Just for a bit of fun, I thought it would be interesting to see how forum members "read" a race when trying to make a selection. To avoid being influenced by other's thoughts, I would ask that anyone who would like to post their thoughts on this race, do so without reading the thread contents first. That way we can get a good comparison of how the good folks on here read a race. If possible, I would like to understand how you see the race, chances of the favourite, reasons for selection etc, rather than just a selection who you think will win. I am interested in your REASONING. ************************************************************** Here my thoughts on the 1.55 York: I deliberately chose a race with little collateral form to go on - the DBS Premier Yearling Sales race with almost 160K to the winner. Although many of the 2YOs running already have an official BHA rating, many remain unexposed and finding a potential winner is by no means straightforward. Or is it? Richard Hannon's Kool Kompany is top-rated on 111 and has already been tried at the highest level, going down narrowly to Aiden O'Brien's Dick Whittington in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh a couple of weeks ago. Before that, the Middleham-owned Jeremy colt had won 5 out of 6, including 2 Group 2s at the Curragh and Maisons-Laffitte, only disappointing in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Given that he has to concede weight here, and that his only flop came in a very big field, I will pass over the 5/2 favourite and look elsewhere. That is where it becomes difficult. The next highest rated on official ratings is Kevin Ryan's Fast Act (OR 106) and there is money this evening for him, into 5/1. His rating is entirely based on his 2nd place in Goodwood's Molecomb stakes but I am not sure I would rate that contest too highly in the context of this race. Not for me. So now I am looking for something unexposed, and the one my eye has landed on is Richard Hannon's Sawaahel. 1 run, 1 win, in a Newmarket maiden over 6 Furlongs, he showed a really nice attitude to make all, kicking on again when challenged at the furlong pole and holding on from John Gosden's Swot, who has some really fancy entries and is clearly well regarded. Third-placed Steal The Scene has since won at Windsor despite hanging badly and the overall form looks fairly decent. This wouldn't be the first time that the Hannon second string has won a big race so at e/w odds of 18/1 my pick is Sawaahel.
I can't really add much to this Oddy - especially as I have read all the thread But I too like to look for something that "could be anything" as it is especially satisfying if you latch on to something that IS something. I can't be too analytical about my own reading of form, illogically, I tend to be instinctive as much as scientific. I have noticed however that a lot of times you and I end up on the same selection ....... read into that what you will!
Now IMO this horse is the most unexposed of the lot!! Tick The Boxes, he certainly does that alrite. My view of the favourite is if he wins, he will win comfortably but would the Ireland race have taken abit out go him, he does like the ground soft which he may not get and to give weight to the rest after a hard run like that may be asking a bit much of a 2yr old who has quite a few (good) but a few miles on the clock but he he may show just too much class of the field. Fast Act is also interesting coming thrd to Tiggy Wiggy in the super sprint and did well at glorious but found Cotai too good but has beaten a few of these in the past including Beacon (who I know is not in the field but is a good horse.)but he always seems to find one or two that bit better than him on the day. My selection had 3 races and left his 1st run behind him and won a maiden in windsor made all and when shaken up he stretched away and really caught my eye the way he responded for such a novice horse when asked to quicken, the third race he was expected to improve but didn't really , came second to Kibaar who himself came second in a strong race today to Felix Leiter and 1st was Mattmu who himself was fancied for the 1st race and has some form that does stand up so my selections form does have some substance to it but he is a huge price' the stable has just hit so e sort of form and in these huge handicaps you do get the occasional big price winner @ 40/1 he is that price due to his lack of inexperience but there is definite ew value rather than just punting on the fav who may just be too good but a small punt on this fellow he should be there, there abouts
I'm not much help because I can't be given a race and analyse it properly. The first thing I do is skim the cards to see if there is a race I'm interested in. If there isn't, that's it. If there is, it depends what type of race it is. If it's a 2yo race I like to find a horse with one run that came 5th or 6th in a field of 12 or more on début, decent time, not beaten far, ran well and with promise and nicely bred. Then I look at what the other horses in that début race have done. A check on the going and then look at the price. If it's a short price I leave it. If not I then look to see if others in the race have better claims to win. If so I leave it. With other races it's usually a horse catches my eye (eg lightly raced and improving). Again look at its form as above and then see if I can get it beat. If I can I leave it. If I can't seem to get it beat, I'll have a look at ATR and see what Timeform say about each horse. If I'm convinced to change my mind I leave it. However, if I'm convinced it's between 2 or 3 and the prices are right I'll look at the odds of backing the 3 to beat the field. If that is better value than backing one odds on shot to win then I'll "back" them accordingly. I take notice of race times, the going on which the horse has shown its best form, the manner of victories, jockeys best suited to the horse. For collateral form I'm interested in why a horse finished behind another one rather than simply by how many lengths. Basically, I look at the race from as many angles as possible. However I don't give myself many races to look at. Even so, I still get a bit careless sometimes. Will I ever learn? The race reading continues after the race if I get beat. It's interesting trying to find why it won when you know it has and should improve subsequent race reading
Or he's that price for a reason and be way out the back for the whole race, which will put my theory to the bin
KOOL KOMPANY is a very tough juvenile. Added to that he has bags of class too. He will be very difficult to beat and the yard will also have a good yardstick to the potential dangers. Kevin Ryan has won the race in two of the last three runnings and has a pair of very worthy entrants. FAST ACT is a clear second on the ratings but I really don't think he has enough scope to improve past Kool Kompany. NEW PROVIDENCE was a good third in a decent race recently too and the Palmer yard are in fine form. VALLEY OF FIRE boasts a C&D win and could improve enough to take a hand, again the yard is in super nick. At long prices the one I can see improving enough to get somewhere near is ARTHUR MARTINLEAKE who seems to be getting better with each run. The more I look though the more I fancy the chances of the ugly brute that is KOOL KOMPANY. At the weights he looks outstanding value and I have doubled him up with TIGGY WIGGY in the second.
Good thread Oddie. In response I have written according to how I would approach this particular race from a punting perspective and the conclusion made. First of all I start with the favourite and ask if I can see any possible reasons why he should not be favourite with regard trip, going, class etc. In this case I can find no reason why Kool Kompany should not be favourite and so I agree at first look with the bookie. I then look over the form of the horses behind him in the betting and see if I can find any obvious reason why one should beat the fav . In this instance I can see good form and progressive profile for Fast Act, Valley of Fire, Markaz, Arthur Martinleake & Sawaheel. After looking down the form of those mentioned I have come to the conclusion that I can make no enthusiastic case for any of them beating Kool Kompany if he runs to form. On ratings were this a handicap only one Fast Act would even give him a race. I then ask is the favourite a betting proposition at the price being offered? On first look I would say yes definitely, 11-4 for a horse so clear on ratings is fair enough. I then factor in my instinctive view which sways me the other way, this view is that he had a hard race in Ireland recently and has been on the go quite a while with some hard fought finishes. We are nearing September and the horse had it's first run in April. I take a cautious view that in a field of 20 with perhaps half a dozen or more unexposed horses from decent yards that I do not need a bet that much. Betting conclusion I believe Kool Kompany has the best chance of winning but that my instinctive view is that it's too volatile a race. I feel could find a more likely 11-4 shot to oblige elsewhere today. I would likely feel it worth a chance however at possibly 9-2. Likely winner Kool Kompany 11-4, Runner up Fast Act 9-2 The two I would put up of interest at prices however and may tempt me to have a small play are Markaz 14-1 This horse was generally progressive and won a very good maiden. I belive he did not really like Goodwood and may continue with his improvement on a flater track. Arthur Martinleake 50-1 This is very speculative but I feel the horse has yet to show it's best and I feel it will run better than 50-1 I will not be betting but if I were the bet would be Markaz each way at 14-1 best odds with Betvictor.
I did as requested and posted the above without reading any previous posts. I am pleased to read how Wooly has also flagged up the possibility of Kool Kompanys hard races and even more interested that Stick had also singled out Arthur Martinleake as a very live outsider at a huge price. We may be onto something.
Thanks for the views lads. Any thoughts on Kool Kompany's flop at Ascot - did he not like the big field or something else amiss?
Not had an in depth look at the race but with a quick glance I would be taking on the favorite, he wasn't well away at Ascot and that seemed to unsettle him as he always leads or is prominent. If Hughsie decides against holding him up (like he did at Ascot) then his chance is improved but I wouldn't be betting at the odds. One I would take him on with is Mukhmal, I was very impressed when he won from a wide draw at Chester and I think the fast pace and step up to 6f will suit @ 25/1 you could do worse
Hi there, Thought I would share my thoughts as I like to read how individuals interpret a race. I start off by running through the card allocating points to a number of attributes. These are class of last race, win ratio based on last 6 runs, placed ratio based on last 6 runs, weight and poistion LTO compared to the class of race. The points are then added to give me an overall total. Ideally I am looking for runners that score 11 or less. In this particular race there were a lot of qualifiers so I tend to look at the top 3 or 4 lowest scorers. In honesty I wouldnt touch this race or if I was to play it would be for small stakes. Once I've established my shortlist I then take a further look at course form, conditions and performance in similar race types. My shortlist has thrown up the following. Kool Kompany Fast Act, Tachophobia, Valley of Fire and New Providence. From these Kool Kompany should go very close but VoF and New Prov seem decent e/w shouts
Incidentally Oddy, if I do fancy a horse and I spot that any of our tipsters on here have gone against it, with good reason, I go back and have a closer look, on the basis that they have seen something that I have missed, or know something I don't.
An example of one jumping out Oddy, is Dissolution in the 16.20 York tomorrow. Almost qualifies for a banker ew bet 40/1, 5/14 btn 3l by Nafaqa on début (Held up towards rear, ridden over 2f out, steady progress over 1f out, stayed on final furlong}, Nafaqa had the benefit of a race, that being a 4¾L 4th to Richard Pankhurst in the Chesham Stakes, just ¾l behind the fav Dick Whittington who has since won a G2 and a G1 (beating Kool Company) Nicely bred. By New Approach out of Portodora who is by King Mambo out of an El Gran Senor mare Has 3 G1 entries James Doyle rides again The only slight downside was that the time of his début run was nothing special. I would expect a bit of softening in the ground would be a plus (NA hated the firm) All there is to do now is to wait for the odds (5/1 or more would be nice) and then, odds permitting, study the other runners.
2 others that jumped out tomorrow at York are Cavalryman and Sole Power but those races need studying in depth. Sole Power is up against some nice sprinters, inc Hot Streak.
I see "Timeform View" has gone for the forecast fav Acaster Malbis. Can't fancy that one against mine which looks different class. I'm assuming fitness but a look in the paddock and a check on the market should confirm, hopefully.
