Sea The Moon runs on Sunday

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By John Ingles -- published 5th September 2014

John Ingles previews Germany's premier flat race with Arc favourite Sea The Moon looking to cement his Longchamp credentials...

What looks for certain is that Sunday’s race will give Sea The Moon, who still looked very much a raw talent last time, further valuable experience on the way to the Arc.



Current Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe favourite Sea The Moon puts his unbeaten record on the line again in Germany’s top race, the Grosser Preis von Baden, on Sunday. The son of Sea The Stars has won all four of his starts, but it was his eleven-length win in the Deutsches Derby at Hamburg a couple of months ago that really raised his profile outside Germany and put him fully in the Arc picture. It was a remarkable performance, and not just for the way he coasted home so far clear of the rest. His jockey that day, Christophe Soumillon, deliberately brought him wide off the home turn to race alone up the stand rail to pre-empt the tendency to hang right which he’d shown to quite an alarming degree on his previous start. Hamburg is a right-handed track, but Baden-Baden is the other way round which should mean that Sea The Moon’s jockey on Sunday, Cristian Demuro (Soumillon has riding commitments in France), won’t need to make any such manoeuvres. Whether that proves a problem going right-handed again at Longchamp next month is another matter, but what looks for certain is that Sunday’s race will give Sea The Moon, who still looked very much a raw talent last time, further valuable experience on the way to the Arc.



This will be Sea The Moon’s first start against older horses in a race which has gone to members of the three-year-old generation (including two German Derby winners) five times since 2000. The last three-year-old winner, incidentally, was the filly Danedream in 2010 who went on to win the Arc a month later. However, none of the older horses in Sunday’s line-up have put up a performance to rival Sea The Moon’s form, and his closest rival, on paper at least, looks to be fellow three-year-old Lucky Lion. The runner-up at Hamburg, Lucky Lion’s chances of turning the tables on Sea The Moon look remote, but Lucky Lion has since gone on to Group 1 success himself in the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis at Munich when dropped back to a mile and a quarter. His defeat of the high-class Noble Mission was Lucky Lion’s best performance yet, but there were doubts about his stamina prior to the Deutsches Derby, and there has to be a question mark about him showing the same form as last time, let alone improving again, back over Sunday’s longer trip.



Lucky Lion’s trainer Andreas Lowe fields another three-year-old, the blinkered Sirius, who is a much more proven stayer and is another colt going the right way. He too beat older rivals in a Group 1 last time when landing the Grosser Preis von Berlin from a couple who re-oppose him on Sunday, the mare Berlin Berlin (representing the same connections as Sea The Moon) and last year’s German Derby winner Lucky Speed, but that form doesn’t look anything special and a lot more will be required from Sirius who side-stepped a meeting with Sea The Moon at Hamburg when taking on older horses instead at the Derby meeting.



Of the older horses in the line-up, one of the more interesting ones is the lightly-raced four-year-old Ivanhowe who started favourite for last year’s German Derby. He wasn’t seen out again at three after that, but made a pleasing comeback this year when winning the Group 2 Gerling-Preis at Cologne from another of Sunday’s runners Night Wish. Ivanhowe wasn’t discredited when sixth in the Grand Prix de Chantilly last time and returns here after a three-month break. The other older horse of note is Terrubi who hasn’t had too much racing himself and makes his first start for Andreas Wohler. Previously with Pascal Bary in France, he’s been running over longer trips and put up a career-best effort when beating Brown Panther in the Prix Maurice de Nieuil at Longchamp last time; a well-run race could see him staying on for a place here.



Recommendation:

Back Sea The Moon in the Grosser Preis von Baden



Timeform weight-adjusted ratings:

135p Sea The Moon

129 Lucky Lion

127 Terrubi

125 Ivanhowe

124 Sirius

 

It will be an interesting race that's for sure. The plans are already in place for SEA THE MOON to stay in training at 4 before being retired to stud whatever happens here and at Longchamp.

 

I read yesterday that Ascot are sending their international marketing man over to Baden Baden to meet Sea The Moon’s owners who have already expressed an interest in running him at Royal Ascot in 2015.

 

Should have took the money!

 

Hawk Wing won the Lockinge by 11L,Harbinger won the KG 11L...both unconvincing races at face value although the former was much better than the latter.

Pinch of salt needed with both of those results and with the German results of this horribly named and overrated colt.

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With Treve now replacing Sea the Moon as favourite it doesn't look a great Arc at this point. It could all change with next Sunday's race but there's nothing too solid out there at the moment.