Rosberg vs Hamilton: The race for the championship v1.5

Update 1.2

So We are now half way through the season.

Rosberg has now pulled away a 14 point gap which is a magic number! this is the equivalent of a 2 race cushion if he finishes 2nd to Hamilton or the gap between 1st and 2nd in the final double points round.

However. If both drivers would draw on points currently (including the wins hamilton needs to get even) then Hamilton would win on count back of race victories. So theoretically Hamilton still has an upper hand in this Title fight.

Lets see what happens in the final 9 races.

Another point to make is if Rosberg had won in silverstone then he would have had enough points to finish 2nd in every race and only need to win the final round to win the championship. It was a vital day for Lewis. Now however he needs to win 3 more races and the final race to get that kind of a gap back (or 5 races wins and finish 2nd in the final race)

 

Wow Interesting F1 Analysis - http://thisisf1.com/2014-f1-latest-drivers-and-constructors-championship-standings/

 

it's gonna be Hamilton.
No it's not, it's Rosberg
Nope it's Hamilton
Nah if the points fall this way then it's Rosberg
but if the points go the other way then it's Hamilton
and if retirements happen one way then it's Rosberg
and if retirements go the other way then it's Hamilton

AND IF A CERTAIN BUTTERFLY FLAPS IT'S WINGS IN A CERTAIN WAY IN A CERTAIN COUNTRY ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WORLD THEN IT'S ROSBERG
BUT IF THE SAME BUTTERFLY FLAPS IT'S WINGS IN A DIFFERENT WAY THEN IT'S HAMILTON

 

...Probably

 

So the gap is 14 points. Let's assume Rosberg is going to win tomorrow. That's at least 21 points.

7 races remain after this (not including Abu Dhabi), so that means that it's going to be an odd difference between race wins if one of them wins every race. Because of this, Hamilton needs to be within 14 points of Rosberg before Abu Dhabi to stand a realistic chance of winning. Let's say he wins the next 7 races 4-3 infront of Rosberg, he's going to have to get 2nd place tomorrow. If he wins 5-2 then he's going to gain 21 points and he'll need to finish 8th or higher.

So really, he should be aiming for 8th tomorrow. Any lower and he's going to give himself the challenge of winning 6 of the next 7, any more and he's risking overtakes unless he gets 2nd. 3rd place is effectively 8th place tomorrow and there's no point in him trying too hard to get any higher.

I'm sure this makes no sense whatsoever to most of you, but it's what's happening

 

Realistically, I think it might be over for Hamilton. Rosberg is showing no signs of faultering and even if he suffers a DNF tomorrow.... You can just see more DNFs coming down the road.

The Merc is a great car, but not entirely bullet-proof and I just don't see Hamilton putting together a string of results to overhaul Nico.

Hamilton may do it if his luck turns around, but it's a big ask if Rosberg wins tomorrow.

You have to hand it to Rosberg though... He's getting it done!

Edit.
Hamilton has a big task ahead tomorrow... I just hope he learned a lesson from Germany and takes it bit cooler during the race. Damage limitation is imperative, a DNF would be disastrous.

 

Rosberg all the way for me, can't see how he can lose it now. He's had the rub of the green and put in the results.

I can see him winning it before the final race

 

The double points fiasco may prevent that. Bloody ridiculous idea.

 

I expect Rosberg to extend the gap beyond 50 points. I hope Hamilton doesn't pull back a 49 point deficit in the last race, it's to unbearable to think of!

 

If that were to happen... I'd burn all my internet capable devices and dig up the cable that runs in to the house.

 

The FIA would be morally obliged to set off an emp before the chequered flag.

 

And do the honourable thing by ritually sacrificing Bernie.

 

I doubt they would need it, if something like that happened I think an immediate mental shockwave of outrage/delight would reverberate around the world causing a massive seismic event sending us back to the stone-age.

hmm, I like that, I think I'm gonna write the script on the back of a kleenex and send it to Roland Emmerich.

 

I still prefer the ritual Bernie purging.

 

Indeed. A result of that kind would be worse than Spa 2008, Brazil 08, Aus 09 and the entire 2007 season all rolled into one great cataclysmic event.

The consequences of this would just tear a hole in the space time continuum and life as we know it would alter on an irreversible scale.

please log in to view this image

Seriously, my hope is the double score does not affect the outcome of the WDC, as it is a bollocks rule that should never have even made it outside of Bernie's brain.

 

Don't overly concern your selves lads, Hammy's still the man most likely to achieve.

Driving a burnt out wreck and still pissing over your teamate, awesome, only 11 points now.

Where is that one fingered 4 time WDC, not seen much of him recently, forgot his name now, seems there's real driver, an Aussie guy leading the Red Bull outfit, Danny somebody.

All best wishes Ernie.

 

Hamilton had a good amount of luck with the safety car timing and Rosberg' s car having a bit of a splutter during that period. Still an impressive drive by Hamilton, but not quite piddling all over Rosberg.

 

he was one of the two WDC's that couldn't keep his car facing the right way, but wasn't lucky enough to have the SC save him. Good call on the Aussie, he showed what a good driver he is when he beat a very over-hyped driver in a much better car A good strategy call from Mercedes, just not as good as RBR's for Ricciardo.

 

That was one very entertaining race...of course Rosberg will whine because he needs to establish an excuse for being beaten in a good car by a pit lane starter....'why wouldn't he let me pass'. I think he asked the question a few times even though he said he didn't. Rosberg is spoilt and has it in his demeanor, Lewis is plain hungry. I still don't understand why Mercedes have let Lewis down. Tyre strategy for him was questionable. But he is only 4 points behind where he wanted to be. Judging by his moods and comment he wants Mercedes to do better for him personally...they need too.