheamus at Fairyhouse 2 months ago. That race looks very strong with the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th all winning next time and it was a great effort by Like It A Lot. Oddly enough, Like It A Lot has ran twice in chases subsequently (fell at first once) but his well beaten 5th behind Don Poli doesn't look bad given the 4 horses in front of him are decent animals. Reverting back to hurdles today, I'm convinced this 5 year old is well handicapped off an opening mark of 114 and given he's owned by Barry Connell you'll be sure he's been primed for this. Having run well in testing conditions before, the ground holds no fear for Like It A Lot although, as before, Paul Nolan's form is a little worrying. The cheekpieces worn on his last run over hurdles, which were absent for both runs over fences, are reapplied today and I'm confident of a big run by Like It A Lot and hopefully he can land this decent pot.
12.55 Leopardstown. ROGUE TRADER. 12-1. Win Bet. 1.40 Limerick. ROMANTIC FASHION. 16-1. Each Way Bet.
Sprinter Sacre looking full of himself there at Newbury - great to see. Snapped up some 7/2 for the Champion Chase on the back of that, I expect him to win well at Ascot and shorten towards even money. Ladbrokes only going 2s for Cheltenham.
Didn't see it but good to hear of his well being. Would love to see SDG, Champagne Fever and the Black Aeroplane line up in Queen Mother.
Let's not forget Nicholls is also trying to get Al Ferof to go for that as he is adamant he is a non stayer!
Afternoon All. Today's lucky 15!! 1-25,Leopardstown. Hurricane Fly. 2-10,Newbury.Vyta Du Roc. 2-35.Leopardstown. Fairytale Theatre. 3-05,Leopardstown. Don Poli. Good luck to all.
Good point Twardy, he said that after the King George didn't he. Reckoned he needed to work on John Hales to convince him. Add AF to the line up. Just hope none of them take a supposed easier option.
Terrific race!! Jezki was not going to get past The Fly when he battles like that but absolute thriller to watch made me stand up and pretend I was on him
