Saturday's Meetings Catterick ............... Flat................ 8 Races...1:25-5:20p.m. Cork ...................... Flat................ 8 Races...1:35-5:25p.m. Kelso ..................... National Hunt 8 Races....1:40-5:40p.m. Ascot ..................... Flat................ 6 Races....1:45-4:45p.m. Cheltenham ........... National Hunt..7 Races...2:00-5:30p.m. Wolverhampton(E) All-Weather.... 8 Races....5:45-9:15p.m. Racing Post Cards Sporting Life Cards Good Luck
I'm off to Ascot tomorrow for what has turned out to be a very underwhelming card. After looking through it, here is what i have come up with. Struggling to work out why Forgotten Rules is 100/30 in the Long Distance Cup tomorrow. Leading Light has won on heavy and has the best form in the race. 5/2 seems too good to be true..... In the sprint i am torn between Jack Dexter and Maarek. Both should love the ground and have the quality to win this. Ill plump for Jack Dexter. Ran Slade Power very close in this last year and think he has to go close tomorrow. May as well stick a pin in the fillies and mares race. Silk Sari seems to have improved massively and relished the good to soft ground last time. Heavy ground however is a completely different matter. Albasharah needs to take a huge leap in class to take a hand. She looked good last weekend but i don't think she is ready for this yet. Cubanita should be fine on the ground so ill go for her. In the QE2 i can't be having Night Of Thunder. Still hasn't replicated the level of form shown in the Guineas and never raced on heavy ground. Charm Spirit has to be a threat but i'm going for Custom Cut. David O'Meara has had a cracking season and this horse has improved massively. Able to grind out wins and i'm not sure he has stopped improving yet. This is a sub standard G1 and i think he has a huge chance. Cirrus Des Aigles will have been trained to the minute for this. Had a run in the Prix Dollar last time to set him straight and he has to be in the frame on ground he shouldnt have a problem with. The only horse i can see with a chance of beating him is Free Eagle if he turns up. He has looked a monster in two of his 3 runs and he has the potential to be top top class. Tomorrow will be the first test of how good he is but i'm going to play it safe and go for the french runner who has less doubts. Balmoral Handicap - don't know and don't really care. Purely for sentimental purposes and the fact he loves Ascot, i'll say Hawkeyethenoo
Ascot 1.45 Estimate 13/2 2.20 Gregorian 11/1 2.55 Seal Of Approval 7/1 3.30 Tullius 12/1 4.05 Western Hymn 18/1
Sorely tempted by Leading Light but Ladbrokes offering 5/2 really does concern me, as does his flat run LTO when beaten by Brown Panther and scraping home from Encke.
Off to HQ tomorrow, not the best card ever but it will be a great day out. Quite fancy Keighleys top weight to make all.
After the bookie friendly results at Newmarket’s Future Champions Day, will anybody be venturing into the betting ring at Ascot? I already knew that I would not be involved as I do not bet when the ground is soft. I expect the two features to go to France, but Charm Spirit and Cirrus Des Aigles are the sort of prices I would not even look at if the ground were good to firm. Freddie Head’s charge collected the Prix Jean Prat on very soft ground but probably put in a better performance winning the Prix Du Moulin last time; however, this race is unlikely to be run like either of those French Group 1s. If Corine Barande-Barbe’s gelding was really only eighty per cent fit when passing the post first in the Prix Dollar perhaps that explains why he had such a hard time disposing of a Group 2 performer in Fractional. His form has been dropping with the years but he is still top rated in a race where nearly half the field are easily dismissed. It would be wonderful to see Frankel’s brother Noble Mission end his career with a top Group 1 that he actually won rather than got awarded by the forensic chemists. That would certainly be popular with the home fans. Hoping the rain stays away...
Can't quite decide whether Calipto is a decent price or not getting 8lbs from Tiger Roll tomorrow... Obviously depends whose more forward and the fact Gordon Elliott's sending Tiger Roll over suggests he's looking for more than a pipe-opener. Could see Tiger Roll developing into a lively outsider for the Champion Hurdle in which case you'd think he should win tomorrow. Hope that's as clear as mud, leading us onto British Mud Machines Day at Ascot! It would have been quality to see Free Eagle light the day up with an electrifying performance but on ground that's barely raceable that's unlikely!
2.55 Ascot CHIQUITA 7/1 (NAP) The 2013 Irish Oaks winner was also runner up to Treve in a French Group 1, running on well in the process but like most people against Treve, done for a turn of foot. Tomorrow at Ascot is about stamina and about time of year. Chiquita has been saved for a back end campaign. shaped with some nice promise when considerately handled behind Tarfasha a few weeks back and as you would expect, couldn't land a blow in the Arc from a poor position. This daughter of Montjeu shpuld relish the stiff test at Ascot and should go on the ground. The opposition does not look fierce, with the top 3 year olds missing and a suspect older brigade, the only one to fear is Seal Of Approval who loved the soft ground in this last year. I just feel Chiquita could prove to be the class act of the race.
4.05 Ascot RULER OF THE WORLD 7/1 Likeable horse, although not the level of Derby winner as some others, and I think we can now say he boasts a solid baseline of performance given his rock solid run in the last two Arcs behind Treve. He sticks at it very well, handles conditions, and is having just his third run of the season. He takes his racing well in general and IF you think Cirrus Des Aigles might be just a few pounds below his best, then Ruler Of The World might just have enough to see him off. If we ignore Cirrus, Noble Mission is from the same generation and was nowhere near Rulers level, neither was Pethers Moon, Western Hymn will handle the ground but needs a career best to see off this field (although he is very talented he looks awkward), Al Kazeem doesn't quite look the same after returning, and there is no way on this earth they will bottom Free Eagle on this, surely. Cirrus won his prep much, much easier last season and he has shown one or two creaks at the age of eight, particularly when coming home sore at Epsom. He will go down as a great Champion, even more so if he can bounce back and win this again. However, I think Ruler Of The World looks set to outstay the others if he underperforms and at 7/1 (17/2 in places) it is a good honest e/w price. Western Hymn has a soft ground action but to quote Gosden after his defeat LTO in France: The betting suggested that race was a match between Western Hymn and Prince Gibraltar, who was placed in the French Derby and Grand Prix de Paris, but neither colt could quicken in the closing stages as Gailo Chop recorded a front-running success. “Western Hymn ran well but it was very deep turf and he didn’t handle it,” Gosden said. “He’s a horse that can handle soft, but that was specialists’ ground. Ascot is described as 'heavy' so we will have to see. “He and the other co-favourite sat out the back and ran on to be third and fourth but it was too deep for them, simple as that.
There are two anomalies regard price for me tomorrow at Ascot. As already covered Leading Light seems way to big at 5-2 and I would have expected 13-8, the other question however is why Custom Cat is allowed to go off at such big prices despite always winning impressively. I cannot help think were he running in those green and white silks with a pink sash that he would be half the price. I have avoided punting whilst the ground has been soft but will throw some at a yankee tomorrow for fun as I can't not have a bet on champions day as it just doesn't seem right.
I was thinking of lumping on CDA but I have a concern. I know he loves the mud and he is tough and consistent. But, I am worried about Free Eagle. He has never run on this ground and that should put a large ? against him. However, despite his progressive profile and his latest impressive run being on good to firm, his sire High Chaparrel revelled in the mud and does produce horses that go well on heavy ground and his half brother Custom Cut, out of Polished Gem, has won a few races in heavy ground. So on pedigree he should go in the ground tomorrow. I would feel more comfortable if he had won in heavy ground and/or seen his action to suggest he would act in it. He had a stress fracture of the tibia last year but he seems fully recovered and it's not a long lasting injury so that wouldn't concern me. So Free Eagle could make a name for himself tomorrow by putting CDA in his place. With the fear that Free Eagle could be a super star and the fear that he might not act in the ground, despite the indications that he should, I would have to dutch the 2. But at approx odds of 0.6/1 that is not attractive. So I will watch with interest
70404 This stuff is important lads. Stand Up To Cancer Text TEN or FIVE Donate a tenner and help give some people a bit of hope when they are struggling. Maybe have one less bet on Saturday and donate that stake or give a bit if you win something. We do well enough on here to be able to contribute something.
2.35 Cheltenham - Marie Curie Cancer Care Handicap Chase (4yo+, 2m 4f, Class 2, 11 runners) As you would expect, this handicap looks very competitive on paper BUT I think a number of these will be having this as a pipe-opener in advance of the Paddy Power Gold Cup next month, or other bigger targets during the season. John's Spirit completed that same double last season, taking this of 129 and the PPGC subsequently off 139. He comes into this off 147 and I am sure connections will not want to be going any higher than that for his attempt to retain the PPGC so this really does look like a prep race. The likes of Champion Court, Claret Cloak, Benny's Mist and Ericht look to be using this as a starting point for the season and look to have plenty of weight but a horse further down the handicap really catches the eye. The Twiston-Davis runner Astracad looks to have been laid out for this. He has dropped to a mark of 138 after a one-paced looking seasonal debut at Market Rasen 3 weeks ago but he would have needed that and he finished a fine 5th in this race last year off 142. He has also previously won a class 2 handicap here off 138 and he looks to have everything in his favour today. Sybarite carried the same colours to victory in the Pertemps qualifier yesterday, showing that the Twister hasn't lost the knack of getting one ready for a big handicap and the 8/1 on offer at Ladcrooks this morning looks a very nice e/w price.
I also think Ballyglasheen is worth a bet in the 3.10 at Cheltenham against Paul Nicholls hotpot Calipto and Triumph winner Tiger Roll. I backed Ballyglasheen for the Fred Winter having passed his horse box on the M5 on the way to the races, but unfortunately he was badly hampered early in the race and subsequently pulled up. He has, however, already won around Prestbury Park, showing a nice attitude to land the Triumph Hurdle Trial last December, and his victory in the Swinton Hurdle in May showed he is a decent animal. At around the 5/1 mark Ballyglasheen looks the value bet in this.
Mornin Ascot 2.20 Viztoria 2.55 Hadaatha 3.30top notch to to 4.45 Chavez Cheltenham 2.35 claret cloak 3.45 mon parrain 4.25 fox cub Be lucky.
