Now that final declarations are out it's time for a closer study of the field for what looks like a typically competitive affair. At the head of the market is Willie Mullins' Djakadam at around the 4/1 mark. Whilst you have to respect his chances based on connections, I am struggling to warm to his odds, primarily because he has only completed 2 chases (won both starts in Ireland last season before falling in the JLT at Cheltenham) and he may just lack a bit of experience for this. We then have a clutch of horses in the 7/1 to 9/1 range - Rocky Creek, Smad Place, Fingal Bay and Many Clouds. You would have to say Rocky Creek is the one with form in the book, having run an excellent 2nd on seasonal reappearance in the JN Wine Chase at Down Royal. Paul Nicholls knows what it takes to win this race and he is weighted to reverse form from last year with Trio D'Alene. Alan King's Smad Place is being touted as a possible Gold Cup horse and has the "2nd season chaser" profile that usually goes so well in this race. His novice season started inauspiciously, with a fall at Huntingdon, but he then won twice and was only just touched off in the RSA. I want to see how he goes in this, because we know the RSA can take a hell of a lot out of a horse, so a watching brief. Many Clouds won really well at Carlisle and that should put him spot on for this, but he was receiving weight that day and is up 7lbs to 151 which may be a tall order for him. This is clearly a lot more competitive. Fingal Bay will be one of 2 horses carrying my money - he is a horse I have always loved and I am hoping that winning the Pertemps over hurdles has restored his confidence and that he can get his chasing career back on track in this. His yard could not be in better form. The other horse I will be backing, at a juicy e/w price, is former Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude, who gets in here off 146 and will be galloping on when many of these have cried enough. He will have no problems with the ground, having won the Chepstow marathon on heavy, and his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow was full of promise, finishing second off a mark of 143 und 11 stone 7. He goes off 146 here but carries only 11 stone 1 and hopefully he can give Paul Moloney a nice ride.
SMAD PLACE. And the whole of the county set are on... He went to Newbury just over a week ago for a racecourse gallop and the vibes are good...they are very good. Because the old boy runs so well fresh Alan King has said since last terms Festival the plan with the horse in season 2014/15 is simple – 2 races, the Hennessy and then the CGC itself. Deffo needs to go very, very close on Saturday, off 155, if he is to be a CGC contender. Smad Place has sound form when running after a 3 month+ break his form is -113U (the U was an unseat at the last when clear). Furthermore, his form at Newbury reads an impressive -11.
Two strong stayers for me, who are big prices - Unioniste and Monbeg Dude. The former looks fairly handicapped and is a class act on his day, with reports of ulcers being treated, he could return to his best form when he slaughtered Wishfull Thinking. A repeat of that effort, would make him very interesting here. Monbeg Dude ran a stormer on reappearance and for me this is perfect for him, if he jumps as he did that day, he will surely be staying on strongly over the final half mile, and he could at least place at big odds. He is fairly handicapped too, and I think a real test might bring him to the fore.
If you like Djakadam I wouldn't get too worried about his rank price at the moment for they'll have him enhanced tomorrow to 6 or 7/1. I backed him at 10s few week back. He could make a complete morkery of this tomorrow if he's as good as Mullins' think he is. Inexperience could be his biggest obstacle but in saying that, its a proper good Hennessey on paper. All the right ones at the top of the market. Many Clouds really impressed me on debut, Smad Place looks nailed on to place at least, Rocky Creek only 5lbs higher than last year. It looks as good a Hennessey as there's been for a good few years.
Who was the last horse to win Back-to-Back Hennessy's? "The Great One" & "The Undisputed Champion"...Sir Peter O'Sullevan Enjoy! Good Luck
I think Nicholls over-hyped Irving. He was a classy novice just got walloped at cheltenham (not the first one that has happened too). He would have won his reappearance and let's face it the field for the fighting fifth tomorrow is embarassing. I took a small stake on that double but main bet on Hennessy is FINGAL BAY the yard could not be in better form and this lad was a fine novice chaser before injury. He'll do for me.
I took 10/1 weeks back when Patrick said he though the horse was well handicapped off a mark in the 150's only to be told he was actually rated 142. Also backed Fingal Bay ew because of the Gary Nutting trial i am currently in the middle of.
A couple of seasons back I was telling you guys how highly thought of LE REVE was by his yard. He has taken his time to come good but the penny has dropped at last and he has the potential to improve immensely on what he has done thus far. DC now his regular partner so no concern that Aspell sticks with Many Clouds. 33-1 is worth a sporting wager!
SMAD PLACE travelled lovely in the RSA and goes well fresh. He has a high looking mark on the face of it but frankly if you take out Djakadam, Fingal Bay, and Many Clouds, I don't think any of the others will get close, so he is more than fairly treated in the context of this race. He has the potential to become a Gold Cup contender. I'd love to see Fingal Bay pull it out of the fire and if he gets round and can make it a battle, he might have the engine to forge home.
I think we may be in for a double figure shock!! With the ground testing as it is I have done 2 small ew Monbeg Dude will love the slog of a test tomorrow and his most recent second seems to install abit of confidence and has to improve on past but could quite easily do What a warrior is on a major high mark but is also on a major high role and would be put it past him in improving too both of these at decent ew prices too
The horse has won 8 races out of 12 starts Beef - 4 from 6 since being bought to race in the UK ! I have not checked but there are probably few if any other horses running today with such an emphatic strike rate. It also looked as though would have been 9 from 12 had he not come down at the last in his last race.
