As an improving four year old, Harbinger won the Ormonde Stakes at Chester and then followed it up by winning The Hardwicke at Royal Ascot. Another improving four year old has won the same two races- equally easily at the same stage of his career. We all know what Harbinger did next- in the King George at Ascot! Therefore why is this other horse 25/1 for Ascot and 50/1 for the Arc De Triomphe? Is it because So You Think and St Nicholas Abbey are much better animals from the same stable - or is it the emotive hype taking sway once again? Isn't Await The Dawn an improving type and worth a bet at those odds? What do other members think of his prospects and likely targets this year?
I have a problem with this, not that the horse is very good, but I cannot at this moment bet on anything for a race that they may not be going to. After Ascot - "We always dreamt we could win a Breeders` Cup Classic with the horse. He is always a horse who has had a big jet engine but he has been a big baby. We were very worried this morning as he is a very low mover who hardly lifts his feet so it was brilliant to win in the ground. From day one he has always showed extraordinary talent. We have let him come along slowly and he is very exciting - Aidan O'Brien" I think that suggests that the Arc isn't really going to be on the radar, and also will they begin to run him over 10 furlongs from now on with a view to the BCC? Perhaps they may let him miss the KG and go down the International, Irish Champion route. I therefore think the prices are more about the potential of him missing the races rather than under estimating his talent.
Yes i'd agree. Ante post is difficult at the best of times but you really take your life in your hands backing Aidan's horses before the declarations are made. That said I do think Await the dawn is a very, very good horse. His eprformance in the Hardwicke was excellent given the conditions that day and he ran well at Chester too. If he turned up then I'd probably back him - but I'm not about to go in blind.
Nass, I half agree with you except that, should he do a "Harbinger " and run in the King George - on his favoured faster ground- then 25/1 is a massive price. Should he win that race impressively, then the Arc would automatically come into consideration. The problem is Aidan O'Brien- you never know what his real intentions are and, more to the point, does he? To me, St N.Abbey seems more likely to be his Arc horse- as opposed to So You Think- But I don't see their form as better than Await The Dawn anyway. Another really "long shot" view...Misty For Me destroyed Midday far easier than St N. Abbey did. Is she an improving, staying filly in the making who, if you forget her Oaks run, could be a real springer - wherever she goes next. I like the way she powered away from Midday and she needs watching.
because of his breeding they want to market Await The Dawn as a Stallion in the US this is why the Breeders Cup Classic will be his ultimate aim in the end.A race that Ballydoyle have never won as well.I would expect him to run in the King George bt after that i would expect to see him dropped back to 10f again and take in one of the champion stakes before heading to america.
"Is she an improving, staying filly in the making who, if you forget her Oaks run, could be a real springer - wherever she goes next. I like the way she powered away from Midday and she needs watching" She most cerainly does. Lovely, gutsy, hugely classy filly. I said at the time of the Irish 1000 that 8/1 for a Marcel Boussac winner was like taking candy from a baby. I don't know what he will do with her next but I'd be tempted to go the Vermeille / Arc route. Obviosuly nobody knows what she'll do against the boys but they have nothing to lose.
I'd agree Await The Dawn would be a cracking bet for either the KG or Arc at those prices, if you knew he was running! The problem is AOB is mob handed with his horse's, I don't think I've ever known any stable to have so many Good horses in it, at the same time. He has the last 3 Irish Derby Winners, Fame And Glory, Cape Blanco and Treasure Beach. Then he has Misty For Me who looked like a class act on Saturday, when was the last time Midday was beaten that easily. Then he has St Nicholas Abbey and So You Think. He has enough good horses to field a high class Arc field himself, so were does Await The Dawn fit in? I think Await The Dawn would have contested the POW as would Cape Blanco had it not been for So You Think's involvement, instead Cape Blanco was running over to short a trip and Await The Dawn had to make do with running up in trip in a G2. So Await The Dawn has already been held back to make way for his more high profile stablemate, so is he going to let Await The Dawn take his chance in these races, against So You Think and St Nicholas Abbey. We have seen in the 2 Derby's that AOB doesn't have a clue who his best horses are, Treasure Beach proved the best, yet the top jockeys were on Seville and Recital at Epsom, so I wouldn't be atall concerned if AOB doesnt rate Await The Dawn as highly as So You Think. If he wants to go to the Breeders Cup with his team, then I think skipping the Arc would give the likes of Await The Dawn a real chance of success, the Arc comes a little to close to the BC for my liking, and we see odd results like when Dylan Thomas was turned over in the Turf. AOB could potentaially have 5 or 6 realistic chances in the KG and the Arc, and it would be very interesting if he goes in all guns blazing with all his best horses. The bookings for all of these horses at the BC aswell will be interesting
So You Think's arrival has certainly clouded the Ballydoyle picture. So too St Nicks return to form to a lesser extent. I've no doubt without those two we'd have seen Await The Dawn or Cape Blanco in the Tattersalls; Coronation Cup and Prince Of Wales. King George all we know is that St Nicholas Abbey seems to be their main gun and it and it seems Treasure Beach or Seville are possibles? So You Think I would guess will take in the Eclipse then wait for the Juddmonte and Irish Champion? He could possibly run in the King George too but just have a feeling they'll keep him to 10f for now?
Await the Dawn didn't win the Ormonde Stakes at Chester; he won a 10f race there. I think I'm right but stand corrected.
There's only one Har-binger, there's only one ha-ar-binger, one ha-ar-bin ger, there's only one ha-ar-bi-in-ger
I had to look that up Tam as I wasn't sure how to interpret "coup" in this context: en prendre un coup (informal) to have a blast, a great time; to be affected by s.t.; to take a blow, hammering (figurative) My French isn't too good.
Oh yes. My party pieces are: Maybe Baby, That'll Be The Day, Peggy Sue (Buddy Holly) Heartbreak Hotel, All Shook Up, Don't Be Cruel, Are You Lonesome Tonight, Teddy Bear (Elvis) Great Balls of Fire (GLL) Unforgettable (NCC) Fly Me To the Moon (FS) My son does a fantastic My Way that always brings the house down. We're beginning to sound like a demolition company. I clear the place and my son pulls it down.
