On Saturday we have the Eclipse at Sandown, it's usually the race were the generations clash for the first time, but this year there doesn't seem to be any 3yos taking there chance!* It's not easy at this stage to work out which horses will run, so il just put up the odds of the fancied runners that I think will run., with the best odds available* So You Think 13/8* Workforce 7/4* Snow Fairy 10/1* Cityscape 16/1* 20/1 bar* Canford Cliffs has an entry but that's simply a publicity stunt, so that breeders believe*he will stay 10fs when he retires to stud. We won't ever see Canfird Cliffs over 10fs. It looks like it will be a small field, but *it's not lacking in quality. The quality of the runners is probably what has kept the 3yos away. I don't mind these smaller fields though as atleast the best horses aren't going to have to worry about traffic problems, so the best horse will win. So You Think got beat at Ascot, but *he wasn't disgraced, he just got beat by a very good horse, and going by how far he and Rewilding pulled clear of the rest, it's hard to argue that Rewilding hasnt improved loads from 3-4. He is clearly a much better horse than the one that was comprehensively tonked by Workforce in last years Derby. So despite getting beat I think So You Think's Ascot form is strong, and on firmer ground, with a more patient ride I feel he can improve on that performance. So You Think has also received a big positive this morning. Obviously Ryan Moore is retained by Stoute so he will ride Workforce, so there has been a big question mark over who would get the ride. It seems that his regular jockey back in Australia Steven Arnold got in contact with AOB to offer his services. He rides Star Witness in the July Cup the week after so he is happy to come *over a week early to ride So You Think. It's unclear wether AOB has taken him up on the offer, but surely he would be stupid to refuse, this guy *knows the horse better than anyone.* Workforce is a horse who I've doubted in the past, particularly after that shocker in the King George, but he proved his class in the Arc. He is probably better suited to 12f even if he is relatively unexposed over 10fs. He did run well in the Brigadier Gerard stakes at Sandown over 10fs, carrying a penalty in a workman like victory on seasonal debut. He did get beat last year on seasonal debut so we can probably expect a good bit of improvement to come. He probably lacks a blistering turn of foot, that the very best 10f horses require, but if there was plenty of cut in the ground, and off a strong gallop, which he is guaranteed with his pacemaker Confront in the race, then he would be hard to beat, and looking at how Rewilding ground So You Think down, then it would be no surprise to see a similar scenario, with Workforce outstaying his more speedier rival. The stable form of Stoute is a major negative, and if things don't start picking up with his runners in the week, then it would be hard to fancy Workforce.* Snow Fairy is really the only other runner who deserves a mention, she won 2 Oaks and a couple of Micky mouse G1s out in Japan against colts. She is a very good fillie but she is going to find this tough on seasonal debut, she is going to have to have improved loads on her form last season. It would take a Zarkava like performance for her to beat the big 2, and I dont for 1 second think Snow Fairy will ever get near the level of the great fillie Zarkava. Miracles do happen, but 10/1 for a miracle, isn't great odds.* At this stage I'm undecided on which horse I will be siding with, it's completely ground dependent. Il back Workforce if the ground is good or softer, though i wont have a bet if Stoute's stable form stays the same. If there's firm mentioned in the going then So You Think will be my selection. So my selection wont be decided until the morning of the race *
Ok Rewilding, has he really improved? He beat Sri Putra by six lengths, which to me means he beat a Group 3 at best horse (I rate around 105) by twelve pounds making him run to around 120 in my books, I don't really see this as a major improvement, I just think So You Think ran to about 120 rather than his mark (126). The handicapper disagrees with me and has Rewilding at 127 with So You Think and left Sri Putra at 113. I am not going to say whether Rewilding has improved, instead I will wait to see how he runs in the King George or the like. The point is, I think So You Think is overrated by the handicapper and whilst I think he can run to 127, I don't think he has shown that in the Northern Hemisphere as of yet. Workforce is rated 1lb higher on official marks but is longer odds, and the reason I agree with the market is that I think Workforce is an out and out 12 furlong horse and I think in a small field at Sandown he could be in trouble with a horse who can quicken in strides (So You Think did that at the Royal Meeting). Snow Fairy has 8lbs to find on the official handicap and I would also state that she will probably need her return (Ed Dunlop stated it before he withdrew her from Pretty Polly) and that makes her look underpriced at 10/1. She could yet go elsewhere. I am very tempted to back So You Think antepost, and if I get some fair returns today I may well take some of that 13/8. The weather looks set to be good on Thursday and Friday.
your right about it being a a Coolmore PR exercise in regards to the entry of Canford Cliffs racing he was never gonna turn up,Its the same thing they did 2 years ago when they entered Yeats for the King George etc. SYT for me im still not a believer in Workforce think he won a very poor derby and a very poor arc,I think he is a good horse but no more.
Famous, lets not forget Yeats was the jolly for the Epsom Derby before he got injured. Food for thought isn't it? How different it could have been.
No such thing as a good thing. Didn't Midday get rolled in the Pretty Polly? Yeats may have strolled away with the Derby, but he could just as easily have been handed a flogging.
Had he won the Derby, he probably wouldn't have been given the opportunity to win 4 Ascot Gold Cups. So it was a blessing in disguise that he missed the Derby. He won the Coronation Cup so I think he proved anyways, that he had the speed for 12fs
Workforce - Always liked him since he cut through the field at Goodwood. Other than a horror show in the King George he's done little wrong. He doesn't have the turn of foot of a miler but I don't think its slow either. He quickens very well IMO for a 10f or 12f horse when he needs to. So You Think - For me if Steven Arnold is available then why not? He knows the horse so that could be a good move and I've stopped trying to work out what's happening with Ballydoyle in terms of their jockeys? Will Mr Moore be on his way there next season? AOB blamed himself when Rewilding won at Ascot so it will be good to see how he comes back. Between those two I really wouldn't know which way to go right now! Snow Fairy is a very good horse - the Hong Kong Cup she won I think had Vision D'Etat; Stacelita & Planteur in the line up - all very useful performers so she's no slouch. Had she a run under her belt, getting 3lbs, then I'd possibly look again, but it being her first run back then no. Add to that she's only running in this because the Curragh had too much rain it's all the feel of them needing to get a run into her before the second half of the season. Canford Cliffs was never a serious entry for me once they targetted it with So You Think. However I'm unsure if he'll never try 10f? If he takes the Sussex in at the end of July the next mile target could feasibly be the QEII in mid-October so thats a long time off the track. They may give him a break and then bring him back for that and the Breeders Cup but if they give him another run I can't see what they could do other than step him up to 10f in something like the Juddmonte or Irish Champion? ....just posted too - the final eight declared are Workforce; So You Think; Snow Fairy; Confront; Cape Blanco; Jan Vermeer; Alexander Pope & Sri Putra
"No such thing as a good thing." Indeed cyclonic - as those who heavily backed Carlton Corgi yesterday and at Epsom found out to their cost....... This is a really tough race to work out. I'd imagine the winner will be either Workforce or So you Think. i'd probably just about plump for So You Think based on Workforce being a classic 1 mile 4 horse but I wonlt be getting involved.
FYI.....PP go So You Think 11/10 Workforce 7/4 Snow Fairy 8/1 Cape Blanco 14/1 Sri Putra 20/1 Alexander Pope 25/1 Confront 50/1 Jan Vermeer 50/1 Shergs, would be interested to know which firm had SYT at 13/8??
KS, I love the idea that Snow Fairy won a couple of Mickey Mouse G1s out in Japan against colts. The Japanese horses are so bad that they sent a couple of them over to Longchamp last season and one finished second in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe after running respectably in a warm-up race three weeks before. The other one subsequently led home a Japanese 1-2 in the Dubai World Cup in March. On the current IFHA ratings, dated 23 May 2011, So You Think is rated 126 after his two victories in Ireland, Rewilding is rated 121 after the Dubai Sheema Classic and Snow Fairy is rated 118 after the Hong Kong Cup. On the 27 March 2011 ratings, Workforce is rated 128 for his Arc victory over Nakayama Festa (127) with So You Think rated 126 after the Mackinnon Stakes down under. Let us assume that Rewilding improved to win the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes so that we can say that So You Think ran to his rating of 126. On the ratings, that still makes Workforce the best horse in the race and there has to be every chance of good ground on Saturday looking at the five-day forecast. The betting and the ratings do suggest that the race is a match if the big two run to their form.
It feels like every one of AOB's horses I have backed and lost in Group races this year has won next time out, so I'll be all over So You Think, especially if I can get 13/8.
Those bookie chappies have seemingly got the heat about right and, at this stage, I would say that the contest is one of ‘no bet’ for me. Cityscape though would have been very interesting, given Roger Charlton’s comments at the weekend that he’s probably the best he’s trained, but is an absentee.
Just noticed Snow Fairy has an alternative entry at in the Lancs. Oaks too so she could go there should they want an easier start. Interesting in there is Cape Blanco @ 14/1 who finished ahead of Workforce twice last season too and was arguably Ballydoyles best horse last season with SNA being out. For me was sent to the less than ideal Queen Anne as they had the Prince Of Wales mapped out for So You Think . If eight go to post he could be worth the each way money?
Jumpers....Stanjames were 13/8. Though I've just had another check on Oddschecker, and the best is 5/4
Id agree Flyingbolt......If Cape Blanco can get back to the form he showed in last seasons Irish champion stakes, then he would probably win this. I didn't realise he was an intended runner. He hasnt really sparkled since that performance, but I'd be prepared to give him another chance, he had a wide draw in the Arc, we can also forgive a run in Dubai, and the Queen Anne was to short
Nass i concur as John Magnier admitted in a interview if he hadn't had got injured and won the Derby that year he would have been retired at Stud its funny how things work out a bit like Kauto Star when he fell in the champion chase he prob would have never been tried up in trip etc life in general has a funny way of working out as john lennon said life is what happens when your making other plans
Shergar, another joke of a Group 1 Race! Only 4 trainers with entries this time. What on earth is going on?? How long before we have a two horse race for one of Flat Racing's historic greats?
Big operations like Coolmoore, Godolphin, K Abdullah, and a few others are monopolising racing. Wether that's a bad thing im not so sure, they do pump slot of money into the sport. The only rule i would bring in, is a trainer can only run a maximum of 2 horses in each race, this would make the likes of Micheal Tabor give some of his expensive horses to other trainers, as he wouldnt be allowed to have 5 runners from AOB in races like the Derby. I think another reason the field is small is largely to do with the class of SYT and Workforce
Good point about the maximum runners per trainer Shergar. I have been mulling over that one for some time and think it could be worth an experiment. It would certainly alleviate some of the tedium brought on by races such as yesterday's Irish Derby. Also, AOB has been known to run more than one pacemaker and have them upsides coming into the straight to form an obstacle for any danger coming from off the pace. That certainly needs to be stamped out.
