OT- do you think Scotland will vote to be in or out of the union?

How do you see it going?
I think they will vote for independence.
Most Scottish businessmen I know hate the sight of Salmond and see him as merely a rabble rouser.
I agree with the Scots I've spoken with that a lot of the populace have fallen for a good orator.
Just seen on the news that the governed of the Bank of England had basically said they couldn't keep the pound.

 

I think that Scotland should stay but I believe that they will go. I have no idea at the upheaval that this will cause if they get total independence as they are talking about having their own economy.

The first question I have is: will this give Scotland a seat on OPEC? Do England and Wales export any oil themselves? Secondly, what happens to Scottish firms listed on the stock market? Will they move South or will they be listed on a new exchange and what then for pension plans, insurance companies and the like.

It makes total sense to me that Scotland should not be able to use the Pound. This isn't a matter of vindictiveness on my part but it seems practical. If a married couple with a shared bank account get divorced then they are going to need their own accounts and share the debts accrued from their marriage. The same applies here, if we're going to have two economies with two Treasuries then we're going to need two currencies or it won't work (cf the mess with Greece and Germany sharing the same currency); if the Scots which to share the same economy then there's no point in going for independence as it won't come to that.

I can understand why the Yes lobby is doing well. They are tired of having been disenfranchised from everything which is very much London-centric. The attitude of Westminster needed to have changed decades ago and what we have here is a nation of people who have lost patience.

I feel that if they go their own way things are going to be an utter disaster in the medium term but I can't blame them for going along that route.

I only wish that here in Wales that we'd do the same but there's no chance of the principality being able to stand up on its own. And then the problem which faced the Scots will raise its head here more so than ever here in Wales; as far as most people are concerned Wales is only that bit running along the M4 corridor and stops dead at Abertawe (Swansea). Nothing decided in South Wales seems to be for the benefit for the North and this would really widen the North/South divide which is generally divided on the lines of the language or the Landsker line. If Scotland goes then Wales would be looking to follow and that would be a real disaster.

 

Why will a currency union "not work"? See history of Irish~UK currency union post-establishment of the Free State.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_pound

And it does reek of immature vidictiveness, same with lobbying the EU not to accept Scotland as a member state. If a people decide to choose their own way via a fair democratic process (the type the UK is trying to aid in exporting worldwide via a missile delivery system) why throw roadblocks in their way through sheer petulance. Why not accept their choice and come to an amicable transition for the benefit of both parties?

Oh and if you would actually talk to those inclined to vote yes you would see their motivations are based on a diverse array of sound reasonings, not merely following for a "good orator". Most do not like Salmond, but they realise Salmond will be around for the next 10 years max, the opportunity to forge their own future remains.

You may not want to but if you have a read through the thread on GC you will see much of the logic behind the current strength of the Yes vote, and the laughable ineptitude of the Westminster establishment in their complacency over the prevailing mood among the Scottish public.

 

It it's a Yes vote then I think the Scots will have a financially difficult future for some time to come.
Mind you it won't be too clever here either I suspect.
I think the SNP have started to believe all their own bullshit when in fact their arguments are so full of holes and ill thought out - they seem to just skirt over details when the issue seems too big.
I also really don't like this last minute bribery going on which is tantamount to Devo Max and is already causing resentment in the rest of the UK. Westminster are trying to lick Scotland's arse and we English/Welsh have no say in it !
In a normal divorce the terms are agreed by both parties not just one. If Scotland wants to vote to leave then I hope the UK fight hard for our side of the deal, and stop them from using the pound. Salmons just assumes that it will be ok and the Bank of England will be the lender of last resort to his foreign banks - ****ing unbelievable !
I also think that the Westminster government have really taken their eye off the ball and not put much thought into contingency plans for a Yes vote by being over confident.

Overall, I think there is a good chance that there will be a marginal win for Yes.
Be careful what you wish for Scotland - it might just come true...

 

My family still live in Scotland, and at the start of this campaign I was firmly in the 'No' camp - tho mainly for selfish reasons as I think it could be bad news for the North-East. However, every time that either Cameron or Osborne have campaigned on the issue I have moved more to the Yes side. Their sheer arrogance and ineptitude has been staggering. It is almost as if they are hoping for a yes win.

I do believe Scotland will be better off being ruled from Edinburgh rather than London. It won't be a bed of roses but I do believe it will be run along fairer lines than the shameful and heartless way that our own country is going. I also don't like the tactics being used over the pound and the last minute bribery.

As for companies listed on he stock exchange it will make no difference. As I understand it you can choose to list your stock on any exchange, and some UK companies already choose to be listed in the US just as others choose to list here.

Either way we are ****ed here unless something changes. We are already the most neglected region of the UK by London and we will suffer further when companies can relocate over the border for more favorable terms. Whatever the result in Scotland we need to rethink our stance on a regional assembly and get a stronger voice.

 

I do agree with you about the North East. I emigrated from the region in about '82, lived abroad for fourteen years, some more on the South coast and now in North Wales. Having seen how the UK has handled its economy over the decades I am seriously contemplating moving back to either Belgium or Norway again.

The UK, unless it's not a part of the City Money Recycling Set which generates 'magic money' seems to have now its biggest export as call centre operatives. Scotland may have a chance if it goes alone and to try to rebuild its engineering and manufacturing industries as what Germany says: build things.

I really hope that the UK isn't threatening to block Scotland from joining in the EU. That's vindictiveness which we can all do without. And, of course, Scotland won't be lumbered with the ever increasingly useless Trident.

I don't think that a regional assembly would be any use. It would still be run from Westminster and have its own tier of management and taxes and won't do anything. I seriously suggest that England would benefit as a whole if the capital moved Northwards from the Thames to Birmingham.

 

My worry would be that both England and Scotland's economies would suffer in the medium term if the vote is YES as it will cause a lot of uncertainty in how to manage the break-up which is last thing the economy needs at the moment. On the plus side the Pound has dropped about 4% against the US Dollar since the last opinion poll and I am paid in Dollars! If Mr Tiote can accurately predict what the vote is going to be I promise to split any exchange rate gains I make with him.

The Trident question is an interesting one as if YES vote wins Scotland will ask for it to be removed and the rest of Britain has nowhere prepared to take it.

 

The way Salmond comes across he wants his cake and to eat it too.
If I'm right, he's pushed for 16 & 17 year olds to have a vote as they are easier to sway with spin and don't see the holistic picture of things.
I think we are stronger together but if there is a divorce it has to be a total one.
A lot of firms are already talking about pulling out of Scotland as are quite a few of my friends who are proud Scots who can see an economic disaster looming.
What is undeniable is that Scots will pay more as an independent state. One example being prescriptions which they get for free (as do the Welsh) and we have to pay full whack for.
All in all a breakup will lead to a massive mess and one that will take years to sort out with no party ultimately winning.
The sensible option is to devolve more powers to Holyrood and stay as a union but with a rabble rouser like Salmond in charge... I fear the worst.

 

Admittedly, I'm not as clued-in about this as I could be. The main issue for me is that this effects every single one of us yet only 8%~ have any say in it. I can't work out what's democratic about so few people affecting so many.

Also, does anyone know what would happen to all the subsidies the scots get from Westminster? Specifically the free prescriptions and education

 

This isn't a Westminster subsidy. The Scots use a proportion of their general funding to pay for free prescriptions and free university education at the expense of other services. If they get independence then they would no longer receive any funding from Westminster, and in return Westminster would receive no tax income from Scotland.

 

Having seen the YES campaigns videos and advertising i would say they look very slick. Salmond is very slippery, he reminds me of Tony Blair and their marketing of their message is very "New Labour" of the late 90`s, all style and no substance. I think persuading the Government to allow 16-18 year old to vote was a masterstroke. These people are still technically kids, they should not be allowed to vote on an issue of such importance. How an earth can a 16 year old youth make an informed decision based on their experiences be allowed to vote for independence. They have no experience in life yet! But because of the idealism of youth I would think that the majority of them will vote for independence. I already see Scotland as a separate country anyway, as do most other countries in the world. This is just a power trip for Salmond and his cronies. I think they will vote Yes but I fear that the will have years or decades of huge problems to follow when they do. Everybody benefits to some degree in the United Kingdom, some more than others. I think Scotland has a pretty good deal at the minute, far better than other parts of the UK and a bit pf me hopes they do vote yes, just to see the chaos that will unfold after the vote..

 

I was coming to the end of my stag month (yes, you read that right) when I was in the Comedy Club in London on the night of Blair's first election win. They even stopped the show so that we could "enjoy ourselves by watching the election results come in" (and, no we didn't get a refund for the lack of what they called comedians). I remember a young lad, perhaps about eightteen, pissed up and happy, rolling up to us to the bar and saying how we was pleased that Labour were in and that (and I can't work out where he got this line from) "things are going to get better".

So we asked, "Do you remember the last time that this lot were in?" Unlikely as Thatcher had been in for a geological age.
"No."
"So you have no recollection how things were like then?"
"No."
"So, why are you celebrating?"

He confessed to not knowing and then wobbled off.

Yes, the idealism of youth. I was there too in my teens with my duffel coat, scarf and out to change the world, so I know that it's like.

 

The No campaign will win by 5 - 10 points.

A lot of people who say they will vote Yes change their mind on the day. Also, I think seeing what the possibility of a Yes vote has done to the value of shareholdings in Scottish based PLC's and the value of the pound will have changed a few minds.

It would be a bad day for both sides if Scotland voted for independence but both would survive, the rest of the UK better than the Scots.

 

England in the financial period 2012/2013 provided £17.6 billion as that was the gap between tax raised in Scotland and their expenditure, we do not get any benefit from Scottish taxation, One of the other big scare tactics used by the SNP is the break up of the NHS in Scotland, the NHS in Scotland is run by the Scottish Assembly, England plays no part in the NHS in Scotland. As far as the other great lie about Oil and Gas revenue being the saving grace is that this is actually falling now, the main reserves of oil are around Shetland and they have a stated aim in the event of Scotland leaving the UK of looking for stronger links with Norway. The lastest scare mongering is that Sterling will crash and we will have a major disaster if Scotland goes it's own way, I actually think we would be better off, certainly to the tune of £17.6 billion and rising, England far from just being a service sector economy works at the high quality end of science, manufacturing in aerospace and motor industry, the majority of Formula One teams are based in England, medical science, film and television, intellectual properties and many more quality based industries.

The final irony for me is that the SNP want independence for the UK but are more than happy to run towards the EU who's aim is a federal Europe with central control of all members, of course France and Spain would go to block membership as this would give a precedent for the Basque and Catalonian regions who are demanding independence.

 

Right ok, I've lived in Scotland for half my life, all the people I knew at school have been bragging about their stupid choice, my facebook feed is infected with Yes vote campaign s**t. There's rarely an informed opinion. You think anybody has actually sat down and read both agendas before coming to an informed conclusion? You'd be f**ing lucky if they'd even bothered with the TV debates. I've been brought through their education system, and I can tell you now, letting the daft f**ing braveheart quoting youths vote on something so economically important is so f**ing irresponsible it's unreal.

Scotland is a proud country, and quite frankly Salmond, the slimy son of a bitch, has given the world a lesson in personal careerism and vulture-esque opportunism. The recession hit everywhere hard, and he's using that recent memory, a long with the patriotic nature of every Scotsmen, and the vile xenophobic attitudes more than a minority display towards their southern neighbours, to cement a legacy for himself. He's a loudmouth toad of the highest order.

How did anyone think the TV debates were going to go? A smarmy Englishman telling the facts of the situation, imposing rules and regulations against the natives, or the Scottish loudmouth motoring on patriotically?! I can't help but think, the one role in which Gordon Brown would have been anything other than a political liability, and he was the one put the nail in the coffin of him not being in a position to do anything.

The pros of Independence
They have Scottish w**kers in charge instead of English ones.

The negatives of Independence
They will only have Scottish w**kers to blame when something inevitably goes wrong.

That's not to say I like the "No" campaign's tactics either, the whole thing reeks of dirty politics, but the process of independence will cause havoc. All these informed voters I'm hearing about (there's so obviously no such thing in today's politics, otherwise politicians wouldn't feel the need to go town to town gurning at people) will find that, much like when any different political party takes control of things, some areas get worse, and some barely, and I mean f**ing barely, get better, and historically, countries of a similar size seem to be the worst effected when there are financial troubles across the board. You'd have thought someone displaying the Irish flag would have been able to give them a slap of reality

 

They will vote out the north east will get shafted

 

A friend of mine joked that, if the vote came in as a NO and Scotland stayed... the rest of the UK should vot on whether THEY wanted them in.

 

Well, we could separate from them if we wanted.

 

we should... It's like if I were to say to my girl, "hey, I'm considering whether to stay with you, or go with this new lass at work"... Then after a couple of months going, I decided I'll just stay with you... now let's have sex"

 

And not just the same old sex that we used to have: new and improved sex where you do all the work and I just lie back with a smile on my face