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not606 Daily Racing Thread Friday 14th Nov. 2014

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Nov 13, 2014.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    Friday's Meetings

    Lingfield................... All-Weather........ 8 Races..... 11:55-3:50p.m.
    Newcastle................ National Hunt.... 7 Races..... 12:05-3:25p.m.
    Cheltenham............. National Hunt.... 6 Races...... 1:15-4:05p.m.
    Wolverhampton(E) All-Weather....... 8 Races....... 4:00-7:30p.m.
    Dundalk(E).............. All-Weather........ 7 Races....... 6:15-9:15p.m.

    At The Races Cards
    Racing Post Cards
    Sporting Life Cards

    Good Luck <ok>
     
    #1
  2. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Afternoon, crew.

    As I said earlier in the week I really like one running in the ‘lucky last’ at Cheltenham tomorrow (4.05). However, in supporting him I will be going against one of my fundamental punting rules (number 78 – never back a horse who is a former Mr Henderson inmate. As it’s impossible to improve on perfection).

    RALLY, who is owned by the 11th richest man in Wales has since his last run been moved from Mr Henderson’s barn to that of Nige Twiston-Davies. I always liked this animal when he was placed with the forum’s favourite trainer and his current perch of 122 looks fairly lenient, to my eye, when you consider that the horse he brushed aside at Wetherby, a year ago, Vivaldi Collonges, off levels, is now on 139 and the animal, way behind in 3rd , 28 lengths so in fact, and he met level weights that day, is now on 112. However, Rally did disappointed in 2 races after this but there were genuine excuses – Grade 2 company was just too hot for him, at that stage in his career, as was the extremely heavy Ffos Las ground last time out.

    I’ve no idea how fit and ‘ready’ for tomorrow Rally is, after 333 days off the track, plus old boy Nige is no Mr Henderson but Rally off just 122 certainly appeals hugely and if he’s fit enough I certainly feel he’s good enough. One thing that Nige does know is how to win this race – he did so in 2012.

    Sporting Life are currently forecasting 20/1 and he looks a sound each-way recommendation.
     
    #2
  3. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Sporting Life have Rally as the rank outsider of the field at 20/1 on their "tissue" Sir Barney <yikes>
     
    #3
  4. tward07

    tward07 Well-Known Member

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    Really looking forward to the novice chase tomorrow. A case could easily be made for the first 5 in the betting and right now im not sure what way to go. I have a feeling Champagne West will go on to bigger and better things this year but Colour Squadron has already established himself in top handicap chases last year but struggles to get his head in front.
     
    #4
  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Really like a good few tomorrow

    Handy Andy - ran well at Chepstow and loves Cheltenham.
    New Sensation - didn't jump on return but his Grand Annual run was great.
    Champagne West - one to follow this season in novice races
    Blaklion- really useful and to me looks a Cheltenham horse

    Then I like the two shorties to close but not backing them in singles.
     
    #5
  6. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

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    i'm not mad on backing 10/11 shots but surely balthazar king is a good thing in the cross country:emoticon-0178-rock:
     
    #6
  7. TC (Lovely Geezer)

    TC (Lovely Geezer) Well-Known Member

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    Ut Majeur Aulmes in the 2nd @ 20/1.
     
    #7
  8. floridaspearl

    floridaspearl Well-Known Member

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    Evenin all
    With the forecast heavy rain overnight in the area at ha
    Here are my selections
    1.15 baldly oliver
    1.50 Shanghai
    2.25 champagne west
    3.00 minelayer present
    3.35 lambro
    4.05 cloudy beach
    A good day for Venetia I fancy, Charlie Mann is a trainer I don't normally follow but to me a nicely bred horse.ii fancy charingworth to overturn handy Andy at the weights.
     
    #8
  9. tward07

    tward07 Well-Known Member

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    Had a shot at going through the card tomorrow, the handicaps look difficult as always but i am really looking forward to he novice races. I think Blaklion looks a serious horse and be nice to see the ownership winning the Neptune again in March.

    1.15 Benbens
    1.50 Ut Majeur Aulmes
    2.25 Champagne West
    3.00 Blaklion
    3.35 Uncle Junior
    4.05 Morito Du Berlais
     
    #9
  10. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Said it before Chepstow (as did Drever) and very much in agreement still. Amazing for these owners if they get two that good in such a short space of time. What odds the Neptune/Champion Hurdle double? Hoping to see him really perform tomorrow although didn't their other one lose a similar prep race at NH HQ ;-)
     
    #10

  11. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Are you talking about the same horse who won't be winning the champion hurdle in March <laugh>
     
    #11
  12. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    Off to Cheltenham in the morning which is a far better way to spend a Friday than stuck in an office. Would be improved further by a few winners but nothing really stands out as a bet. I'll probably have a little go on Fruity O'Rooney in the opener but that's more sentimentality than calculated. I suspect Ryan Moore couldn't boot Fruity home these days, let alone his sister on Cheltenham debut and only her second ride over the big uns. The 2 novice events look like nice races with a few decent sorts. Can't see past Balthazar King in the X Country. In the lucky last It would appear from the betting that the JP jolly can't be beat. However I reckon Heres Herbie is well over priced at 33s. The selection was successful in the mud at Exeter last March and the horses filling second and third have both gone up over 20lbs in the ratings since. Herbie finished off last season with a creditable run at HQ but found the 3 miles too far. Back down in trip, unexposed and worth an each way poke. Good luck all.
     
    #12
  13. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Good luck Chan tomorrow!!FOR is on a winning Mark IMO and does well at the track and has his trip with the slog tht will come with it but have good day anyway enjoy the new bar <ok>
     
    #13
  14. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    Cheers Wooly. Fruity owes me nothing so I'll be on. Always get a run for your money.
     
    #14
  15. tward07

    tward07 Well-Known Member

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    Was lucky enough to be on last run aswell Stick and really looking forward to seeing him progress. Looks like he has speed to burn
     
    #15
  16. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    1.50 Cheltenham

    Monetaire 10/1

    Translating French form is always a tricky thing to do but I think there is a very good chance that the British Handicapper has been quite lenient in allowing this 8 year old to make his British debut off a mark of 123 for the shrewd Pipe yard and I think he could take quite a bit of beating. At a meeting where David Pipe has been the leading trainer for the past 2 years running with 4 victories both seasons, I think it looks very telling that the yard unleash newly acquired French recruit Monetaire here as owner Allan Stennett's two previous recruits to the Pipe yard from France have both sauntered to victory on their British debuts before going on to win at the Cheltenham Festival. The first of these, Salut Flo, ran out a very easy winner of a handicap chase of a mark of 118 back in March 2010 before tasting success in a Cheltenham handicap in 2012 whilst the other Ballynagour could have won by half the track on debut for the Pipe yard when scoring at Warwick off a mark of 123 last February and tasting Cheltenham Festival success this year. Judged on these two previous French recruits by Allann Stennett, I gather two things; that they should be caught on their debut for the Pipe yard and that they are very well handicapped animals.

    It must be said, however, that both Ballynagour and Salut Flo both arrived to the Pipe yard with slightly different profiles to that of Monetaire having been more lightly raced and they were also younger (just turned 7 and 5 respectively) but with only 8 chasing starts under his belt I think there certainly looks more to come from this son of Anabaa and I'm sure David Pipe will certainly find some improvement in him. Looking at his French chasing form, Monetaire easily won a Amateur Riders' Conditions Chase at Autueil over an extended 17f before going on to finish 2nd in the French Grand National at the same venue over just shy of 3 miles early last year and if rediscovering that form I think a mark of 123 makes him look potentially very well in. Tomorrow's contest sees Monetaire dropped back down to the minimum drip but given the multitude of front runners in the race coupled with the stiff uphill finish at Prestbury Park I'm definitely hopeful that the distance won't be much of an issue and he should really enjoy a race run at a blistering tempo. Getting in off a lovely racing weight of 10-4, a first time tongue tie is added to Monetiare and the 332 day absence is of little concern to me given the yard is well capable of getting his horses fit after a break whilst Ballynagour's victory on his first start for Pipe also came after a fairly long break. Although I normally much rather prefer to be able to try know if a horse is well handicapped on British or Irish form, I've no problems backing this fella at 10/1 given the trainer/owner combination's record with two similar types before and given that David Pipe always targets this meeting and has been leading trainer at it for the past two years I think it's very fair to assume that this 8 year old has been laid out for this contest and hopefully he can deliver a victory on his first outing on British soil.
     
    #16
  17. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Flat: the favourite in the 2nd at Wolverhampton should give Mrs Windsor her 8th 2yo winner of the year. Conflicting Advice is a son of the champion Aussie mare Assertive Lass.
     
    #17
  18. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Really looking forward to seeing one of my 5 to follow, Dell' Arca, running in the Steel Plate And Sections Novice Chase at Cheltenham. This race has a rich history having thrown up future Gold Cup winners Denman and Imperial Commander and has, in recent years, been a target for the Pipe yard with their best novices - Dynaste and Grands Crus having taken the race in their respective novice seasons. The Greatwood Hurdle form is usually well worth following and the way Dell' Arca took the race on his British debut was very impressive and he showed that was no fluke by finishing close up in some of the hottest novice hurdle races last season. The fact that David Pipe chooses to start him here, in a race they have done so well in with really good animals in recent years, speaks volumes to me and I think he will take all the beating before going on to bigger and better things. Had to get my bet on last night due to IT restrictions in the office so had to take 3/1 BOG but hopefully there will be plenty of money for Champagne West and Urban Hymn and I might get a better price ;)

    Good luck all <ok>
     
    #18
  19. 55282

    55282 Well-Known Member

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    Morning all,

    Having an e/w lucky 63 e/w acca on my Chelts selections on Steveos thread.

    At Newcastle I'm going for;

    12-35 Balleybogey
    2-15 Bollin Julie
    2-50 Boric
    3-25 Western Rules
    e/w lucky 15 e/w acca.

    Going to have a dabble @ Jebel Ali,waiting for the prices but will most probably stick with Dobbs/Watson.

    Happy betting all and good luck.
     
    #19
  20. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    Not on much due to connection props

    Jason McGuire isn't missing cheats for nothing and James Rev thinks he has no chance

    Hope that helps

    Stay frosty
     
    #20

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