This promises to be a cracking renewal and the state of the ground is going to play a major part. We have the brilliant 5f specialist Sole Power who will find it difficult if the ground comes up soft, progressive 3yos, the lightly raced and progressive 4yo Music Master, top 2yo Tiggy Wiggy; just about every entry has a chance. If the going comes up soft I would be all over a likely outsider in Hot Streak. He has had just 3 races over 5f on ground softer than good and has won all 3. As a 2yo he ran on strongly to win at York and followed up in a G3 at Ascot with a very impressive 4l win over Outer Space with Extortionist a further 4½l back. Relative to the other sprints that day that was a pretty fast time of 1m 0.24s (slow by 0.74s). Other sprinters on show that day included Steps, Tropics and Music Master. On his only outing this year over 5f on ground softer than good he won a G2 at Haydock with something in hand from Pearl Secret with Kingsgate Native 3l back. Forget his runs over 6f. His only other runs over 5f this year have resulted in: Newmarket 5f Good to firm. Btn ¾L Sole Power - Travelled strongly, chased leaders, headway to join leaders 2f out, every chance and ridden over 1f out, led inside final furlong, headed and no extra final 50yds, lost 2nd close home Ascot 5f good. Beaten 1½L Sole Power - Chased leaders, ridden and strong challenge from 1f out, ran on under pressure, held final strides York 5f Good. Beaten 1¼L Sole Power - Tracked leaders, headway 2f out, ridden entering final furlong, driven and not quicken last 100yds As implied above, a case could be made for virtually all the runners, but I think if the ground comes up softer than good he will have an outstanding chance.
Stick put up Tiggy Wiggy for the Abbaye on the Arc thread back in August. The odds will not be enormous for a two year old getting lumps of weight of the older horses but I was told the same horse at Longchamp on Sunday by somebody that I know who is based in France, so word is getting around. Sole Power will need genuine good ground at worst and I gave up on Hot Streak ages ago.
Can't say I blame you QM re Hot Streak. But he's been running over the wrong trip and/or wrong going and still run some good races. I think his day will come. Don't forget he has been saddled with Frank Spencer in most of his races.
I am in no doubt that she wins. I was uber confident at Newbury where she bolted up giving weight in a useful sales race and her win since his juvenile form of the highest calibre and has been firmly franked since. Sole Power is the most worthy opponent but I am sure that many will agree that the sprinting division is as weak as we have seen in some time. They will not be able to give her the weight with her pace. 4/1 with only one bookie now, the French may let her drift but I doubt it. Get on the TIGGY WIGGY and the double with TAGHROODA!
Rangali ran in the Prix Du Petit Couvert over Abbaye course and distance on Sunday and was firmly put in his place by Mirza, who would not be considered one of the top sprinters. Maybe he was another one that wanted easier ground, although had won on Good ground at Chantilly in June.
Amazing thanks Ron. Awesome place, stunning scenery and the friendliest natives that you could wish for!
Yes, QMII, but I am hoping for soft or v.soft going on Arc day. Lot of soft-ground specialists in his pedigree? This might possibly make him an attractive e/w bet? We'll see. Certainly will not bet ante-post on Rangali.
I'd be of the same opinion of Stick that if Tiggy Wiggy shows up she'll win. Couldn't have been more impressed with her latest performance. Not 100% convinced she's a formality to turn up. Have already backed my favourite horse Maarek to win this again at 20/1. Proved he was as good as ever this year when winning at York shouldering a penalty and his 3 subsequent runs have excuses (return from an absence, slowly away & upset in stalls on ground on quick side). 20s will look absolutely huge on the day and no doubt he'll turn up her unless the incredibly unlikely scenario of quick ground.
It's a huge ask for a 2yo to win an open company G1 sprint. I see it was last done in this particular race in 1978, I think that says heaps.
I don't know about over there Oddy, but here we sometimes get a very talented baby take on the cream in the short stuff, but it's a hell of a task.
I remember back in the 1980s how we used to say every year that the French would not be winning the Prix de l’Abbaye because the two year old Sigy in 1978 was the last time that they had won it. They have only won it five times in the last forty years. We have had a few two year olds win big sprints over here but they have usually come from yards that have specialised in two year olds like Richard Hannon (remember Lyric Fantasy?). Kingsgate Native is still running today after firing blanks at stud. If you go back far enough, remember Peter O’Sullevan’s Be Friendly first won the Sprint Cup at two. Even in receipt of lumps of weight, not many of the top juveniles take up the challenge.
I concur with both points but not many juveniles this good take it on and not often are the older sprinters such a modest bunch.
A tad worrying that the Hannons plan to run TIGGY WIGGY in the Cheveley Park just nine days before the L'Abbaye. That said the yard are quoted as saying they don't think she is a Guineas filly and this is "her time". You have to think that she has to win the Cheveley Park if she is to take her chance at Longchamp and come out of the race really well. Not an ideal scenario and if I wasn't already on her I certainly wouldn't be rushing to back her now!
