Cheltenham Ante Post 2015

I know he didn't win today but i was very pleased with how Vibrato Valtat jumped today and the 25/1 on offer looks decent value.

 

The QMCC is a fascinating ante post market and I think it offers a ridiculous amount of value. And this is why:

Sprinter Sacre heads the market at circa 5/2 - i've no idea if this horse will ever run again. Could easily be a shadow of his former self. This is all good news if you want to have an ante post bet because he takes out a lot of the market.

Sire De Grugy - injured? Not injured? I heard a few weeks ago he was done till Christmas. Then I hear he's come back into himself. Hardly fills you with confidence either way. At circa 4/1, it is good news again because there's enough reasons to decide this 4/1 shot is worth taking on.

Champagne Fever - 10/1. I think he'd win this race if he turned up but he probably won't.

That's the front 3 in the market who may all fail to turn up.

Who's worth backing?

You can take your pick from a host of big priced, quality animals. Lots of which have proven themselves round Cheltenham.

The ones i've backed at 20/1 are:

Western Warhorse 20/1

Surprise Arkle winner who has only run three times over fences. There simply must be more to come from this horse. A lot of people don't like him which I find completely ridiculous and frankly a very lazy way to look at NH racing.

He's won an Arkle on his second chase start beating last years Supreme winner and former Champion Bumper winner who himself had beaten the Champion hurdler and runner up in previous years albeit over the bumper trip and hurdles. That is a top, top performance however you look at it. He beat Victor Hewgo on chase debut. That horse won easily nto, ran Holywell a very close 2nd on his next run and cruised round in penultimate race of the season before failing at Aintree. It all stacks up really well. So what if Western Warhorse ran poorly at Aintree? Isn't he entitled to be knackered after battling Champagne Fever up the Cheltenham Hill? For me, this is the ante post bet of the season so far. Absolutely terrific value.

The other horse I think is value at 20/1 is Alan Kings Uxizandre. Proven form round Cheltenham after a tantalising 2nd in the Jewson and a win at the weekend. Won around Aintree nto.

At 20/1 I genuinely don't see how I can lose with these bets. Sprinter Sacre OR Sire De Grugy may come back and blitz them all but i don't think they will. Even if they do I expect to be able to trade out of these positions for a profit before the race. Terrific ante post bets. Some rev forecast as well. Get on.

 

Western Warhorse out for the season according to reports.

Alan King confirmed at the weekend that Balder Success is 'his real 2m horse' and it runs in the Tingle Creek in a few weeks, therefore would suspect Uxizandre races over 2m 5f in the Ryanair.

 

Didn't know about Warhorse. Not heard anything to be perfectly honest so will have to dig about.

14/1 for Balder if you fancy that. The principle is exactly the same whatever you back when you look past the first three in the market.

 

Uxizandre for the Ryanair at 12s looks the best value bet at the minute by a mile.

 

Bumper - Bellshill 25/1

 

I'm on Bellshill at 40s Boris, was that last week Bordini hacked up on Sunday showing his point to point looks to have depth. If this lad hacks up tomorrow even the 25s will be long gone!

 

We're all on lads.

Patrick was on the FinalFurlong podcast at least 6 weeks ago telling everyone about it. I've had the same horse from another source as well

My opinion - take the price now. Perfect back to lay if you like those scenarios.

 

He won lads but not by much. Personally, i think that's a better introduction to NH racing than an easy saunter beating trees but time will tell whether that experience of having to battle will do him good or be a little too much in the early stages of his career.

Does anyone know which horse won the point to point that he ran in and who trains it now?

 

Stuck on a silly Lucky 15 for pennies to keep me interested as i dont really divulge into the Ante Post market. Did the same last year and managed to come away with Taquin D S and Lac Fontana at decent prices.

Arkle - Vilbrato Valtat - Loved how fluent he was at his fences and obviously should have won his race
RSA - Champagne West - Hard to assess due to the amount of fences missed but jumped well and will appreciate step up in trip
Ryanair - Uxizandre - Could be a monster price come March depending on who turns up. Dynaste throws a wobbler now and then, Champagne Fever could be going Gold cup and Simonsig could be anything after his injury.
Gold Cup - Taquin Du Seuil - Has a serious engine on top of a good turn of foot, if he improves his jumping he will be an absolute monster. Will find out more on Saturday

 

All of that is correct oddy.

 

thanks oddy. obviously a horse we should all have in our trackers.

 

With the Henderson lacking any chance in the champion hurdle Is there any chance that old boy Nicky will stick Simonsig in the race would absolutely love to see him hurdling! I no the chances are zero but still

 

Crossed my mind but looks very unlikely- I like him as a Gold Cup bet @25/1

If he hacks up in a King George it will be close to impossible to then go to the Ryanair instead of the Blue Ribband event, especially with Long Run well over the hill and all sorts of questions around Bobs Worth.

 

Only two ante-post so far. I actually think ante-post betting is essential for cheltenham. I saw Faugheen and Vautour at Naas last year early autumn and lumped on.

Arkle God's Own 18/1 Betfair - brilliant at Punchey and Exeter will be scared off champion chase when sprinter sacre hacks up in tingle creek
Queen Mother Simply Ned 33/1 - Don't wanna back sprinter in case he doesn't hack up but if he does (as I expect) will be too skinny so Simply Ned a fun bet with a decent profit even if he places.

Any thoughts on Shaneshill for the Neptune take 10s now or wait?

 

Unfortunately it does the other option is if SPrinter Sacre doesn't make it to the festival and doubts over SDG surely He looks to the have CHampion Chase in the bag if he ran

 

Looks to be he likely route and Allez to go the supreme unless Blacklion does a The New One and destroys the Mullins hotpot - lost the same race he did before finally going on to win the Neptune but 10/1 on proven course form could have worst e/w ante post bets

 

Wish Hendo would come out and tell us what's happening with Sprinter. All this smoke and mirrors makes me doubt he'll return tbh. Shame if that is the case. Simonsig would very quickly become his Champion Chaser then.

 

I think we will probably find out at the Tingle Creek what sort of form he is back but hopefully he will be back to 100% but either way he may not have a champion hurdler but he has has 2 champion chasers! I can't see them not running Bobs worth in the gold cup I just hope he doesn't end up in the Rynair